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Earth’s magnetic poles move because the planet’s main magnetic field is generated by electrically conducting liquid metal flowing in the outer core. That flow changes, so the field measured at Earth’s surface changes too. Geophysicists call this long-term change geomagnetic secular variation. The North Magnetic Pole has followed an irregular path toward Siberia in recent decades. The movement is important for compass bearings and navigation models, but it does not by itself show that a magnetic reversal is about to happen.
Why Earth’s magnetic field changes
Earth’s main field is produced deep below the crust, in the liquid outer core. The core contains electrically conducting metal. Heat escaping from the deeper interior drives convection in that fluid, and moving conductive fluid generates magnetic fields. Because the flow is always changing, the field it creates is never perfectly fixed.
The field reaching the surface is not the field of a simple bar magnet. It has a complex, changing pattern with regional differences, and the pattern evolves as the core flow evolves. A location that represented a magnetic pole in one model epoch may no longer do so a few years later.
Secular variation is the technical name
Long-term change in the main field is called geomagnetic secular variation. USGS describes secular variation across timescales ranging from decades to millions of years. It differs from the shorter daily fluctuations caused by changing electrical currents in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. Secular variation can also differ from one part of Earth to another and can speed up or slow down.
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That combination explains why a pole’s track can bend, accelerate or become less regular instead of moving at a constant speed in a straight line. Scientists can measure the changing field and model it, but the supplied official explanations do not identify one single, fully resolved core-flow pattern as the sole cause of the North Magnetic Pole’s present trajectory.
“Magnetic pole” and “geomagnetic pole” are not identical
News reports often use “magnetic north pole” as if it were one unambiguous point. In practice, the reported position depends on the definition and the field model used.
| Term | What it means | Why its position can vary |
|---|---|---|
| Magnetic pole | A location where the measured magnetic field is vertically oriented. The loci are oval-shaped rather than perfect mathematical points, and they can show day-to-day variation. | The full field changes with time, and short-term disturbances can affect observations. |
| Geomagnetic pole | The pole of the best-fit geocentric dipole component of Earth’s field. NOAA NCEI computes it from the first three Gauss coefficients in a main-field model such as WMM or IGRF. | It is derived from a model and therefore depends on the model coefficients and epoch. |
Consequently, two credible sources can publish different coordinates without one necessarily being wrong: they may be reporting different pole definitions, different models or different dates.
Where are the poles? The 2025 modeled positions
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information lists the following locations from the World Magnetic Model (WMM) for 2025. These are modeled positions for that epoch, not permanent geographic coordinates.
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| Pole | 2025 WMM-based latitude | 2025 WMM-based longitude | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Magnetic Pole | 85.762°N | 139.298°E | Model location for 2025; it can change as the field and model are updated. |
| South Magnetic Pole | 63.851°S | 135.078°E | Model location for 2025; it is not a fixed counterpart permanently opposite the northern location. |
These coordinates should always be read with their model and date. Treating one pair of numbers as timeless obscures both the field’s motion and the uncertainty inherent in representing a complex field with a model.
How scientists represent and forecast the drift
The World Magnetic Model
The World Magnetic Model is a global mathematical representation of the main field used by many navigation systems. BGS documents WMM2025 as a spherical-harmonic model through degree 12. Its main-field epoch is 2025.0, and its secular-variation estimates cover 2025.0 through 2030.0.
The model is revised on a five-year cycle. A revision is necessary because field values, including the direction a compass points, gradually depart from an older model. A model is therefore a time-bounded estimate, not a permanent map of the poles.
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NOAA’s announcement of its 2025 annual report says that the observed pole locations and speeds were very close to the predictions made by WMM2025 and the higher-resolution WMMHR2025. Agreement of that kind indicates that the model is performing well over the interval being assessed; it does not make the coordinates valid indefinitely.
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“We know the Earth’s magnetic field is constantly changing,” said Stephen Volz, Ph.D., assistant NOAA administrator for NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service.
The quotation appeared in NOAA’s World Magnetic Model update release. It describes the continuing physical process, and the role title belongs to the context of that release rather than being a claim about a current position.
What is driving the North Magnetic Pole toward Siberia?
Measurements show an irregular north-pole drift toward Siberia over recent decades. The broad cause is established: changing motion of conducting fluid in the outer core changes the main field. The field’s surface pattern then changes, and the point identified as the magnetic pole moves.
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Why pole drift matters for navigation
A magnetic compass aligns with the local horizontal component of Earth’s magnetic field. The angle between magnetic north and true geographic north is called magnetic declination (or variation). Declination depends on both where you are and when the measurement is made. As secular variation changes the field, a bearing that was accurate years ago can differ from a current bearing at the same place.
What WMM updates do—and do not do
- They do: provide a current estimate of field direction and strength for navigation software, aviation and maritime systems, surveying and other applications that use magnetic bearings.
- They do not: mean that every compass suddenly becomes inaccurate on the model’s release date. The change is gradual, and the size of the correction depends on location and required precision.
- They do not: indicate that satellite positioning has suddenly failed. GPS determines position from satellite signals; magnetic models are relevant when a system uses a compass or converts between magnetic and true headings.
Using a compass responsibly
- Determine your location and the date of the map or bearing you are using.
- Obtain a current declination value from a recognized magnetic-field model or a topographic chart that states its epoch.
- Set the compass’s adjustable-declination correction if it has one, or apply the stated east/west correction to your bearing.
- Recheck the value when traveling a substantial distance, working near areas of strong local magnetic anomalies, or demanding survey-level accuracy.
An adjustable-declination compass is useful because it lets the instrument account for the local difference between magnetic and true north. The essential point is not a particular compass design; it is using a declination value appropriate to the place and date.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Does the moving pole mean a reversal is imminent?
No. Secular variation and a geomagnetic reversal are different phenomena. Secular variation is the ordinary, ongoing evolution of the field, including movement of the modeled poles. A reversal is a large-scale change in field polarity. Historical overviews from NOAA distinguish drift from reversals, and NOAA’s short-term assessment says a pole flip has no short-term environmental change or threat to life.
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Therefore, the present northward drift is not evidence on its own that a reversal is about to occur. A model update, a faster interval of drift or a change in compass declination should not be presented as a reversal forecast.
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How to compare a pole coordinate from two sources
When two websites list different positions, check three attributes before deciding that they disagree.
| Check | Question to ask | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Definition | Is the source giving a magnetic pole defined by field direction, or a geomagnetic pole derived from a dipole? | The two locations are related but not interchangeable. |
| Model | Does it use WMM, IGRF or another field model? | Different coefficients and methods produce different derived positions. |
| Epoch | For what date is the model valid? | Secular variation means a coordinate can become outdated as the field changes. |
| Resolution and purpose | Is the source intended for general navigation, a higher-resolution analysis or a scientific reconstruction? | The appropriate model depends on the accuracy and geographic scale required. |
What remains uncertain
The existence of core-driven secular variation is not in doubt, but predicting every detail of the path is difficult. Earth’s outer core cannot be observed directly like a surface weather system. Scientists infer its behavior from magnetic measurements collected over time and from physical models of the interior. The field also includes regional and short-term components that can influence a calculated pole position.
That is why responsible reports attach a date, definition and model to every coordinate. A statement such as “the pole is at this longitude” is incomplete unless it also says which pole, which model and which epoch.
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The practical answer in one sentence
Earth’s magnetic poles move because changing convection and electrical flow in the liquid outer core continually reshape the planet’s magnetic field; the resulting secular variation changes modeled pole positions and compass declination, while ordinary drift alone is not a warning that a reversal is imminent.
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