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Yes, according to a report by Stocktwits citing Glassnode: holders who bought Bitcoin during the previous rally were moving more coins per day than at any earlier point in 2026. The reported average cost basis was about $97,000 for the one-to-two-year cohort and about $89,000 for the six-to-12-month cohort. Stocktwits put Bitcoin at about $84,673 when it published its report on October 3, 2026, below both estimates. Coin movement, however, does not prove that every transfer was a sale or reveal why a holder moved coins.
What the reported Bitcoin data says
Stocktwits, in an October 3, 2026 report by Anushka Basu, attributed the on-chain finding and cost-basis estimates to Glassnode. The report said buyers from the previous rally were moving more coins each day than at any earlier point that year. Its description of the chart says it tracked BTC moved from one entity to another, using a seven-day average. The linked Glassnode post was not independently accessible, so the figures below should be understood as Stocktwits’ account of Glassnode’s analysis, not a direct review of Glassnode’s underlying dataset.
| Buyer cohort | Reported average cost basis | Comparison with the reported BTC price |
|---|---|---|
| Bought one to two years earlier | About $97,000, attributed to Glassnode by Stocktwits | Above Stocktwits’ approximately $84,673 price snapshot on October 3, 2026 |
| Bought six to 12 months earlier | About $89,000, attributed to Glassnode by Stocktwits | Above Stocktwits’ approximately $84,673 price snapshot on October 3, 2026 |
Against that dated price snapshot, both groups’ reported average cost bases were higher than Bitcoin’s price. That is why Stocktwits described the cohorts as underwater. These are cohort averages, not the purchase price or profit-and-loss position of every person in either group.
Coin movement is not proof of an exchange sale
The chart description concerns BTC moving between entities, averaged over seven days. A transfer can indicate that coins changed hands or moved between entities, but the reported metric alone does not establish that the coins were sold on an exchange, identify the owner’s motive, or show that an individual holder sold at a loss. The careful reading is that the named cohorts were unusually active in moving coins—not that every movement was a confirmed sale.
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Stocktwits also said holders who bought during the decline were not moving their coins. In that account, the observed activity was concentrated in earlier buyer groups rather than spread across all holders. The accessible report does not provide enough underlying data or methodology to independently test that interpretation.
What the “Rejected” chart labels do—and do not—show
Stocktwits said Glassnode’s chart marked two approaches to the cohort cost-basis lines as “Rejected.” The report did not explain those labels. Without further detail, they should not be treated as a stated Glassnode explanation of why the price failed to cross a level, or as proof of a specific future market direction.
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Keep the market context separate from the cohort finding
The same Stocktwits report included market comparisons and a separate analyst’s price view. Those details do not change what the cohort-movement metric measures.
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- Bitcoin versus the S&P 500: Stocktwits reported Glassnode’s estimate that Bitcoin outperformed the index on more than half of trading days in the prior week. It described June’s win rate as one fifth of trading days and Bitcoin’s weakest stretch in six years. The report defines win rate as the share of trading days when Bitcoin outperformed the index.
- Longer-term returns: Stocktwits attributed four-year compound annual growth rates of 42% for Bitcoin and 19% for the S&P 500 to Willy Woo. The accessible report did not provide the calculation dates or methodology, so these figures are reported attribution, not an independently checked comparison.
- Short-term price view: Stocktwits quoted Ted Pillows saying, “Bitcoin tapped the $87,000 zone,” and attributed to him the view that a weekly close above $87,500 was needed for a strong rally. He also saw a chance of a drop below $80,000 if that threshold was not reached. These were conditional analyst views, not outcomes established by the cohort data.
How to interpret the report
- Read the cost-basis numbers as approximate averages for defined purchase windows, not universal break-even prices.
- Keep the October 3, 2026 BTC price snapshot attached to the comparison; it is not a current quote.
- Distinguish movement between entities from a confirmed sale and from evidence about an investor’s intent.
- Treat the on-chain finding as Stocktwits’ reporting of Glassnode’s analysis; the underlying post and full calculation method were not available in the accessible material.
- Do not treat the separate analyst threshold as a guarantee or an individualized trading recommendation.
Source and reporting limits
The figures and interpretations in this article come from Stocktwits’ report by Anushka Basu, published October 3, 2026, at 9:37 a.m. EDT. Stocktwits attributed the cohort finding and cost-basis estimates to Glassnode, but the underlying Glassnode post was not accessible for direct verification. Its report also attributed the market-return comparison to Willy Woo and the conditional price outlook to Ted Pillows; those are separate claims with different attribution.
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