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Through September 30, 2026, the cited market tables show a year of sharply uneven returns: commodities and emerging-market stocks led Madison Partners’ selected proxies, while gold and several bond proxies declined. US stocks were positive, but even the S&P 500’s reported return differs between sources. There is no single, fully comparable seven-class leaderboard in the available figures, so the results below identify each benchmark, source and cutoff rather than treating every number as directly interchangeable.
What counts as a 2026 return in this comparison?
All year-to-date figures below are reported through September 30, 2026. The sources use different indices and fund proxies, and they do not provide a common calculation methodology for every asset class. CIBC labels its stock and bond chart figures as total returns; Madison Partners’ table reports results for a mix of indices and exchange-traded funds. Do not read the figures as returns on a single investable portfolio or as a universal return for an entire asset class.
Currency, income reinvestment, fees and the exact proxy can change a comparison. Madison Partners identifies its international bond proxy as currency hedged; the figures here should not be generalized to unhedged international bonds. For the other Madison Partners proxies, the cited table does not establish a consistent fee or income-reinvestment convention across all entries.
Which asset classes led or lagged in the cited figures?
Madison Partners’ September 2026 table offers the broadest cross-asset view in the supplied sources. Its strongest listed results were the Bloomberg Commodity proxy and MSCI Emerging Markets; its weakest listed results included intermediate Treasuries, broad US bonds and gold. The table below preserves the source’s proxy labels and September 30 cutoff.
#1 Best Overall
| Exposure and proxy | 2026 YTD through September 30 | Source-specific note |
|---|---|---|
| Commodities — Bloomberg Commodity (BCI) | +32.46% | Madison Partners, 2026; diversified commodity benchmark proxy. |
| International emerging stocks — MSCI Emerging Markets | +23.7% | Madison Partners, 2026. |
| US small-cap stocks — Russell 2000 | +13.7% | Madison Partners, 2026. |
| International developed stocks — MSCI EAFE | +10.8% | Madison Partners, 2026. |
| US real estate — VNQ / FTSE Nareit | +7.9% | Madison Partners, 2026; listed REIT proxy. |
| High-yield bonds — ICE BofA / Bloomberg US High Yield | +0.0% | Madison Partners, 2026. |
| Gold — SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) | -3.9% | Madison Partners, 2026; fund proxy, not spot gold. |
| International bonds — Vanguard Total International Bond (BNDX) | -1.17% | Madison Partners, 2026; currency hedged. |
| US aggregate bonds — Bloomberg US Aggregate | -2.9% | Madison Partners, 2026. |
| US Treasuries — iShares 7–10 Year Treasury (IEF) | -4.63% | Madison Partners, 2026; intermediate Treasury fund proxy. |
Within this table, the commodity result is especially striking beside gold’s decline. Those are different exposures: BCI tracks a diversified commodity benchmark, while GLD is a gold fund proxy. One cannot be used as a stand-in for the other, and neither figure establishes what every commodity or gold investor earned.
How did US stocks and bonds perform?
CIBC Private Wealth US’s September 30 chart reports positive YTD total returns for both US stock benchmarks it shows, and negative returns for the taxable investment-grade and municipal bond benchmarks. These are separate source-specific results from the Madison Partners table.
Rank #2
| Benchmark | 2026 YTD through September 30 | Source and return basis |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 — US large-cap stocks | +14.1% | CIBC Private Wealth US, 2026; chart labels returns total return. |
| Russell 2000 — US small-cap stocks | +15.5% | CIBC Private Wealth US, 2026; chart labels returns total return. |
| Bloomberg Aggregate Bond — taxable investment-grade bonds | -2.8% | CIBC Private Wealth US, 2026. |
| Bloomberg Intermediate Municipal — municipal bonds | -3.6% | CIBC Private Wealth US, 2026. |
Why do the S&P 500 figures differ?
Madison Partners reports +12.8% for the S&P 500 through September 30, while CIBC Private Wealth US reports +14.1% for the same named benchmark and cutoff. The sources do not provide enough detail here to reconcile the difference, so neither figure should be silently substituted for the other. The same pattern appears for the Russell 2000: Madison Partners reports +13.7%, compared with CIBC’s +15.5% total-return chart figure.
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What market forces help explain the dispersion?
LSEG / FTSE Russell’s October 7, 2026 overview describes the broad tension: “Resilient earnings supported equities through renewed energy disruption, while inflation, fiscal concerns and tighter monetary policy pushed yields to cycle highs.” It also highlights energy as the leading commodity area, US large caps outperforming, Japan leading in US-dollar terms, and government yields reaching new highs. These observations describe the market backdrop, not a complete explanation of each return in the tables.
Rank #3
CIBC’s October 1 commentary attributes rising yields to inflation and deficit concerns and reports that the 10-year Treasury yield rose about 0.75 percentage point in Q3, reaching levels it says had not been seen in nearly 20 years. CIBC links the higher yields to negative fixed-income returns during the quarter. The yield figure and causal account are CIBC’s reported analysis.
Madison Partners says September’s rate rise weighed on broad investment-grade bonds and intermediate Treasuries; in its September snapshot, small caps and real estate also fell, while commodities edged higher as oil rose and gold declined as real yields increased. A difficult September can coexist with positive year-to-date returns, as the table’s listed small-cap and REIT proxies illustrate.
Quick Recap
Best Value
Rank #4
How should you use a performance table?
- Check the end date. These figures stop at September 30, not the October dates of the market commentary. A later cutoff could produce different results.
- Identify the actual exposure. An index, an ETF and a spot price are not interchangeable. Here, gold is represented by GLD, real estate by VNQ / FTSE Nareit, and intermediate Treasuries by IEF.
- Check return conventions. CIBC explicitly labels its chart returns total return. The supplied Madison Partners table does not establish one uniform convention for every proxy.
- Check currency and hedging. International returns can change materially with currency movements. Madison Partners identifies BNDX as currency hedged, but the other rows should not be assumed to share that treatment.
- Separate past performance from a decision. A strong YTD result does not by itself show that an exposure is suitable, or that its gains will continue. S&P Dow Jones Indices cautions that past performance is not an indication or guarantee of future results; it also notes that pre-launch index history may be hypothetical and back-tested, with actual returns potentially differing significantly and being lower.
Sources and methodology
- Madison Partners, “September 2026 Market Update” — cross-asset table through September 30, 2026, and the firm’s account of September market moves.
- CIBC Private Wealth US, “Third-quarter market returns: stocks outperform bonds” — total-return chart through September 30, 2026, and commentary on Q3 yields and fixed income.
- LSEG / FTSE Russell, “Performance Insights – October 2026” — October 7 market overview and broad performance context.
- S&P Dow Jones Indices, “S&P Real Assets – Indices” — index descriptions and performance caveats.
- World Gold Council, “Gold Price Performance & Data” — live gold data hub; spot data updated October 8 and returns data October 2, 2026. The Madison Partners GLD figure above remains a separate fund-proxy result.
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