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The 38% decline refers to Sandisk’s net revenue in fiscal 2023 compared with fiscal 2022—not a drop in unit shipments or a single-quarter result. Sandisk’s filing says substantially all of the decline came from a 39% fall in average selling price per gigabyte. The next test is its scheduled fiscal first-quarter 2027 report on October 29, 2026; as of October 12, results were not yet public.
What the 38% decline measures
Sandisk’s 2025 filing reports that net revenue fell 38% in fiscal 2023 compared with fiscal 2022. The respective fiscal years ended June 30, 2023, and July 1, 2022. The company said substantially all of the decline was driven by a 39% reduction in average selling price (ASP) per gigabyte. Sandisk’s 2025 S-1/A attributes price pressure to a supply-demand imbalance, macroeconomic pressures, and product mix.
Revenue combines price and the amount of storage shipped. The filing’s company-wide explanation therefore matters: this was primarily a price-led revenue contraction, not evidence that shipments fell by 38%. Individual end markets had different combinations of price and volume changes.
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These historical figures describe Sandisk’s flash business in its filed historical presentation. They predate the company’s February 2025 separation from Western Digital and should not be read as results from an already independent public company.
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Why revenue fell differently across end markets
The filing breaks out three end markets and shows that the declines were not uniform:
| End market | FY2023 revenue change | Price and shipment detail reported |
|---|---|---|
| Cloud | Down 60% | Exabyte shipments fell 28%; ASP per gigabyte fell 45%. |
| Client | Down 40% | ASP per gigabyte fell 42%; the cited filing summary does not give a comparable shipment change. |
| Consumer | Down 21% | ASP per gigabyte fell approximately 30%, partly offset by 14% more exabytes sold. |
Cloud was the steepest of these declines, while consumer revenue had a partial volume offset. These segment movements help explain the company’s results, but they should not be treated as identical contributions to the overall 38% decline.
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How the business looked before the October report
Sandisk’s most recently reported results before October 29 showed a sharp reversal from FY2023. In its August 5, 2026 release, the company reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $20.25 billion, up 175% year over year. Fiscal Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, up 51% sequentially. Sandisk said roughly one-third of that sequential increase came from higher volume and two-thirds from higher pricing. Read the FY2026 results release.
That recovery is a contrast with FY2023’s price-led contraction, not proof that NAND flash has stopped being cyclical. Demand, pricing, and product mix can change; a strong recent period does not establish what the next one will bring.
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End markets also diverged in fiscal Q3 2026, the earlier quarter for which the cited company materials provide a comparable breakdown: datacenter revenue was $1.467 billion, up 233% sequentially; edge revenue was $3.663 billion, up 118%; and consumer revenue was $820 million, down 10%. Sandisk’s Q3 FY2026 release offers a useful example of why total revenue alone may obscure different demand patterns.
When Sandisk reports on October 29
Sandisk scheduled its fiscal first-quarter 2027 earnings call for October 29, 2026, at 1:30 p.m. Pacific time / 4:30 p.m. Eastern time. The schedule was published before the event; the results and management commentary were still unknown as of October 12, 2026. Check the company’s report announcement for the official event details.
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- Transfer a full-length movie in less than 30 seconds(2) [(2) Based on 1.2GB MPEG-4 video transfer with USB 3.0 host device. Results may vary based on host device, file attributes and other factors]
- Transfer to drive up to 15 times faster than standard USB 2.0 drives(1)
- Sleek, durable metal casing
- Easy-to-use password protection for your private files(3) [(3)Password protection uses 128-bit AES encryption and is supported by Windows 7, Windows 8, Windows 10, and Mac OS X v10.9 plus; Software download required for Mac, visit the SanDisk SecureAccess support page]
The release will be more informative if read through several connected measures rather than headline revenue alone:
- Price versus bits: Check whether ASP or pricing and shipped bit volume are rising or falling together. FY2023 shows how lower prices can drive revenue down even when some markets have different shipment trends.
- End-market mix: Compare datacenter, edge, and consumer contributions where the release provides them. Their Q3 FY2026 trajectories were notably different.
- Time-frame comparisons: Separate sequential growth from year-over-year growth; each compares against a different baseline.
- Outlook versus prior guidance: Evaluate management’s new outlook against the company’s latest reported guidance, if the release provides a comparable measure.
- Committed versus exposed demand: Look for updates on customer agreements, bit coverage, and the share of business still exposed to more traditional market pricing.
These are analytical comparison points, not a reported company scorecard. The cited materials do not establish an analyst-consensus figure, so a consensus beat-or-miss judgment should not be assumed.
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- Secure file encryption and password protection(2)
Can longer-term customer agreements soften memory-cycle swings?
At its August 13, 2026 Investor Day, Sandisk said it had signed New Business Model agreements with eight customers. The company said those agreements represented approximately 50% of FY2027 bits and approximately two-thirds of FY2028 bits. It described the contracts as using committed volumes, contractual frameworks with minimum financial guarantees, and structured pricing mechanisms. Sandisk’s stated aim is to improve planning and revenue visibility while reducing exposure to traditional industry volatility. See the Investor Day announcement.
Those terms could make some demand and revenue more predictable, but they are not evidence that NAND has become non-cyclical. Investors still need to see how agreements perform in practice, how much revenue they cover, and how pricing and demand evolve outside the committed business.
How to interpret Sandisk’s growth targets
Sandisk’s Investor Day set company targets for FY2028 through FY2030, including mid-to-high-teen revenue growth and approximately 80% non-GAAP gross margins. These are forward-looking targets, not realized results or independent forecasts. Their delivery depends on assumptions and risks, so they should be evaluated against subsequent reported performance.
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