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ADP reported that U.S. private-sector employers added 90,000 jobs in September 2026. Pay also continued to rise: base pay grew 3.2% year over year and gross pay grew 4.7%, according to ADP. Those figures point to continued hiring, but they do not establish that ADP’s own business is weakening.
What did ADP’s September jobs report say?
ADP’s September 30, 2026 release estimated that private-sector employment increased by 90,000 jobs in September. The same release put year-over-year base pay growth at 3.2% and gross pay growth at 4.7%. These are ADP’s estimates, not government labor statistics.
The report’s prior-month figure offers context: ADP’s report page says private-sector employment rose by 38,000 in August 2026, which it described as the slowest hiring pace since January. The September increase was larger than August’s, so the two reported monthly figures alone do not show hiring weakening continuously.
How does ADP produce its employment report?
ADP Research produces its National Employment Report with Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab. ADP says the report draws on aggregated, anonymized payroll data covering more than 26 million U.S. employees. ADP is also a commercial provider of payroll and human-resources services to businesses, from small employers to global enterprises.
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Because the estimate is based on ADP payroll records, it is a private-sector measure with its own data coverage and methodology. It should not be treated as interchangeable with government employment statistics. The cited ADP materials do not provide the comparable series, reference-period details, or revision information needed for a numerical comparison here.
Does the data prove the labor market is cooling?
It supports a cautious reading, not a definitive conclusion. ADP characterized August’s 38,000-job increase as the slowest hiring pace since January, while its September release reported 90,000 additional jobs. A single monthly estimate—and a two-month sequence with an increase in September—cannot by itself establish a sustained trend across the labor market.
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Pay growth remained positive in ADP’s September figures, with base pay up 3.2% and gross pay up 4.7% year over year. Those measures describe pay growth, not the number of jobs being created, and do not independently settle whether labor-market conditions are cooling.
Is ADP’s own business feeling the chill?
The available company information does not establish that claim. ADP’s investor-relations page lists July 29, 2026 as the release date for its fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results and says the company provided a fiscal 2027 outlook. But the cited material does not identify a declining business metric, its comparison period, or management’s explanation. Without those specifics, saying ADP’s business is weakening would go beyond the evidence.
ADP’s employment report and its business results answer different questions: the report estimates private-sector employment from payroll data, while company earnings and outlook measures describe ADP’s own operations. The jobs estimate cannot, on its own, demonstrate how ADP’s business is performing.
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