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The 1876–78 global famine unfolded as drought and crop failures struck several regions, alongside a strong El Niño that developed in 1877. But drought in some of the hardest-hit places began before El Niño emerged or persisted after it waned. El Niño was part of the climate story—not a single explanation for the famine or its deaths. Today, seasonal forecasts can give governments months to prepare, but preventing food crises depends on turning those forecasts into timely, locally appropriate action.
How many people died in the 1876–78 famine?
A 2018 study in the Journal of Climate, titled Climate and the Global Famine of 1876–78, reports historical estimates of famine-related deaths ranging from 12.2 million to 29.3 million in India, 19.5 million to 30 million in China, and about 2 million in Brazil. These are estimates drawn from historical documentation, not precise counts. The evidence cited here does not establish one authoritative, globally agreed death toll, so the regional ranges should not be added together and presented as a definitive total.
The crisis was global in scale: India, China, Brazil and other regions experienced famine during the period. Its chronology also varied from place to place, making it misleading to describe it as a single drought with one cause and one uniform timeline.
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No single climate pattern explains the famine. El Niño influences rainfall and temperature, but its effects differ by region and event. The 2018 study finds that the strong El Niño developed in 1877 and waned in 1878, while drought in India, northeastern Brazil and China began before El Niño developed or continued beyond it. East Asia experienced the most widespread and persistent droughts over the three-year period.
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A useful distinction is between a climate hazard and a famine. Drought can damage harvests, but crop losses become hunger and mortality through their interaction with people’s vulnerability and the conditions of food production and access. The historical estimates do not, on their own, show how much of the death toll resulted from any one policy or decision-maker; claims assigning responsibility require evidence beyond the climate chronology.
Nor does every El Niño produce the same pattern of drought or heat. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says impacts vary with an event’s strength, duration and timing, as well as location and interactions with other climate patterns, including the Indian Ocean Dipole.
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Can El Niño be predicted months ahead?
Seasonal forecasts can identify climate patterns before their full effects unfold. WMO says current seasonal forecast models can predict climate patterns one to six months ahead; the World Health Organization (WHO) likewise says El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can be predicted with some reliability several months in advance. That is a planning window, not a guarantee of the weather in a particular place: local outcomes remain uncertain, and a forecast does not itself deliver help.
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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsIn its update last updated 3 September 2026, WMO said there was a nearly 100% likelihood that El Niño would persist through September–November 2026 and December 2026–February 2027, with forecasts indicating further strengthening and a very strong event before a late-year peak. That is a dated forecast, not a statement of observed conditions or a timeless outlook. WMO does not use “Super El Niño” as a classification; its own terms include “strong” and “very strong.”
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What does the 2026–27 food-security projection mean?
On 5 August 2026, the World Food Programme (WFP) said its initial analysis projected that at least 49 million additional people could face acute food insecurity by the end of 2027 in 45 analyzed countries. In those countries, the projected number could rise from about 225 million to 274 million, roughly 22%. The analysis covered places with available food-security data and substantial expected El Niño influence; it used historical evidence, baseline food insecurity, risk factors and expert judgment.
This is a dated agency projection of acute food insecurity—IPC Phase 3 or equivalent and above—not an observed outcome, a global census, a forecast of famine deaths or a prediction that the 1876–78 famine will repeat. WFP Acting Executive Director Carl Skau said on 5 August 2026: “El Niño is a massive threat to the food security of millions who are already vulnerable,” and, “The sooner we help families to prepare for these climate shocks, the greater our ability to save lives and protect livelihoods.”
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How can early warning reduce the risk of famine?
Early warning can help authorities act before a failed harvest or other climate shock strips households of food and the means to recover. The useful chain runs from seasonal forecasts to regional outlooks and national meteorological services, then to decisions by governments and climate-sensitive sectors. For a warning to matter, someone must have the authority, funding, supplies and delivery capacity to act on it.
Identify where risk is converging
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) describes combining satellite monitoring of agricultural drought, seasonal precipitation forecasts and food-insecurity data. The aim is to locate places where past agricultural drought patterns overlap with unfavorable forecasts and existing food insecurity. That helps direct limited preparation toward communities facing several risks at once, rather than treating an El Niño alert as a uniform warning for every place.
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Protect the next harvest and livestock
FAO’s listed anticipatory measures include drought- and heat-tolerant seeds and breeds, animal feed, improved water access, animal-health support, pest management and planting guidance. Crop-protection tools can also help protect production and produce from floods and cyclones. These measures matter beyond the immediate season: losses can deplete seed, soil, livestock and other assets, leaving households less able to plant or recover in the following one.
Protect health, water and household access to food
WHO notes that ENSO can affect food security, air and water quality, disease transmission, ecosystems and health infrastructure. Preparing for a climate shock therefore extends beyond agriculture to measures such as protecting water systems and preparing health services for local risks.
WFP describes anticipatory action that can provide cash, food support and warning messages before a crisis unfolds. It also highlights stronger water systems and pre-arranged financing—such as disaster-risk insurance, credit and digital payments—to help make action possible in time. The appropriate mix depends on local exposure, existing food insecurity and what households need to preserve their livelihoods.
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In its 5 August 2026 update, WFP reported that since May it had triggered anticipatory action plans in Chad, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mauritania, South Sudan and Uganda. It said those actions had provided more than US$14 million in early support to around 500,000 people. The same update said WFP had active anticipatory plans in more than 50 countries; that broader footprint is distinct from the six countries where it reported triggered actions and the associated support figures.
Those figures describe reported activity as of the release date, not a measure of how much future hunger was prevented. Forecast-based action creates an opportunity to reduce harm; outcomes still depend on whether warnings are sufficiently useful, actions fit local conditions, and support reaches people before losses compound.
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