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Do not start with the lithium price or a company’s presentation. Start by proving what the project has actually demonstrated, what remains an assumption, and what could stop it from advancing. An exploration prospect, a resource-stage project, a preliminary economic assessment (PEA), a pre-feasibility study (PFS), and a feasibility-stage project carry very different evidence and financing risks.
Use the checklist below to assess the project’s technical evidence, legal rights, approvals, economics, market route, and funding runway. Compare projects only at comparable stages and treat management targets as targets until independent technical or legal records support them.
1. Establish the project’s real development stage
Ask for the latest dated work program and complete technical study, not just a slide labelled “advanced” or “near production.” Ontario’s mining sequence describes evaluation through mineral-resource reporting, a preliminary economic assessment, a pre-feasibility study, and a feasibility study. Evaluation covers geology, mining methods, processing, infrastructure, staffing, economics, pricing, financing, and life-of-mine expenditure; a construction decision follows better deposit definition and economic studies.
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What each stage should prove
| Stage | Evidence you should expect | What it does not prove |
|---|---|---|
| Exploration | Tenure, geological model, exploration results, sampling and drilling plan, and a credible next-work program | A mineable resource, economic viability, permits, or a defined product |
| Mineral resource | A current estimate classified under the applicable reporting code, with supporting drilling, assays, quality controls, cut-off grade and assumptions | A reserve, construction decision, financing, or a guaranteed recovery rate |
| PEA | A preliminary mine and process concept, production schedule, capital and operating estimates, and economic sensitivities | Feasibility-level accuracy or permission to build |
| PFS | A more developed mine plan, flowsheet, infrastructure design, cost estimate and risk analysis | Final permits, financing, or proven commercial performance |
| Feasibility study | A detailed technical and economic case intended to support a construction decision, subject to remaining approvals and financing | Guaranteed returns or immunity from price, schedule and operating risk |
For every claimed milestone, record its effective date, author, reporting standard, scope, and list of work still required before construction. A company’s forecast date for a PFS or production is not evidence that the work is complete.
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2. Test the resource estimate, classification and assumptions
Obtain the full current technical report and identify the competent or qualified person responsible for it. Check the applicable reporting code and jurisdiction, effective date, drilling density, sample selection, assay laboratory, quality assurance and quality control, estimation method, resource classification and cut-off grade. The estimate should explain why the material has “reasonable prospects” of eventual extraction, including assumptions about mining, processing, infrastructure and prices.
Resource is not reserve
An inferred, indicated or measured mineral resource is a geological estimate. A mineral reserve requires additional modifying factors—such as mining, metallurgical, infrastructure, legal, environmental, social and economic work—to demonstrate that extraction is economically justified under stated conditions. Never substitute a large resource number for a reserve or for project value.
How to read a project-specific example
The McDermitt Lithium Project S-K 1300 Initial Assessment, dated May 2026, reports 1,030 million tonnes of indicated resource at 1,450 parts per million lithium and 1,440 million tonnes of inferred resource at 1,320 parts per million, using a 1,000-ppm cut-off. It reports no mineral reserves. Those figures illustrate how classification and footnotes change the meaning of a headline tonnage; they are not typical lithium-project benchmarks. The report states that its estimate depends on assumptions including lithium-carbonate price, costs and process recovery, and that inferred material is too speculative for modifying factors to establish reserves.
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- The complete technical report, appendices, data tables and any later amendment.
- Drill-hole collars, intervals, recovery data, assay certificates and laboratory quality-control results, subject to lawful disclosure limits.
- Resource tables by classification, grade, thickness, depth, density and cut-off grade.
- The sensitivity of tonnes and grade to alternative cut-off grades and geological interpretations.
- A reconciliation, if mining has begun, between predicted and observed tonnes, grade and recovery.
Be especially cautious when a presentation displays “lithium carbonate equivalent” without showing contained lithium, conversion assumptions and recovery. A contained-metal figure is not the same as saleable product.
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3. Verify metallurgy and the product that can actually be sold
Lithium projects can be hard-rock, brine, clay or other deposit types; a process route that works for one cannot be assumed for another. Ask how representative the test samples are of the ore body, whether testing is bench, pilot or demonstration scale, and which results are measured rather than modelled.
Metallurgical checklist
- Recovery at each process step and the range across ore types and grades.
- Impurity removal, reagent consumption, energy demand and water balance.
- Waste, tailings and residue characteristics, including stability and disposal requirements.
- Expected product—concentrate, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide or another specification—and its impurity limits.
- Scale-up evidence from continuous or pilot testing, not only short laboratory batches.
- Product qualification requirements and the time and cost needed for customer approval.
The Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources identifies complex mineralogy and specialised processing as technical risks. In the McDermitt assessment, the qualified persons state that an assumed 2% lithium loss during impurity removal and carbonate production had not been verified by dedicated testwork; actual losses could be higher. Recalculate production and revenue using a conservative loss range rather than silently treating the assumption as a measured result.
4. Confirm tenure, land access, permits and closure obligations
Request a map and legal schedule covering every mineral claim or lease, surface rights, water rights, access roads, royalties, options, joint-venture interests and other encumbrances. Verify boundaries in the relevant government registry and check whether the company owns the rights or merely has an option to earn them.
Permit status is a risk register
List each exploration, construction, water, environmental, transport, processing and operating permit. For each, record the issuing authority, application date, statutory consultation, conditions, expected decision, appeal rights and any litigation. An exploration permit does not authorize mine construction or commercial production.
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Review baseline water, biodiversity, cultural-heritage and community studies; proposed water supply and discharge; tailings and waste plans; rehabilitation and closure costs; and the required financial assurance. Identify who pays if the project is abandoned or the company becomes insolvent.
The McDermitt report illustrates why legal details matter: it notes ambiguity about claim type and coverage, numerous federal, state and local permits, anticipated opposition, and two appeals against an exploration permit. Those are project-specific facts, but the due-diligence principle applies broadly: an attractive deposit without secure rights and a credible approval path may not be investable.
Community and Indigenous relations
Check consultation records, agreements, unresolved objections and the legal rights of affected Indigenous or local communities. Distinguish a public-relations announcement from a signed agreement with enforceable obligations, benefit sharing, monitoring and dispute procedures.
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Read the assumptions section of the PEA, PFS or feasibility study and classify the estimate by maturity. A preliminary estimate should not be presented as if it has feasibility-level accuracy.
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Inputs to verify
- Mine plan, strip ratio or well-field design, mining rate, throughput and operating years.
- Head grade, dilution, recovery, product grade and payable terms.
- Initial capital, sustaining capital, operating costs, contingency, owner’s costs and closure expenditure.
- Construction schedule, commissioning ramp-up and realistic permitting dates.
- Taxes, royalties, government payments, inflation, exchange rates and discount rate.
- Lithium-price basis, price deck date, long-term versus spot assumptions and treatment of by-products.
- Working capital, financing fees and interest during construction.
Victorian mineral-resource guidance says economic viability should be assessed objectively from the resource, commodity price and foreseeable extraction costs; it is distinct from the applicant’s immediate financial capability. A company can have cash today while the project remains uneconomic, or have a viable study while lacking the funds to build it.
Run downside cases
Recalculate the economics for lower prices, lower recovery, higher capital and operating costs, delayed production, weaker throughput, additional water or tailings work, and higher financing costs. Examine which variable breaks the project first and how much contingency remains. A single NPV, internal rate of return or payback period is not a risk analysis.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.6. Check whether a saleable product has a credible route to market
Identify the intended product specification, buyer pool, transport route, processing location and price reference. Ask whether customers have tested representative samples and whether qualification is complete, pending or conditional.
Read offtake documents precisely
Classify every memorandum of understanding, term sheet and offtake contract as binding or non-binding. Note minimum volumes, pricing formula, quality penalties, take-or-pay obligations, exclusivity, termination rights, conditions precedent, financing requirements and permit or product-qualification conditions. A non-binding announcement is not secured revenue.
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Australia’s Critical Minerals Strategy 2023–2030 warns that concentrated supply chains, opaque markets and limited pricing data can challenge offtake, equity and debt finance. Test the model against a wider buyer set and transparent price references rather than assuming one proposed customer will remain available.
7. Measure funding runway, dilution and the next financing cliff
Build a milestone cash schedule from the current balance sheet. Compare cash and committed funding with the cost and timing of drilling, studies, permitting, pilot work, land payments and corporate overhead.
Questions for the capital structure
- What cash is unrestricted, and when does it run out under the stated work program?
- Which funds are committed, conditional, refundable or dependent on a share issue?
- How much equity must be raised before the next technical milestone, and what dilution would that create?
- Are debt facilities secured, subject to covenants, or contingent on permits, offtake or a feasibility study?
- Do strategic partners receive royalties, streams, options, offtake discounts or other priority rights?
- What work is cut first if a financing is delayed or market conditions deteriorate?
The Australian strategy describes junior proponents as facing large capital and energy requirements and difficulty securing equity, debt and offtake. Treat a financing plan as a sequence of risks, not as proof that capital is available.
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Mining, environmental, water, consultation, tax, foreign-investment and securities rules depend on the host country, state or province and the investor’s residence and instrument. Obtain local legal advice before committing funds.
Australia provides a useful example of why jurisdiction matters: guidance last updated 2 January 2026 says acquisitions of mining or production tenements generally require notification regardless of value, subject to exceptions. Separate tests apply to foreign-government investors and securities acquisitions. That Australian rule should not be generalized to projects elsewhere; identify the exact tenement, buyer, ownership percentage and transaction structure first.
9. Compare projects on evidence, not promotional maturity
Use a like-for-like scorecard. Do not rank an exploration prospect against a feasibility-stage project without showing the different uncertainty and capital burden.
| Comparison axis | Evidence to record | Warning sign |
|---|---|---|
| Evidence maturity | Current report, reporting code, effective date and independent author | Only a corporate presentation or undated estimate |
| Technical uncertainty | Drilling density, metallurgy scale, recovery range and product qualification | Unverified recovery or impurity assumptions |
| Permitting and social risk | Tenure, permit register, appeals, consultation and closure security | Unresolved rights, opposition or missing baseline work |
| Capital to next milestone | Budget, schedule, contingency and committed funding | Milestone depends on an unannounced equity raise |
| Market evidence | Product specification, qualified buyers and enforceability of offtake | Non-binding interest described as contracted revenue |
| Funding runway | Cash burn, debt conditions and dilution at the next raise | Cash expires before the next critical study |
10. A practical document-review sequence
- Collect the latest technical report, financial statements, presentations, permit register, tenure documents and material contracts.
- Write down the project stage and the precise next decision—resource update, PEA, PFS, feasibility, permit or financing.
- Trace every headline number to its table, footnote, effective date and responsible technical person.
- Separate measured results from assumptions, targets and management forecasts.
- Build a downside model for price, recovery, cost, schedule and financing.
- Verify rights, approvals, appeals, community obligations and closure liabilities with jurisdiction-specific counsel.
- Decide what evidence would invalidate the investment case and whether you can obtain it before investing.
This process does not predict the lithium market or guarantee an investment outcome. It prevents a resource headline, an unverified flowsheet or a non-binding offtake announcement from being mistaken for a funded, permitted mine.
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