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Yes. A June 2023 threat assessment by Recorded Future’s Insikt Group identified state actors as the most capable and likely threat to submarine cables and the systems around them. That is a risk assessment—not proof that any particular cable failure was state-sponsored. Accidental damage from ships and fishing vessels is more frequent, and the consequences of any outage depend heavily on available routes and repair capacity.
Why submarine cables matter
Submarine cables carry most international data traffic. Recorded Future’s 2023 assessment said they carried 99% of intercontinental internet traffic and data, as well as voice communications, and supported more than $10 trillion in financial transactions daily. Those figures describe the report’s account in 2023, not a new measurement.
The same assessment estimated 529 cable systems in operation. In a July 2025 follow-up, Recorded Future counted 597 subsea cables in operation or under construction as of April 2025. The figures use different dates and describe different scopes, so they should not be read as a direct measure of growth in operating systems.
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What the 2023 report says about the threats
Recorded Future’s June 2023 assessment separated how often damage happens from how damaging a capable hostile operation could be. Ship and fishing-vessel accidents were described as more frequent, but state actors were assessed as the leading threat in capability and likelihood for sabotage and espionage. Hacktivists and ransomware groups were assessed as lower-likelihood, lower-capability risks to the wider cable ecosystem.
These categories are not interchangeable: a cable break is evidence of damage, not by itself evidence of sabotage, state sponsorship, or spying. Recorded Future’s 2025 review reinforces the need for caution. It compiled 44 publicly reported cable damages in 32 distinct groupings across 2024 and 2025; those are the report’s compiled public cases, not a complete census or a count of proven attacks.
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Physical damage and espionage are different risks
A deliberate operation could seek to interrupt service or collect intelligence, while ordinary maritime activity can damage cables without hostile intent. The 2023 assessment linked its risk outlook to Russia’s war against Ukraine, China’s preparations for possible forceful unification with Taiwan, and worsening U.S.–China relations. It also raised espionage concerns about the expanding role of Chinese companies in cable deployment, ownership, and operation. These are the report’s geopolitical assessments and concerns, not findings that a named company or state carried out espionage.
The risk extends beyond the seabed
The cable itself is only one part of the system. Recorded Future’s 2023 analysis included landing stations, third-party providers, and the hardware and software used to operate and connect cable systems. Landing stations can present more accessible physical targets than deepwater cables. Remote network management can also create cyber exposure when operators rely on third-party services.
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The report additionally noted that Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft had moved beyond buying capacity toward direct cable ownership. It raised questions about market concentration and digital sovereignty; that observation is not evidence of misconduct by those companies.
Why damage does not always mean a major outage
Consequences depend on where damage occurs and what alternatives are available. Recorded Future’s 2025 report identifies inadequate redundancy, limited route diversity, and limited repair capacity as factors that can worsen disruption. A region with few alternative routes or slow access to repairs may face greater effects whether the cause is malicious, accidental, or natural.
The report discusses cable damage in the Baltic Sea and around Taiwan, while noting the difficulty of determining intent and state direction in individual incidents. It says intelligence services assessed multiple Baltic cases as likely maritime accidents and reports that a Swedish prosecutor attributed one cable damage to accidental anchor dragging. Around Taiwan, the report describes incidents attributed to natural deterioration alongside cases involving suspicious vessel behavior or legal proceedings. Suspicion or unusual vessel activity alone does not establish who caused damage or why.
What can make cable networks more resilient?
In its 2025 report, Recorded Future recommends measures aimed at prevention, detection, and recovery. They are recommendations, not guarantees against disruption or proof of a universally adopted standard.
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- Protect vulnerable areas: Establish cable-protection zones and enforce rules against damaging activity.
- Assess and test systems: Conduct regular, system-specific threat assessments and stress tests.
- Improve detection: Strengthen surveillance and monitoring for cable infrastructure and related activity.
- Secure landing stations: Improve physical and operational security at facilities where cables reach shore.
- Share regional intelligence: Improve information-sharing among relevant regional stakeholders.
- Prepare to restore service: Invest in repair and maintenance capacity.
- Reduce single-route dependence: Add redundant cables and diversify routes geographically.
How current is this assessment?
The latest relevant analysis here is Recorded Future’s July 17, 2025 report, which includes figures through April 2025. No comprehensive 2026 update is established here. The 2023 assessment is useful for understanding the identified threat surface and geopolitical concerns; the 2025 follow-up adds later damage reporting and emphasizes uncertainty about intent. Neither supports treating every cable cut as sabotage.
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