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New Constructs, a research firm, has called a potential Anthropic initial public offering the “most ridiculous IPO of 2026,” according to a CNBC report dated October 7, 2026. The label is the firm’s opinion, not a market outcome. Its case rests on a valuation it considers far too high for the losses attributed to the AI company. At the time of that report, Anthropic had not made its prospectus public, so no listing date, IPO price or audited public financial filing was available.
What the analyst is arguing
CNBC reports that New Constructs values Anthropic at about $150 billion and argues against a potential $2 trillion valuation. The firm’s blunt conclusion, as CNBC quotes it: “We don’t think Anthropic has a viable business.” CNBC attributes that sentence to the firm itself and does not name an individual speaker, so the line should be credited to New Constructs.
The valuation math
The core of the argument is a comparison between the price being discussed and the profit needed to justify it. According to CNBC’s account of the firm’s reasoning, Anthropic would need profits roughly twice Nvidia’s trailing four-quarter net income to support a $2 trillion valuation. CNBC reports that Nvidia’s net income over those four quarters topped $190 billion. Doubling that implies Anthropic would need profits above roughly $380 billion, by the report’s own arithmetic.
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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsThese are inputs stated as part of New Constructs’ argument. CNBC does not present them as a valuation model that others have reproduced, so treat the $150 billion estimate and the profit requirement as the firm’s figures rather than established facts.
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The financial figures in circulation
Several figures about Anthropic’s finances are in public reporting, but they come from different kinds of sources and carry different weight. None has been checked against an audited public filing.
| Figure | Value | Who reported or claimed it | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 revenue | $4.6 billion | Reuters, citing a leaked copy of a prospectus, as cited by CNBC | Reported from a leaked document; not an audited public filing |
| 2025 net loss | $42 billion | Reuters, citing the same leaked prospectus, as cited by CNBC | Reported from a leaked document; not an audited public filing |
| Annualized revenue run rate | $65 billion, reported as seven times the year-earlier level | Anthropic, which said so at the end of July, as reported by CNBC | Company claim; a run rate, not full-year revenue |
| Projected annualized revenue by end of 2026 | $100 billion | The New York Times, in a September report, as cited by CNBC | Projection, not a result |
| Q2 2026 revenue and profit | $11.5 billion revenue, with back-to-back operating profits | Yahoo Finance, October 8 report | Unverified; does not reconcile with the CNBC account |
| Valuation | About $150 billion, against a potential $2 trillion | New Constructs, as reported by CNBC | Analyst estimate, with the $2 trillion figure being argued against |
Why the October 8 account cannot be merged with the rest
Yahoo Finance’s October 8 report describes Q2 2026 revenue of $11.5 billion and operating profits in consecutive quarters. That is a materially different picture from the losses in the CNBC account. The available reporting does not tie the Yahoo figures to a primary source, and it does not explain how they fit with the reported 2025 net loss. Until the prospectus or audited results are public, treat the two accounts as separate and unresolved, and avoid building a single financial timeline from them.
Run-rate claims versus full-year revenue
A run rate annualizes a recent period, so a $65 billion run rate does not mean Anthropic has earned $65 billion in a year. The $100 billion year-end figure is a trajectory reported by The New York Times, not a result. Readers comparing these numbers with the $4.6 billion 2025 revenue figure should keep in mind that they measure different things.
Beyond valuation: the open-source argument
New Constructs’ case also points to the possibility that open-source AI models could pressure the economics of closed, proprietary models such as Anthropic’s. The coverage presents this as part of the firm’s reasoning and does not quantify how large that pressure would be or how quickly it could arrive.
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How much weight to give the firm’s record
CNBC’s account places New Constructs’ earlier calls in mixed territory, which means its track record neither confirms nor rules out the Anthropic call.
Calls that went against the firm
The firm criticized WeWork ahead of its withdrawn IPO. It was bearish on Allbirds, whose assets were later sold. It also named DoorDash its “most ridiculous” IPO pick for 2020, but DoorDash rose sharply on its first trading day and later had a much larger market capitalization.
Rank #4
What the record does and does not show
Past hits and misses are relevant context, but they do not settle whether a particular IPO is overvalued. The Anthropic assessment has to be judged against the reported figures and the valuation assumptions behind them.
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The argument can be tested as the following information becomes public:
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- Anthropic’s published prospectus, which CNBC reported was not public as of October 7, 2026.
- Audited results for 2025 and 2026 that confirm or revise the leaked-prospectus revenue and loss figures.
- Final IPO terms, including the valuation and offering price, and a confirmed listing date.
- A primary-source explanation of the Yahoo Finance Q2 2026 figures, or a correction to them.
- Whether the reported revenue run rate turns into full-year revenue at the level projected for year-end 2026.
The Bottom Line
“Most ridiculous” is one research firm’s opinion about a valuation that has not yet been tested in a public offering. The firm’s strongest point is the gap between a potential $2 trillion valuation and the profits it says would be required. The strongest counterpoint is that Anthropic’s own revenue claims are growing quickly, though those claims remain unaudited.
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