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Investors are looking beyond card-based commerce because more payments can now move through bank-transfer networks, wallets, open-banking connections and software services—not just familiar card checkout. That shift may change who controls transaction routing, customer data and merchant relationships. It is a diversification of payment models, not evidence that cards are about to disappear or that any particular company is a good investment.
Why payments are attracting attention beyond the card checkout
The investment case starts with a large market whose growth is slowing even as its infrastructure changes. McKinsey’s 2026 Global Payments Report estimates that payments generated about $2.6 trillion in revenue from 3.8 trillion transactions and $2.1 quadrillion in annual value flows. It reports that revenue growth slowed from 11% annually through 2024 to 3% in 2025, and projects average annual growth of 4% over the next five years, below the prior decade’s 7% average.
Those estimates describe the opportunity’s scale, not the returns available to any one provider. The same report points to card-fee pressure and growing technology costs. McKinsey’s 2025 report separately estimated $2.5 trillion in revenue, $2.0 quadrillion in annual value flows and 3.6 trillion transactions. These are figures from different annual reports and should not be treated as a like-for-like measure of growth: their scope and methodology are not established as directly comparable.
For investors, the central question is therefore not simply which payment method is gaining use. It is which companies can earn revenue from the transaction, keep operating costs under control and retain a role as transactions move between payment rails or become less visible to shoppers.
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Which payment models are widening the market?
“Beyond cards” covers several distinct systems and services. Some replace the card rail for a particular transaction; others provide a new interface or software layer while a card may still fund the payment. The distinctions matter because volume growth does not translate into the same revenue opportunity for every model.
| Model | What it does | Investor question | Important qualification |
|---|---|---|---|
| Account-to-account (A2A) and instant payments | Move funds directly between bank accounts; some domestic networks support near-real-time transfers. | Can providers earn enough per transaction, or from related services, to support the costs of access, routing and operations? | Lower-cost transfers can put pressure on card economics, but lower merchant cost does not by itself establish provider profitability. McKinsey describes India’s UPI and Brazil’s Pix as large-scale instant-payment examples. |
| Open-banking payment initiation | Uses permitted access to banking data or payment initiation to connect a payer’s account with a merchant or service. | Can a provider make consent, security, integration and payment completion reliable across different institutions and rules? | Availability and interoperability depend on national regulation and payment-system arrangements; this is not a single globally uniform rail. |
| Digital and local wallets | Give consumers a stored or linked payment interface that can simplify checkout. | Who owns the customer relationship and controls the interface—and which underlying rail actually funds the transaction? | McKinsey’s 2025 report estimated that wallets accounted for about 30% of global point-of-sale volume in 2024. That figure is wallet use, not a measure of cardless payments; some wallet transactions still use card rails. |
| Embedded finance and commerce software | Integrate payments or financial services into business software and workflows, alongside tools such as invoicing, reconciliation or working-capital services. | Can the provider earn recurring or adjacent-service revenue while solving a costly merchant problem? | Adding services can increase integration and support demands. McKinsey’s 2025 report describes software-centric providers investing in invoice automation, reconciliation and working-capital tools, particularly where business workflows remain manual. |
| Agent-mediated commerce | Allows software agents to help select or complete purchases, potentially without a conventional shopper-facing checkout. | If the interface becomes less visible, which provider supplies trusted credentials, permissions, routing and controls? | McKinsey, Visa and Global Payments discuss this as an emerging direction, not a settled adoption pattern or a proven winner. |
These categories can overlap. A wallet is an interface, not necessarily an independent payment rail; a merchant’s software can orchestrate different rails; and embedded finance may use established banking or card infrastructure behind the scenes. Calling all of them “card alternatives” can obscure where a provider actually sits in the flow of funds.
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Why the investment case differs by region
There is no single global path from cards to a replacement. McKinsey’s 2026 report describes different regional payment arenas shaped by local policy, infrastructure, regulation and consumer habits.
- North America, the UK and Western Europe: Cards remain resilient, supported by broad acceptance, rewards and buyer protections. New payment options compete in a market where established card habits and merchant acceptance already matter.
- India and Brazil: Instant-payment systems such as UPI and Pix show how domestic A2A networks can operate at scale. Their growth changes the competitive landscape, but a high volume of transfers is not, on its own, evidence of high revenue per payment.
- Parts of Africa: Mobile-money systems illustrate how markets can develop payment access through a different route where card networks have had less reach. That trajectory should not be generalized to every country or treated as a direct match for mature card markets.
For an investor, geography is not a footnote. A provider’s addressable opportunity depends on local acceptance, rules for data access and interoperability, and whether consumers and merchants have a practical reason to switch or add another method.
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Where payment providers may capture value
As the payment method becomes less visible, the valuable part of the transaction may shift toward the services that make it work. Providers can compete on routing, reconciliation, invoicing, fraud controls, embedded financial services and working capital—not only on the branded checkout or the underlying transfer.
McKinsey’s 2026 report advances a related thesis for software-agent commerce: if an agent can transact without a conventional checkout interaction, value could accrue to machine credentials, consent management, routing and automated policy controls. That is a view about where monetization might move, not evidence that these layers have already captured a defined share of industry profit.
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Global Payments’ December 2025 2026 Commerce and Payment Trends announcement highlights agentic shopping, expanded point-of-sale systems, embedded finance, instantaneous money movement, stablecoins for cross-border transactions and self-service as trends to watch. These are a company’s outlook areas, not independent proof that each has reached broad adoption. Its CEO, Cameron Bready, described change as “steady innovation building upon itself.”
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AI creates two distinct theses for payment businesses: using automation to reduce operating work, and adapting to changes in how consumers deposit money, pay and shop. The first could improve efficiency; the second could unsettle revenue sources even if overall payment activity continues to grow.
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McKinsey’s 2026 report estimates that agentic AI could put about $75 billion in global payments revenue at risk by 2030 under its baseline adoption scenario, rising to $160 billion under its aggressive scenario. It attributes most of the baseline exposure to deposit net interest income and a smaller portion to consumer card revenue. These are modeled scenario estimates, not observed losses or a forecast that the amounts will necessarily be lost.
The same report estimates up to $110 billion in annual operational productivity opportunity from generative and agentic AI across four payment-provider functions. That, too, is an estimate rather than realized savings. A provider’s ability to capture it depends on implementation, costs and whether automation improves operations without creating offsetting risks.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to assess a company exposed to the shift
Payment adoption is only one part of an investment case. Compare providers on how they earn, where they operate and what it costs to deliver the service.
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- Revenue capture: Identify whether revenue comes from transaction fees, software, financial services or a combination. More transactions do not guarantee attractive economics if the yield per transaction is low.
- Geography and use case: Separate evidence of adoption in one country or payment use from claims about a global shift. Check whether the provider has access to the relevant local rails and merchants.
- Acceptance, trust and protections: Consider merchant reach, buyer safeguards, authentication and fraud handling alongside speed and checkout convenience. Card resilience in some markets is tied to these established advantages.
- Integration and operating costs: Assess the work needed to connect local payment systems, route transactions and reconcile funds. McKinsey’s 2026 report projects payments IT spending to grow faster than sector revenue through 2030, making cost discipline material.
- Regulation and interoperability: Payment rules and data-protection frameworks vary by country. A model that works in one market may not transfer easily to another.
- Adjacent services: Look for evidence that merchants use and pay for services such as reconciliation, invoicing, working-capital tools or fraud controls—not merely a list of features.
- Execution against scenarios: Treat projections for AI, agent-mediated shopping and other emerging models as scenarios. Look for actual adoption and economics rather than assuming a forecast describes current results.
Forecasts also need careful attribution. Mastercard’s 2025 material cited an external forecast that global e-commerce A2A payments were expected to grow at a 14% compound annual growth rate through 2027. That is a forecast cited by Mastercard, not a measured result or a guarantee of provider revenue.
Does looking beyond cards mean cards are going away?
No. The evidence points to coexistence and regional variation, not a verified global replacement of cards. Cards retain meaningful acceptance and customer-protection advantages in some markets, while instant transfers, wallets, open-banking payments and other models gain roles in particular countries and uses. The investment question is how revenue and control may be redistributed across that broader stack—not whether every card transaction will vanish.
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