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Build a rolling cash flow forecast from your reconciled bank balance, then map expected receipts and payments into the periods when cash should actually clear. Calculate the balance forward, watch for the lowest projected point, and update the forecast on a regular schedule: replace estimates with actuals, revise dates when evidence changes, and add a new period at the end.
What a rolling cash flow forecast shows
A cash flow forecast estimates when money will enter and leave the business, and how those movements affect available cash over time. A rolling forecast stays current: after a period closes, you record what actually happened, remove that completed period from the forward view, and add a new one at the far end. The result is a moving planning window rather than a forecast that ends on a fixed date.
This is an operational view of liquidity, not a profit forecast. A sale may be recorded before a customer pays, and an expense may be recorded before the business pays it. For a direct-method cash forecast, include transactions when they are expected to move money into or out of the bank. The Tauro Accounting guide describes the rolling weekly approach; the British Business Bank’s guide also distinguishes cash timing from accounting profit.
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Choose periods and a forward horizon that fit the decision you need to make. Daily or weekly periods can help manage near-term obligations; longer periods can support broader planning. New Zealand’s Business.govt.nz guidance recommends matching the forecast view to the purpose, while the British Business Bank advises looking at least as far ahead as the business’s cash-flow cycle.
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A 13-week weekly forecast is one practical short-term pattern, not a universal standard. Tauro Accounting demonstrates 13 weekly periods and extending the forecast by one week after each weekly close. Use a different horizon if your business’s cash cycle, payment schedule, or planning needs call for it. Avoid pretending that distant estimates are precise when the underlying information is weak.
Set up the forecast
- Reconcile the opening cash balance. Check the bank accounts included in the forecast and record the balance as of a specific date. Resolve outstanding or duplicated transactions so the starting figure reflects available cash.
- Create the periods. Set up columns for each chosen day, week, month, or other interval across the selected horizon. Label each with its dates.
- Add the core rows. Include opening cash, receipts, payments, net cash movement, and closing cash. Keep important receipt and payment categories visible rather than combining them into one net figure.
- Enter expected receipts and payments. Use invoices, billing schedules, supplier bills, payroll dates, loan schedules, and other records to estimate when funds will actually clear.
- Calculate balances. For each period, subtract total payments from total receipts to find net movement. Add that movement to opening cash to get closing cash. Carry closing cash into the next period as its opening balance.
- Mark the cash trough. Highlight the lowest projected closing balance and the period in which it occurs. If relevant, also show a minimum-cash threshold and any financing assumption separately.
The core formulas are:
- Net cash movement = total receipts − total payments
- Closing cash = opening cash + net cash movement
- Next period’s opening cash = prior period’s closing cash
Estimate receipts using likely collection dates
Base incoming cash on evidence such as outstanding invoices, customer payment history, recurring billing, and documented non-sales receipts. Enter a receipt in the period it is reasonably expected to clear the bank—not automatically on the sale date or invoice due date. A due date is useful evidence, but actual collection timing may differ.
Keep speculative sales and uncommitted financing separate from supported receipts. If you use pipeline assumptions, label them clearly and consider showing a separate scenario instead of relying on uncertain money to cover known obligations. The Australian Government’s small-business cash-in guidance discusses the kinds of information that can inform expected inflows.
Estimate payments using the actual payment calendar
Use the expected payment date, not merely the date an expense is recorded. Build payment rows from supplier bills and payment practices, payroll schedules, rent, debt service, fees, taxes, and known irregular costs such as insurance renewals or bonuses. Use payables records, payroll calendars, loan schedules, and compliance dates as applicable.
Tax and payroll obligations vary by jurisdiction. For example, Australia’s small-business resources refer to tax and super commitments; those are Australian examples, not universal categories or deadlines. The Australian Government’s guide to gathering cash-flow data explains relevant records in that context. Adapt the forecast to the rules that apply where your business operates.
Do not hide timing by netting receipts against payments. A customer payment expected late in a period may arrive after payroll, rent, or a tax payment is due. Keep the periods short enough and the rows distinct enough to expose that gap.
Find and interpret the cash trough
Review every period’s projected closing balance, not just the last one. The lowest point is the cash trough: it identifies when liquidity may be tightest and gives you a date or period to investigate. A forecast that ends with a healthy balance can still reveal a shortfall earlier in the horizon.
Use the trough to identify the assumptions or decisions that matter. Check whether a large receipt is timed realistically, whether a payment can be scheduled differently, or whether a known cash need requires action. Show any assumed borrowing or minimum-cash target explicitly; do not let an unconfirmed financing plan appear as ordinary cash on hand.
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Update the forecast on a recurring schedule
Set a review rhythm that matches the forecast cadence and the pace of change in the business. At each review, close the completed period with actual figures, compare them with the estimates, and update the remaining periods using current evidence.
- Replace the completed period’s estimates with actual receipts and payments.
- Review material differences: identify whether amounts, timing, or assumptions were wrong, and record the reason where it will help future estimates.
- Move forecast dates when new evidence changes expected collection or payment timing.
- Revise upcoming assumptions using current invoices, schedules, customer information, and other relevant records.
- Add a new period at the end so the forward horizon continues to roll.
A forecast remains useful because it is maintained, not because the initial spreadsheet is elaborate. Keep the detail to a level the people responsible can refresh reliably.
Use scenarios when one estimate is not enough
When income or payment timing is uncertain, build clearly labeled scenarios rather than hiding uncertainty in a single number. Business.govt.nz suggests pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic income estimates. You can compare how each assumption changes the trough and its timing, while keeping committed receipts and obligations distinct from uncertain possibilities.
Choose a spreadsheet or accounting software
A spreadsheet is a straightforward option for a forecast whose assumptions and formulas the team wants to inspect directly. Accounting software may also be used; Business.govt.nz describes both formats. The sources do not establish product-specific features or prices, so assess available tools against your own workflow.
Quick Recap
- Can it represent the intervals and horizon your cash cycle requires?
- Can you reliably enter or import the records used to support estimates?
- Are formulas and assumptions transparent enough to review?
- Is it practical to replace estimates with actuals and extend the horizon?
- Can you show alternative scenarios if assumptions are uncertain?
- Is the effort and cost of maintaining it sustainable for your team?
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