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About 180,000 Aldabra giant tortoises (Aldabrachelys gigantea) live on Aldabra Atoll in the Seychelles, according to a 2026 study in Ecology and Evolution. The University of Exeter’s announcement gives a best estimate of almost 183,000 adult and sub-adult tortoises. Both figures are statistical estimates, not individual headcounts. They do not show that the population nearly doubled since the late-1990s estimate of about 100,000, because the older and newer numbers were produced with different methods.
How the 2026 estimate was produced
The paper, “Inferring the Abundance of an Island Megaherbivore From Semi-Structured Distance Sampling,” was written by Hillyard and colleagues and published in Ecology and Evolution in 2026. Its data came from monitoring counts collected by Seychelles Islands Foundation staff along transects across Aldabra’s habitats. The University of Exeter’s announcement describes five years of counts, from 2018 through 2022.
Transect counts
Transects are fixed survey routes walked or driven through the vegetation, where observers record the tortoises they see. Aldabra’s terrain is not uniform. Scrub, mangroves, and shade can hide animals from an observer standing a few metres away, so the number of tortoises actually seen varies with the habitat as much as with the population itself.
Correcting for animals that were present but not seen
The study uses a Bayesian hierarchical distance-sampling model. In plain terms, it estimates how likely an observer was to spot a tortoise at a given distance in a given habitat, then scales up the observed counts to account for the animals it expects were present but missed. It estimates two things together: how many tortoises there are, and how detectable they are in each kind of habitat. The result is a modelled estimate, not a tally of every animal on the atoll.
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Two date ranges with different meanings
- Data collection: 2018 to 2022, according to the University of Exeter announcement.
- Estimate period: 2018 to 2021, the period the paper reports the population at approximately 180,000 and apparently relatively stable.
The two ranges overlap but are not identical, so the estimate should not be described as covering exactly the five years of counts.
Why the older figure does not show a doubling
The widely cited late-1990s figure of about 100,000 came from an older survey approach that did not correct for tortoises hidden in dense vegetation or shade. The 2026 model does make that correction. The change in the headline number therefore reflects a change in method as well as in the animals themselves, and the study does not establish how much of the difference is real population change.
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| Estimate | Figure | Method | Period | Directly comparable with 2026? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Late-1990s estimate | About 100,000 | Older survey approach that did not account for animals missed in dense vegetation | Exact survey years not stated in the University of Exeter announcement | No; different method |
| 2026 study, headline figure | Approximately 180,000 | Bayesian hierarchical distance-sampling model | Estimate period 2018 to 2021 (per the paper); counts 2018 to 2022 | Yes, with other 2026 figures from the same model |
| 2026 study, best estimate | Almost 183,000 adult and sub-adult tortoises | Bayesian hierarchical distance-sampling model | Counts 2018 to 2022 (per the University of Exeter announcement) | Yes, with the 2026 headline figure |
Where Aldabra is and why it matters ecologically
Aldabra is part of the Seychelles Outer Islands in the western Indian Ocean. It is a raised coral atoll with four main islands: Picard, Grande Terre, Malabar, and Polymnie. Their combined land area is 155.5 square kilometres. Tortoises were not present on Polymnie during the analysis period, so the sampled population sits on the other three islands.
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Do not confuse this population with the Galápagos. The University of Exeter announcement notes that the Galápagos has a much smaller wild giant-tortoise population, so the two islands should not be compared as if their counts were the same kind of figure.
Conservation history behind the numbers
Heavy exploitation in the 19th century reduced Aldabra’s tortoises to fewer than 1,000, according to the University of Exeter. The atoll was designated a strict nature reserve in 1981 and a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1982. The study attributes the high and stable population in part to that long conservation effort and to invasive-species eradication. Feral goats, which damaged vegetation, were eradicated in 2012.
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Pressures the study identifies
- Drought: longer or more frequent droughts can reduce shade, water, and forage.
- Sea-level rise: a threat to low-lying parts of the atoll.
- Feral cats and black rats: both remain on the atoll and prey on tortoise eggs and hatchlings.
The researchers say that eradicating the remaining invasive mammals could remove a barrier to further population growth and resilience. These are pressures the study identifies, not a forecast of decline.
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What the estimate does not settle
- Conservation status: neither the study nor the university announcement states a current formal threat category. Check a current assessment before describing the species’ status.
- Trend: the paper describes the population as relatively stable during 2018 to 2021. It does not establish a long-term growth or decline trend.
- Precision: uncertainty depends on sampling effort and on how visible tortoises are in each habitat. The figures here are central estimates, not exact counts.
- Age classes: the best estimate of almost 183,000 refers to adult and sub-adult tortoises.
What the researchers said
University of Exeter’s October 7, 2026 announcement includes these statements:
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“More than 180,000 giant tortoises roaming freely on our atoll is proof of what long-term commitment to conservation can achieve. This is wonderful news for Seychelles, for the world, and for everyone who has worked to protect Aldabra.” (Dr Frauke Fleischer-Dogley, CEO of the Seychelles Islands Foundation)
“Aldabra’s giant tortoise monitoring programme is one of the longest running in the region, but the atoll’s dense vegetation makes counting tortoises genuinely difficult in places.” (Dr Nancy Bunbury, study co-author)
“But it’s important to remember that the numbers provide a baseline – not an endpoint.” (Dr Dave Hudson, University of Exeter postdoctoral research associate)
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Sources: University of Exeter, “New study reports largest-ever population estimate for Seychelles’ giant tortoises,” October 7, 2026; Hillyard and colleagues, Ecology and Evolution, 2026.
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