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El Niño is linked to a broad redistribution of tropical rainfall, but its effects vary by region and season. Rainfall often increases across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific while becoming lower than normal over Indonesia and nearby areas. These are historical tendencies—not guarantees for a particular place or year.
What the four maps should help you see
A set of global maps can make El Niño’s large-scale rainfall patterns easier to compare, but the map labels matter as much as the colors. The specific Weather Bee maps could not be verified, so their dates, data, regions and conclusions should not be inferred. The NOAA patterns below provide context for reading maps, not a description of those unverified figures.
El Niño changes the distribution of tropical rainfall. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) describes increased rainfall across the east-central and eastern Pacific, alongside drier-than-normal conditions over northern Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines. The consequences beyond the tropics vary with the season.
How rainfall tendencies vary by season
NOAA CPC summarizes these broad historical associations. They are neither exhaustive nor a forecast for any individual year.
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December–February
- Wetter-than-normal tendencies: coastal Ecuador, northwestern Peru, southern Brazil, central Argentina and equatorial eastern Africa.
- Drier-than-normal tendencies: northern South America, Central America and southern Africa.
June–August
- Wetter-than-normal tendencies: intermountain regions of the United States and central Chile.
- Drier-than-normal tendency: eastern Australia.
These seasonal differences are why a map should identify the months or season it represents. A pattern shown for one part of the year should not be read as a year-round effect.
How to read an El Niño rainfall map
Before comparing maps, check what each one measures and represents. Similar colors can encode different quantities, and maps made from past observations answer a different question from forecasts.
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- Season: Look for the months or three-month season. Rainfall associations change over the annual cycle.
- ENSO phase or event: Check whether the map shows El Niño, La Niña, neutral conditions or a named historical event.
- Quantity and units: Distinguish a precipitation anomaly from percent of normal. An anomaly is a difference from a reference average; its units should be stated.
- Reference period: Identify the years of data and the climatological baseline used to calculate departures from normal.
- Map type: A historical composite summarizes past events; a forecast estimates what may happen in a future season. Do not read one as the other.
- Geographic scope: A global composite, a regional outlook and a map based on island rain gauges do not offer the same coverage or level of detail.
Historical composites are not forecasts
NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL) describes a legacy global ENSO precipitation composite based on Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) observations from 1857–1994. Its precipitation anomalies are in millimeters per month, calculated relative to monthly means for 1951–1980. Those dates and units describe that specific historical product; they do not describe every rainfall map or a current operational forecast. NOAA PSL’s global ENSO precipitation composites provide the product context.
A historical composite combines observations from past events to show a recurring tendency. It does not say what a coming season will bring. By contrast, an outlook gives probabilities for future conditions and applies to its stated forecast period and issue date.
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Why a tendency is not a local guarantee
Even a strong El Niño does not ensure strong rainfall impacts everywhere. NOAA CPC cautions: “Stronger El Niño events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies).” A global pattern can help explain climate risk, but it cannot establish that El Niño caused a specific local rainfall event without evidence for that event.
For smaller-scale context, NOAA CPC also maintains rainfall monitoring material for western tropical Pacific islands and selected stations, including ENSO composites, station analyses, rainfall correlations and rainfall-percentile maps. These products have a different geographic scope from a global composite. NOAA CPC’s western Pacific rainfall monitoring offers that regional view.
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Forecasts need an issue date
Climate outlooks change as new observations arrive. NOAA CPC’s diagnostic issued 10 September 2026 described a strengthening El Niño and gave a greater-than-90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27. It also gave a 75% chance of a historic event during October–December 2026, defined in that discussion as a three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.5°C or more. These were probabilities in that dated diagnostic—not statements that a rainfall outcome was certain. Check the latest CPC discussion before relying on a current-season outlook. NOAA CPC’s ENSO diagnostic discussions are updated as conditions evolve.
NOAA’s RONI outlook depicts forecast ranges for overlapping three-month seasons, with stated 50%, 70% and 90% probability ranges. The product updates monthly alongside the ENSO diagnostic discussion. A probability range describes forecast confidence, not a guaranteed rainfall result for an individual location.
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A practical caption checklist
When a map’s metadata is available, a caption should identify its season, ENSO phase or event, reference baseline, dataset and period, and whether it is a historical composite or a forecast. For example: “Rainfall anomaly during [season] for [ENSO phase/event], relative to [baseline], using [dataset and period]; this map shows a historical composite / forecast probability, not a guaranteed local outcome.” Fill in each item from the map itself rather than assuming it from the title or colors.
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