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At the New Azerbaijan Party’s congress in Baku on October 2, 2026, President Ilham Aliyev called the United States and China the world’s only superpowers and described Azerbaijan as a strategic partner to both. He used the speech to connect that diplomatic position with energy exports, refining capacity and transport corridors. His figures and forecasts are claims made in the speech, not independently verified outcomes.
What Aliyev said about the United States and China
Speaking as Azerbaijan’s president and chairman of the New Azerbaijan Party at its 8th congress, Aliyev referred to a comprehensive strategic partnership declaration with China and a Strategic Charter with the United States. He then said: “These are the world’s two superpowers; there is no third.” He presented Azerbaijan as a strategic partner to both countries. The official presidential account of the October 2, 2026 congress records the speech and its wording.
“Only two superpowers” is Aliyev’s political characterization, not an uncontested academic or official consensus about global power. The speech establishes what he said; it does not provide an independent assessment of other countries’ influence.
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Aliyev described Azerbaijan as a supplier of crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, electricity, petrochemicals and fertilizers. He also said countries were requesting Azerbaijani petroleum products and argued that energy is becoming a more important geopolitical and security factor. Those statements express his account of the country’s role and market demand; the speech does not independently quantify either.
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Exports and processing capacity are different claims
Aliyev cited potential petroleum-products capacity of 30 million tons: 7 million tons processed at a refinery in Azerbaijan and 23 million tons processed abroad. The cited passage gives no measurement period or methodology. This is a capacity figure he presented, not a measure of current exports or evidence that all of the capacity is being used.
Production increases remain prospective
Aliyev said contracts involving new production, including oil fields acquired abroad, would help stabilize or increase output as the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli field experiences natural decline. The speech does not identify the contracts in enough detail to assess their terms or independently confirm the expected effect. He also said a gas contract signed “last month” would provide an additional 5 billion cubic meters; the excerpt does not name the counterparties or specify the time basis for that amount.
What the transit figures mean
Aliyev cited 16 million tons of transit cargo as the expected volume for 2026 and 30 million tons as a medium-term goal. The first is a forecast, not a confirmed year-end result; the second is a target, not an achieved volume. The speech offers no third-party transport data against which to verify either figure.
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| Speech claim | What Aliyev said | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Strategic partnership formats | Formats with 10 EU member states | A figure cited by Aliyev in 2026; the passage does not list the states. |
| Petroleum-products capacity | 30 million tons: 7 million processed in Azerbaijan and 23 million abroad | Potential capacity, with no period or methodology specified in the cited passage; not a current export total. |
| Additional gas | 5 billion cubic meters under a contract signed “last month” | A forecast attributed to Aliyev; the excerpt names neither counterparties nor time basis. |
| Transit cargo in 2026 | 16 million tons expected | A 2026 expectation stated in the speech, not a year-end result. |
| Medium-term transit cargo | 30 million tons | A target, not an achieved volume. |
All figures in the table are claims from Aliyev’s October 2, 2026 speech. The official record is a primary source for his remarks, but it does not independently audit capacity, document the referenced contracts, or establish that forecasts and targets will be met.
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