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U.S. refiners saw unusually strong margins in 2026 as conflict and shipping disruptions tightened global supplies of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. The gains were not uniform, and a stronger refining margin is not the same as company-wide profit: crude costs, product mix, operating expenses and one-time accounting items all affect the final result.
Why did U.S. refiners benefit from global disruptions?
Refiners buy crude oil, process it and sell products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. When conflict or shipping problems reduce the supply of refined products more sharply than the crude available to a particular refinery, product prices can rise relative to crude costs. That widens the potential margin between input and output.
That mechanism was visible in the second quarter of 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said petroleum flows through the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted, prompting international buyers to seek alternative sources. Those buyers helped lift U.S. refinery margins, production and exports. U.S. refiners processed more crude in a second quarter than they had since 2019, despite refining capacity being 4% higher. EIA’s July 15, 2026 review reported that the average gasoline crack spread was 60% higher year over year, while distillate and jet fuel crack spreads more than doubled.
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What a crack spread says—and what it doesn’t
A crack spread is an indicator of the price difference between crude oil and selected refined products. It helps show whether market conditions may be favorable for refining, but it does not include all of a refinery’s costs and is not an audited measure of a company’s net profit.
For its New York Harbor product crack spreads, EIA compares spot prices for RBOB gasoline, ultra-low sulfur diesel and jet fuel with Dated Brent crude. Its 3-2-1 crack spread estimates the value of two gallons of gasoline and one gallon of diesel against the cost of three gallons of crude, then divides the difference by three. These measures describe market economics, not the precise results of every refinery.
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Nor does an increase in crude prices automatically help refiners. Their outcome depends on how the price and availability of the crude they buy compare with the products they can sell. Crude quality and regional price differences, product yields, throughput, outages and costs can all change the result.
How much fuel did U.S. refiners export?
Strong overseas demand gave U.S. refiners an outlet for more product. In the second quarter of 2026, average U.S. distillate exports reached 1.56 million barrels per day, 30% above the five-year average. Average jet fuel exports were 356,000 barrels per day, more than double that average, while U.S. jet fuel production was 24% above its five-year average. These are EIA figures for that quarter, not permanent export levels. EIA’s quarterly account connects the increase to disrupted international supplies and buyers seeking alternatives.
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Exports can support refinery sales and margins, but they also matter for domestic availability. In the third quarter, U.S. distillate inventories remained below their five-year average, even as U.S. refiners ran hard. Export volumes alone do not establish why a particular domestic price changed; production, imports, demand and stock levels also matter.
Do strong margins mean every refiner made a windfall?
No. A strong market-wide crack spread is not a company earnings report, and refiners have different facilities, crude access, product mixes, utilization rates and costs. Reported earnings may also include non-recurring items or businesses beyond refining.
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Chevron: a reported company example
The Associated Press reported that Chevron’s quarterly refinery profit was six times as large in 2026, even though it processed less crude and sold fewer products; the AP attributed the increase to higher refined-product prices. That is a specific reported result, not an industry-wide multiplier. The AP report, published July 30, 2026, also quoted University of Tennessee business economics professor Timothy Fitzgerald saying that globally, not all refineries had been able to obtain the crude they needed to meet demand since the conflict began.
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PBF Energy: operating gains alongside special items
PBF Energy’s filing described improved first-half 2026 refining margins, citing favorable crack spreads and crude differentials, higher throughput and more barrels sold. It also noted higher Renewable Fuel Standard compliance costs. The filing included a $313.0 million lower-of-cost-or-market inventory adjustment and a $356.5 million insurance recovery gain, as well as fire-related expenses and other matters. Those accounting and exceptional items should not be treated as recurring refining performance or confused with operating margin, net income or cash generation. PBF’s second-quarter 2026 SEC filing provides the company’s own detail.
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For a fair comparison between refiners or periods, separate segment-level refining results from consolidated net income, margin per barrel from throughput, and routine operations from inventory, insurance, outage or fire items. A complete peer ranking would require comparable company disclosures on those measures; the figures cited here do not establish one.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How long could the margins stay high?
There is no guarantee they will. Margins can change if conflict or shipping routes ease, disrupted refineries restart, crude or product exports shift, demand weakens, inventories rebuild or operating and compliance costs rise. A refinery’s access to crude and its regional price differentials can also change independently of the global supply picture.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected in September 2026 that global oil supply would average 100.7 million barrels per day for the year, down 5.7 million barrels per day from 2025, and said a full recovery in Middle East producer supply had been deferred until 2027. That was a dated forecast, not a guaranteed outcome. The IEA’s September 2026 Oil Market Report set out that projection.
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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsEarlier, EIA’s August outlook expected lower Russian product exports, resumed conflict around the Strait of Hormuz that limited flows from Saudi and Kuwaiti refineries, and reduced crude runs in China to support U.S. refiner margins through year end. That expectation was also a forecast made at a particular time, not a promise. EIA’s August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook explains its assumptions.
Quick Recap
What the numbers mean for readers
- Disruptions that restrict refined-product supply can lift product prices relative to crude and improve potential refining margins.
- High crack spreads, strong utilization and rising exports are evidence of a favorable market environment, not proof that every refiner earned the same profit.
- Company results need to be read alongside throughput, product mix, crude differentials, compliance costs and one-time items.
- Conflict, shipping, supply recovery, inventories and demand can all shift the margin picture quickly.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
