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Investors pouring money into AI data centers are increasingly looking at older, less glamorous infrastructure, including waste management, as a place to find durable cash flows at prices they consider more reasonable. That is the thesis described in The Information’s October 7, 2026 report by Alex Eichenstein. It is an argument made by market participants, not a finding that AI spending has moved waste valuations.
What investors are saying
The report describes a shift in attention rather than an exodus from AI. Digital infrastructure has absorbed much of the capital and headlines, and some infrastructure managers believe that crowding has left mature assets in other sectors under-followed. Nicholas Pepper, a managing director at the infrastructure business of Partners Group, put it this way:
“The intense focus on digital infrastructure means that you increasingly have high-quality mature assets in other more traditional parts of the infrastructure ecosystem, whether that’s in utilities, transport, social infrastructure and so on, which are receiving less of the spotlight.”
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Pepper’s point is that less competition for these assets may mean they can be bought at attractive valuations. That is a claim about the bidding environment, and it is one the report presents from the buyer’s side.
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- Enhanced Mobility & Wide Application: The waste plastic shredding machine comes with movable caster wheels for high flexibility and easy positioning across worksites. The industrial waste shredder handles a wide range of materials including industrial waste, recyclables, and e-waste.
Why waste management is on the list
Waste is the sector that gives the headline its edge, and the report gives three reasons some infrastructure investors find it appealing. These reasons are attributed to a person familiar with Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners’ interest in the sector, not to a named firm spokesperson, so they should be read as that person’s view rather than a formal Morgan Stanley position.
Long-term municipal contracts
Collection and disposal work is often tied to municipal contracts, which can run for years and provide a revenue base that is easier to forecast than many commercial businesses. The report presents this contract structure as the core of the appeal.
Lower commodity exposure
Because waste collection revenue does not depend heavily on commodity prices in the way energy or mining revenue does, the sector may carry less commodity risk. The report describes this as a comparative feature, not a guarantee that waste earnings are insulated from every cost swing.
Shifts in how waste is handled
Some areas are trying to reduce reliance on landfills, which the report says creates openings for investment in alternative treatment. Those openings depend on local policy and project execution, so they are a source of opportunity that is still developing rather than a settled revenue stream.
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The valuation gap, and what the numbers do and do not show
The most quoted figure is a valuation gap between U.S. and European waste companies. According to a person familiar with the matter, U.S. waste companies trade at around 15 times EBITDA, compared with about 10 times for European companies. The report attributes a structural reason to the gap: U.S. firms tend to control more stages of the waste chain, from collection through treatment facilities to landfills, while European operators often sit at a different point in that chain.
These are reported comparisons and explanations. They have not been independently verified against current market data, and they are not a measure of how the AI boom has changed prices. The report does not identify a standalone study that measures a causal effect of AI spending on waste-sector investment or valuation.
The report also cites a transportation and logistics figure that should not be placed next to the waste multiples. It attributes to R.L. Hulett a median EBITDA multiple of 5 times for strategic deals in the broader transportation and logistics sector in the first quarter of 2026, down from 12.7 times in 2025. That is a transaction measure for strategic buyers, not a trading multiple for listed companies, so the two sets of numbers answer different questions.
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| Measure | Figure reported | Period | Source as described in the report | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. waste companies | Around 15x EBITDA | As of the report, October 2026 | A person familiar with the matter | Reported valuation multiple for listed or comparable waste companies |
| European waste companies | Around 10x EBITDA | As of the report, October 2026 | A person familiar with the matter | Reported valuation multiple for European waste companies |
| Transportation and logistics, strategic deals | Median 5x EBITDA | Q1 2026 | R.L. Hulett, as cited in the report | Median deal multiple for strategic transactions |
| Transportation and logistics, strategic deals | Median 12.7x EBITDA | 2025 | R.L. Hulett, as cited in the report | Median deal multiple for strategic transactions |
Beyond garbage: the wider list of sectors
Waste is one example in a broader set. The report names the following categories as areas drawing interest from some investors:
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- 【Low Noise】The blade chamber of the machine is made of thickened materials, which effectively reduce vibration and noise during plastic shredding, ensuring high efficiency and convenience
- 【Enlarge Feed & Drawer】The duckbill-shaped feed inlet facilitates material feeding.The enlarged and extended drawer is designed solely to increase storage space,making it more convenient for material retrieval
- 【Multifunctional Crusher】This shredder is widely used for shredding plastic products made of various materials such as PU, PVC, PC, ABC, PE, PP, and ABS. However, it is not suitable for shredding hard metals
- Transportation and logistics
- Aviation, including airports
- Energy and utilities
- Water infrastructure
- Bridge and road maintenance
- Gas processing
Investors cited two features that recur across these sectors: stable cash yields, and contracted or regulated revenue. Those features are what make a mature asset look different from a construction-stage project, and they are the reason the thesis is framed around cash flow rather than growth.
Three deals the report uses as examples
The report uses three transactions to show that capital is still flowing to digital infrastructure while some investors look elsewhere.
Partners Group and AVK Power Solutions
Partners Group reportedly made an initial $1 billion investment in AVK Power Solutions, a European data-center power provider, announced in August. The deal is an example of traditional infrastructure investors participating directly in the AI buildout, not a move away from it.
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The Aligned Data Centers acquisition
An investor group acquired Aligned Data Centers at an enterprise value of around $40 billion. The report describes the transaction, announced the previous October, as the largest such sale at the time. It is a data-center deal, and it shows how much capital the digital side of the market is still commanding.
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- Blade Hardness: 58–62 HRC (Rockwell C scale) with 0.3–0.5 mm surface coating.
- Blade Gap Tolerance: ±0.1 mm (ensures uniform particle size distribution).
- Shredding Capacity: 200–3,500 kg/h (material-dependent)
- Emergency Stop: EN 60204-1 Category 4/PLe (dual-channel redundancy).
BTG Capital and Stephenville International Airport
BTG Capital acquired the then-closed Stephenville International Airport in Newfoundland in June to restore and modernize it. The report says the airport reopened on October 2, 2026. Brett Stevenson, founder and managing partner at BTG Capital, described the market this way:
“U.S. mega cap investors’ minimum check sizes have gotten so big that they won’t come down and participate in this segment of the market, so it has created a huge economic moat for us.”
Stevenson also described airports as a “very scarce asset class, and obviously scarcity can drive potential multiple arbitrage in the future.” That is the view of one manager with a stake in the outcome, and it should be weighed accordingly.
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The report is not a story about investors abandoning AI. Blackstone has made AI a major theme across its businesses, Partners Group has participated in data-center infrastructure, and BTG Capital has sold power facilities to data centers while investing in other infrastructure. The shift is in portfolio attention and in where some managers see value at the margin.
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- Blade Hardness: 58–62 HRC (Rockwell C scale) with 0.3–0.5 mm surface coating.
- Blade Gap Tolerance: ±0.1 mm (ensures uniform particle size distribution).
- Shredding Capacity: 200–3,500 kg/h (material-dependent)
- Emergency Stop: EN 60204-1 Category 4/PLe (dual-channel redundancy).
The report also flags risks on both sides. For AI-linked infrastructure, it points to construction delays, higher financing costs, and regulatory backlash, any of which could slow the buildout or reduce expected returns. For traditional infrastructure, it notes that transportation and logistics can face cyclical demand, fuel and operating cost pressure, overcapacity, and geopolitical disruption.
A mature, stable-looking asset is not the same as a guaranteed return. The contracts and regulated revenue that make these assets attractive can be renegotiated, reset by regulators, or pressured by costs that a long-term contract does not fully pass through.
How to test the thesis for a specific asset
If you are comparing a traditional infrastructure asset with a digital one, the report’s framing suggests a short checklist:
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- Commodity and fuel exposure: which costs can be passed through, and which sit with the operator?
- Position in the value chain: does the business control collection, treatment, and disposal, or only one stage?
- Multiple basis: is the valuation a trading multiple or a transaction multiple, and from which source and date?
- Check size and exit: how many buyers can write a cheque of the size required, and how liquid is the eventual sale?
- Downside cases: what happens to cash yield under cyclical demand, higher financing costs, or a regulatory change?
Applying this to any headline multiple will tell you more than the headline itself. Whether AI spending is the cause of waste valuations moving is a separate question, and the report does not answer it.
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