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The smartphone market’s recent “explosions” are sharp swings in shipments, competition and component costs—not literal incidents. After modest global shipment growth in 2025, the latest IDC outlook projects a steep contraction in 2026 as memory and other component pressures intensify. The downturn is uneven: IDC’s final second-quarter results show some major vendors growing while others fell sharply.
What changed in the smartphone market?
The market moved from modest growth to a much weaker outlook in a short time. But the figures come from different research firms and periods, so they should be read as separate estimates—not combined into one definitive shipment count.
| Publisher and publication date | 2025 result |
|---|---|
| Counterpoint Research, January 12, 2026 | Preliminary estimate: shipments grew 2% year over year. |
| Omdia, January 29, 2026 | Shipments totaled 1.25 billion, up 2% year over year. |
The estimates agree on modest growth, but their totals should not be treated as a reconciled census. Research firms use their own trackers and methodologies, and the reported figures are shipment estimates rather than a direct count of phones purchased by consumers.
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Yes, according to the latest IDC figures in the cited material—but the annual decline is still a forecast, not a final result. IDC’s September 8, 2026-updated Smartphone Market Insights reports final second-quarter shipments of 276.3 million units, down 7.4% year over year. For the full year, that page forecasts shipments will fall 16.7% to just over one billion units.
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The outlook worsened between IDC’s May and September publications. The earlier May 26 forecast projected a 13.9% full-year decline; the later September-updated outlook projects a 16.7% decline. These are successive forecasts from the same firm, not two observed annual outcomes.
| IDC publication or update | Forecast |
|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | 13.9% full-year shipment decline. |
| Updated September 8, 2026 | 16.7% full-year shipment decline, to just over one billion units. |
Why are shipments and forecasts under pressure?
Research firms point to memory shortages and higher component costs as important pressures on the market. IDC’s May analysis described the memory shortage as a dominant force behind its then-forecast decline, while Counterpoint and Omdia also identified memory headwinds in their 2025 assessments and 2026 outlooks. These are analysts’ explanations and forecast drivers; they do not establish a single cause for every company’s or region’s results.
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Higher component costs can make it harder for phone makers to maintain prices or margins, especially in lower-priced segments where buyers are more sensitive to price changes. That is a plausible market consequence, not proof that every phone has become more expensive or that every manufacturer has responded in the same way.
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Which phone companies are holding up—and which are losing ground?
IDC’s final second-quarter 2026 vendor table shows sharply different year-over-year results among the listed companies. Share is each vendor’s portion of shipments in that quarter; growth compares that vendor’s shipments with the same quarter a year earlier.
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| Vendor | Worldwide shipment share | Year-over-year shipment growth |
|---|---|---|
| Samsung | 22.7% | 8.1% |
| Apple | 20.2% | 14.9% |
| Xiaomi | 11.3% | -26.4% |
| OPPO | 10.5% | -17.1% |
| vivo | 7.7% | -19.6% |
The quarter’s leaders by share were Samsung and Apple, while Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo recorded declines in the same IDC table. This does not mean every vendor’s performance over the full year will match its second-quarter result.
For a different period and tracker, Counterpoint Research’s preliminary estimate for full-year 2025 identified Apple as the annual leader, with 20% global share and 10% shipment growth. That annual estimate is not directly interchangeable with IDC’s Q2 2026 table.
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Are all regions and phone types affected equally?
No. IDC’s May 2026 forecast expected steeper shipment declines in some regions than others. These regional figures belong to that May forecast and should not be mistaken for September’s updated global outlook or for final regional results.
| Region | Forecast change |
|---|---|
| Middle East and Africa (MEA) | -23% |
| Central and Eastern Europe | -19% |
| Asia/Pacific excluding Japan and China (APeJC) | -14% |
| China | -13% |
| North America | -6.3% |
Foldables were an exception in IDC’s outlook: the September-updated page describes 12.6% growth for 2026, a forecast rather than a final result. IDC’s May forecast had projected 20% growth, so the newer figure indicates a less optimistic outlook for that segment too.
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What should phone buyers take from the market shift?
Shipment forecasts describe the market, not the best phone for an individual buyer. They also cannot tell you whether a particular model will be discounted, remain in stock or receive support for a specific length of time. For a purchase decision, compare the phone’s current local price and warranty, software-update commitment, repair options and total cost against your needs rather than treating the market outlook as a buying signal.
If you are shopping in a budget tier, pay particular attention to the features and support included at the actual price. Component-cost pressure may weigh more heavily on lower-cost devices, but the cited market data does not establish that every budget phone will rise in price or lose features.
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