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A Messina Group poll reported on 3 October 2026 found that 49% supported the UK rejoining the European Union, while 28.5% opposed it. That is almost half, not a majority. The survey covered 11,461 people between 12 and 24 September, according to The Independent, which attributed the figures to The Guardian’s reporting. The poll’s original questionnaire and full technical documentation are not available in that coverage, so its precise wording and detailed methodology cannot be independently checked.
What the September poll found
The headline result is a 49% share in favour of rejoining and 28.5% against. The remaining respondents were not included in either of those two figures; the report does not give a complete breakdown of their answers. Because 49% is one percentage point below 50%, the result should not be described as a majority.
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The Messina Group surveyed 11,461 people from 12 to 24 September 2026. The Guardian report republished by AOL says the survey was weighted by the result of the 2016 referendum and tested seven possible UK-EU relationship options. AOL’s republication of The Guardian’s report provides those details. Neither report supplies the original questionnaire, full tables or complete technical note; exact question wording, response categories, recruitment method and weighting details beyond that reported basis therefore remain unverified.
Rejoining is not the only closer-relationship option respondents considered
The reported TMG results also cover alternatives to full EU membership. Support and opposition were reported as follows:
#1 Best Overall
| Option or preference | Support or preference | Opposition | Source and qualification |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rejoin the EU | 49% | 28.5% | TMG, September 2026; as reported by The Independent and The Guardian via AOL. |
| Keep the existing relationship while cutting as many trade barriers as possible | 48.2% | 20.9% | TMG, September 2026; as reported by The Independent and The Guardian via AOL. |
| Join a customs union | 47.1% | 20.7% | TMG, September 2026; as reported by The Independent and The Guardian via AOL. |
| Join the single market | 45.1% | not stated in The Guardian’s reported figures | TMG, September 2026; The Guardian via AOL. |
| Associate membership | 45.5% | not stated in The Guardian’s reported figures | TMG, September 2026; The Guardian via AOL. |
These figures describe different arrangements, from EU membership to narrower economic ties. The published accounts do not establish that every option was mutually exclusive or presented with identical detailed terms, so they should not be treated as a definitive ranking of policy packages.
A separate Ipsos poll asked different questions
In a distinct poll published on 8 June 2026, Ipsos found that 52% of Britons thought the UK should apply to rejoin the EU, while 33% said it should stay out. Ipsos also asked about a hypothetical referendum: 58% of likely voters said they would vote to rejoin and 37% to stay out. Among respondents who chose a side, the referendum result was 61% to 39%.
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This was not another measurement of the September TMG result. Ipsos interviewed a representative probability sample of 1,137 British adults aged 18 and over through its UK KnowledgePanel from 14 to 20 May 2026, then weighted the results to match the population profile. The work was conducted with King’s College London and UK in a Changing Europe. See Ipsos’s publication and technical note for the survey details. The two polls differ in timing, sample and question, and their figures should not be combined into a trend.
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Support for rejoining does not settle the question of a referendum
Ipsos measured views on when a referendum should take place separately from how people might vote in one. In its May 2026 survey, 48% supported holding a referendum before the next general election and 29% opposed it. For a referendum after the next election, 49% supported the idea and 26% opposed it. These are Ipsos findings, not results from the September TMG poll.
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TMG’s reported figures also show varied preferences about timing: 25.9% favoured rejoining immediately, 22.9% preferred rejoining within three years and 8.4% preferred doing so over the next decade, according to The Independent and The Guardian via AOL. The available reporting does not establish how these timing preferences relate to support for each possible relationship arrangement.
Views vary by age and past political choice
Ipsos’s May 2026 survey found differences by age: 68% of 18–34-year-olds and 58% of 35–54-year-olds said they would vote to rejoin, while 50% of respondents aged 55 and over said they would vote to stay out. Ipsos also reported party-voter splits: 84% of Labour voters, 80% of Liberal Democrat voters and 86% of Green voters would vote to rejoin; 56% of Conservative voters and 71% of Reform voters would vote to stay out. These are subgroup results from Ipsos’s survey, not from TMG’s September poll. The figures and question context appear in Ipsos’s findings.
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Why the figures do not predict a referendum result
A survey response about rejoining or voting in a hypothetical referendum is not the same as an election result. Campaign arguments, the precise terms on offer and the choices voters are asked to make can affect how people respond. Keiran Pedley, Ipsos’s Director of Politics, cautioned: “We should be aware that a future referendum might play out differently in practice.” He also noted that immigration remains an issue likely to feature in a campaign and that presenting trade-offs around the UK-EU relationship can produce a more complex picture. His comments appear in Ipsos’s report.
The wider TMG findings reported by The Guardian offer examples of those trade-offs, though the report does not establish that respondents were told they were conditions for EU re-entry. More than two-thirds reportedly considered EU trade more important than trade with the US or China if they had to choose; four in five wanted to keep the pound. On the European Convention on Human Rights, 53.4% were in favour of remaining and 24.2% against, according to The Guardian via AOL.
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The same report says 52.4% thought leaving the EU had been wrong and 29.7% right, with 17.9% unsure. Asked whether Brexit had been a success, 12.2% said yes, 54.9% said no, 23.2% said neither and 9.7% did not know. These are TMG figures as reported by The Guardian, not independently verified results from a pollster’s published data release.
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