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Yes. A 2026 study finds at least a 0.92 probability that the Antarctic Ice Sheet will lose mass through this century, even under aggressive emissions reductions. But continued loss does not mean emissions no longer matter: the study also finds at least a 0.89 probability that higher emissions will cause greater Antarctic mass loss by 2100.
What the 2026 study says—and what it does not
The study, Committed Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss by the end of the twenty-first century, was published in Nature Geoscience in 2026. Its authors estimate that Antarctic mass loss through 2100 is very likely across the emissions pathways they examined, including aggressive reductions. Their probability estimate for continued loss is at least 0.92.
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That is a statement about the likelihood of continued mass loss, not a claim that the amount of loss is fixed. The same study estimates at least a 0.89 probability that higher emissions will produce greater Antarctic mass loss by 2100. Cutting emissions can therefore limit the scale of the risk even if it does not eliminate this century’s loss.
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The finding concerns the Antarctic Ice Sheet, especially grounded ice. When grounded ice flows into the ocean and melts, it adds water and contributes to sea-level rise. Floating sea ice and floating ice shelves are not interchangeable with grounded ice: the study’s headline result is about ice-sheet mass loss and its contribution to sea level.
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Why the ice sheet can lose mass even as snowfall increases
Antarctica can gain snow on its surface while still losing ice overall. The IPCC’s 2021 assessment says dynamic losses driven by ocean warming and ice-shelf disintegration are likely to outpace increased snowfall this century. Ice shelves float at the edges of the continent and buttress some of the grounded ice behind them. If they weaken or break apart, grounded ice can flow more rapidly into the ocean.
The IPCC assessment and the 2026 study address the same broad direction of change, but they are not the same analysis. The IPCC provides an assessment across scenarios; the newer paper estimates probabilities using a calibrated model emulator. A 2018 study also found that Antarctic mass loss would continue under warming constrained below 2°C, while noting gaps in knowledge about Antarctic ocean forcing and possible nonlinear responses.
What the reported outcomes mean for sea level
For a very high-emissions scenario, the 2026 study reports a median Antarctic contribution of 15.7 cm by 2100 and a 95th-percentile contribution of 25.4 cm. These are projections for Antarctica’s contribution alone, not forecasts of total global sea-level rise. The 25.4 cm figure is a high-end percentile: it is not the central estimate or a hard maximum.
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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems| Emissions context | Finding by 2100 | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Aggressive emissions reductions | At least 0.92 probability of Antarctic mass loss during the 21st century; the study does not give a sea-level figure for this pathway in the reported results here. | This is a probability that loss occurs, not a measure of how much sea level rises. |
| Higher emissions | At least 0.89 probability that higher emissions lead to greater Antarctic mass loss than lower emissions. | This compares the direction of the emissions effect; it is not itself a sea-level amount. |
| Very high emissions | 15.7 cm median and 25.4 cm at the 95th percentile for Antarctica’s sea-level contribution. | The median is the central estimate; the 95th percentile describes a higher outcome in the projection distribution, not a maximum. |
Do not compare the 95th percentile directly with a median as though they were equally likely central forecasts. And do not add these Antarctic figures to a global total without accounting for the other contributors to sea-level rise and the scenario assumptions behind each estimate.
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How the projections were made—and why they have a range
The 2026 authors trained a machine-learning emulator on simulations from the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, then used Bayesian calibration against satellite observations to explore how climate forcing and ice-sheet assumptions affect projections. The satellite observations used for that calibration covered 2002–2021, according to the study.
The paper finds that ice-model features dominate uncertainty in its raw simulations on average. Uncertainty also passes through climate forcing, atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, ice-sheet dynamics, and the physics used to translate ice loss into sea-level contribution. Choices such as the rules used to represent ice sliding and the way ice-shelf melt is parameterized can change the result. These uncertainties explain why projections have a range; they do not erase the study’s finding that continued loss this century is very likely.
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Why the result stops at 2100
The paper restricts its emulator projections to 2100 because the model ensemble is too small to capture strong nonlinearities that may emerge in the 22nd century. Its probabilities and sea-level figures should therefore not be extended to later centuries as if they were long-term forecasts. They answer a narrower question: what Antarctic mass loss and sea-level contribution could look like by the end of this century under the scenarios modeled.
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The practical distinction is between whether Antarctica is likely to keep losing mass this century and how large that loss may become. The study finds the first outcome very likely even with aggressive reductions, while also finding that higher emissions are very likely to worsen the loss. For planning, the reported median and high-percentile figures are Antarctic inputs to a wider sea-level assessment—not complete local forecasts. Communities making decisions about infrastructure need sea-level projections that combine all contributors and account for local conditions.
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