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Probably—but indirectly. Apple’s expected entry into foldable phones could bring millions of curious iPhone owners into the category, expanding the market in which Samsung already leads. It does not yet prove that Apple will make Galaxy Z Fold sales rise. Current evidence shows Samsung has momentum of its own, while Apple’s first-year supply is expected to be limited and heavily concentrated at the premium end.
Why Apple could grow Samsung’s market without selling Samsung phones
Foldables still represent only about 2% of the overall smartphone market, according to Counterpoint Research. That leaves substantial room for Apple to attract people who have never considered a folding phone rather than simply take customers from Samsung.
International Data Corporation (IDC) forecasts 20.6 million foldable smartphone shipments in 2025 and 30% year-over-year category growth in 2026. IDC analyst Francisco Jeronimo describes Apple’s entry as a potential turning point because Apple has often helped unfamiliar product categories reach mainstream consumers. That is a category-expansion argument, not a measured claim that Apple will increase Samsung’s sales.
TechRadar’s analysis makes a similar, but unproven, distinction: early Apple buyers may mainly be existing iPhone users upgrading to a foldable iPhone, while Galaxy Z Fold owners have less reason to switch platforms. If that pattern holds, Samsung could benefit from greater consumer awareness, retailer space, accessory demand and software support even while competing directly with Apple.
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Samsung still leads the foldable market forecast
Counterpoint’s September 7, 2026 forecast puts Samsung at 38% of global foldable shipments in 2026, ahead of Apple at 25% and Huawei at 22%. Counterpoint says Apple could ship up to six million foldables in that year. These are forecasts, not audited final sales, and Apple’s initial ramp is expected to be constrained by supply.
| Measure | Samsung | Apple | How to read it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 global foldable shipment share | 38% forecast | 25% forecast | Samsung remains the forecast leader in foldables. |
| Expected first-year Apple unit share | Not stated by IDC | Above 22% forecast | IDC’s estimate covers Apple’s first year in the category. |
| Expected first-year value share | Not stated by IDC | 34% forecast | Apple’s revenue share is projected to exceed its unit share. |
| Expected Apple average price | Not stated | $2,400 forecast | IDC’s expected average price indicates a premium positioning. |
Counterpoint also expects cumulative global foldable shipments to pass 100 million by the end of 2026. The same forecast says Samsung’s lead will coexist with a larger overall market, which is why Apple can be a growth catalyst without immediately displacing Samsung.
Samsung has a stronger starting point than the headline suggests
Samsung’s current demand is not waiting for Apple. Counterpoint’s US carrier-and-retail-panel dashboard estimates that Galaxy Z Fold7 sell-through was 36.6% higher than Galaxy Z Fold6 over the comparable first five months. The Fold7 launched in the United States on July 25, 2025; the dashboard’s monthly data runs through July 2026.
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Those figures are sell-through estimates rather than channel shipments and may be revised. They show that the Fold7 reversed the prior generation’s US sales decline, but they cannot show that Apple caused the increase. The more defensible conclusion is that Samsung has a positive incumbent baseline before Apple’s foldable arrives.
Samsung MX President and COO Won-joon Choi framed the company’s position this way in an interview reported by TechRadar in 2026: “You know, rather than focusing on the competition, I think we have been focusing on our consumers. What is the experience that we can bring to consumers, and how complete are those experiences? I think healthy competition with other companies will bring more innovations, and then bring more benefits to consumers. We are welcoming others to join this category, which we created back in 2019.”
The market is moving toward wide, book-style foldables
Counterpoint forecasts 27.5 million foldable smartphone panel shipments in 2026, about 24% more than in 2025. Its panel analysis says in-fold designs moved from parity with clamshells in 2025 to a clear lead in 2026.
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In-fold phones
Book-style devices such as the Galaxy Z Fold line open into a wider screen suited to multitasking, document work, reading and video. Counterpoint attributes their growing share to larger-screen experiences, productivity and better profitability. Their disadvantages remain greater weight, thickness and mechanical complexity than conventional phones.
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Clamshells fold a conventional-size phone in half, prioritizing pocketability and a smaller closed footprint. They are easier to position as style and convenience products, but offer less tablet-like space when opened.
Tri-fold designs
Tri-folds can provide an even larger display, but they remain showcase products rather than the category’s default. Additional hinges increase weight, durability challenges, manufacturing yield pressure and cost. Their existence does not mean every foldable buyer needs a three-panel device.
What Apple’s entry is likely to look like economically
IDC projects Apple above 22% first-year unit share but 34% value share, with an expected average price of $2,400. The gap matters: Apple could account for a larger portion of industry revenue than units because its launch model is expected to be expensive.
A high price can help Samsung in two ways. It leaves room for Galaxy Z Fold models to serve buyers who want a wide-screen foldable at a lower price than Apple’s expected flagship, and it establishes premium foldables as a distinct category rather than treating them as ordinary smartphone upgrades. It can also limit Apple’s volume if supply and affordability remain constrained.
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Buy the Galaxy Z Fold7 now if
- You want a book-style foldable that is already available in your market.
- Your priority is a mature, multi-generation hinge and software platform rather than first-generation Apple hardware.
- You need a foldable before Apple’s launch timing, regional availability and stock are confirmed.
Wait for Apple if
- You already use an iPhone and depend on Apple’s ecosystem, services or accessories.
- You are willing to pay a forecast premium price for Apple’s first foldable design.
- You want to compare real-world durability, battery life, weight, crease visibility, multitasking and app support before committing.
Before purchasing a Fold7—or any successor such as the Galaxy Z Fold8—check current regional pricing, inventory, warranty terms and trade-in offers. The available market evidence does not establish a universal best choice, and Apple’s final product name, launch date and specifications should be confirmed before treating forecasts as buying facts.
What the broader smartphone numbers do—and do not—show
Omdia’s preliminary third-quarter 2026 estimate places Samsung at 23% and Apple at 22% of all global smartphone shipments. Those figures include non-folding phones, so they cannot be substituted for Counterpoint’s foldable-only shares. Omdia says Samsung’s August 2026 Galaxy Z Fold8 and Flip8 launches supported its premium positioning and refers to the “iPhone Duo” as Apple’s entry into foldables.
The distinction is important: Samsung can lead foldables while Apple remains a powerful overall smartphone rival, and a near tie in total smartphone shipments does not establish a tie in foldable sales.
Does Apple entering foldables mean the category is mainstream?
Not yet. Apple’s participation would be a strong awareness signal, but foldables would still represent a small fraction of all smartphones even under the growth forecasts. Mainstream status requires sustained adoption across price bands, dependable supply, durable hardware, broad app support and repeat purchases—not one premium launch.
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Random freezes, missing sound and display glitches usually trace back to one bad driver. Find and replace yours safely.Free scan · under a minuteThe most likely near-term outcome is a larger premium foldable market. Apple supplies attention and new buyers; Samsung supplies accumulated hinge, software and form-factor experience. Whether that translates into higher Galaxy Z Fold sales is a hypothesis supported by category-growth logic, not a result demonstrated by current data.
The practical verdict
Apple may become Samsung’s best foldable salesperson because it can make folding phones familiar to a much larger audience. Samsung enters that moment as the forecast 2026 leader, with a measurable Fold7 sales recovery and products already available. Expect competition to intensify and the category to expand, but do not claim Apple has already increased Samsung sales until comparable post-launch data can isolate that effect.
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