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Before committing capital, a company should independently test a critical raw-materials project’s technical evidence, economics, permits, infrastructure, environmental and social impacts, governance, financing, and route to market. The review must be matched to the mineral, jurisdiction, development stage, transaction structure, and the investor’s risk tolerance. A feasibility study is stronger evidence than a pre-feasibility study, but neither guarantees permits, schedule, costs, community support, or returns.
Start with the investment question and the project’s evidence level
Define what the investment is meant to achieve before reviewing the project. A strategic buyer seeking secure supply may value product quality, location, and offtake control differently from a financial investor seeking a defined risk-adjusted return. State the required return, maximum construction exposure, acceptable jurisdictions, target production date, and whether the investment is equity, debt, an offtake prepayment, a joint venture, or another structure.
Then establish exactly what has been studied. The project’s mineral, deposit type, country, ownership, development stage, and proposed transaction determine which evidence is relevant. Do not treat a promotional presentation, a preliminary economic assessment, and a bankable financing case as equivalent.
Preliminary economic assessment, pre-feasibility, and feasibility studies
| Study stage | What it generally shows | How an investor should use it |
|---|---|---|
| Preliminary economic assessment | Early technical and economic concept based on less mature information and a broad range of assumptions. | Use it to identify options and diligence questions, not as proof that financing or construction is ready. |
| Pre-feasibility study | A comprehensive study of options in which a preferred mining method or pit configuration and an effective processing method have been identified. | Test the underlying geology, engineering, costs, schedule, and assumptions; require further work before treating the case as investment-ready. |
| Feasibility study | Under the JORC Code, a higher-confidence study normally containing mining, infrastructure, and process designs completed with enough rigor to support an investment decision or project financing. | Use it as a basis for detailed review, while checking the underlying data, independent technical work, effective date, changes since publication, and remaining execution risks. |
The JORC Code 2012 definition is a study-stage guide, not a guarantee that a project will meet its schedule, cost, permitting, or return targets. Ask who prepared and reviewed the work, whether the competent persons are independent, which resource and reserve classifications were used, and what information post-dates the study.
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Disclosure rules vary. NI 43-101 is a useful example of the detail expected in a technical report, including mining methods; energy, water, and process-material requirements; roads, rail, ports, tailings, and other infrastructure; capital and operating costs; and qualified-person review. Check the rule that applies to the issuer and project, the report’s effective date, and all material changes since it was filed. See the NI 43-101 regulation.
Verify the resource, reserve, mine plan, and processing route
Resource and reserve confidence
- Reconcile the exploration database, drilling density, sampling methods, laboratory quality controls, geological model, density assumptions, and estimation method.
- Distinguish a mineral resource from a mineable reserve and identify the modifying factors that convert one to the other.
- Check cut-off grades, dilution, mining recovery, geotechnical assumptions, metallurgical domains, and whether the reserve is economically viable under current prices and costs.
- Review independent technical opinions and unresolved data gaps rather than relying on a headline tonnage or contained-metal number.
Mining and processing performance
Rebuild the production schedule from mine sequencing, stripping or development requirements, equipment availability, workforce assumptions, and ramp-up rates. For processing, verify test-work scale, ore variability, recoveries, reagent and energy consumption, water demand, concentrate or product specifications, impurities, treatment and refining charges, and the fate of by-products. A flowsheet that works on a selected sample may not work across the full orebody.
Check whether the proposed technology is commercially demonstrated at the planned scale. Identify single points of failure, long-lead equipment, spare-parts requirements, commissioning dependencies, and the consequence of lower recovery or slower ramp-up. Require a closure and post-closure plan that is technically credible and funded in the financial model.
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Obtain the full model, assumptions book, schedules, supporting quotations, and sensitivity tables. Independently reproduce the base case and document every adjustment. A quoted net present value or internal rate of return is only as reliable as its price deck, production profile, costs, taxes, and timing.
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Inputs to test
| Area | Questions to answer |
|---|---|
| Revenue | What commodity and product prices, quality penalties, payability, by-product credits, treatment and refining charges, royalties, and transport costs are assumed? |
| Production | Do recoveries, throughput, availability, grade, dilution, ramp-up, and mine life match independent technical evidence? |
| Capital | Are estimates based on current supplier quotations? Do they include owners’ costs, indirects, contingency, escalation, sustaining capital, replacement equipment, and working capital? |
| Operating costs | How sensitive are labor, diesel, explosives, reagents, power, water, maintenance, logistics, insurance, and contractor rates to inflation and local currency movements? |
| Government take | Are taxes, royalties, duties, withholding taxes, state participation, surface payments, and closure obligations modeled under the current law? |
| Timing and finance | Does the model include construction interest, drawdown timing, financing fees, foreign-exchange effects, refinancing, and delays to first production? |
Run failure cases, not just modest sensitivities
Test lower prices, higher capital and operating costs, reduced recovery, delayed permits, slower construction, a delayed ramp-up, weaker product payability, currency depreciation, and temporary production interruptions. Combine adverse assumptions in scenarios rather than changing one variable at a time only. Identify the assumptions that cause the project to miss its investment threshold, breach covenants, require new equity, or become unable to fund closure.
OECD identifies the size and predictability of revenue streams as a critical-minerals investment parameter; battery-metal revenues can be volatile because demand and supply both fluctuate. Its guidance also highlights environmental, social, governance, and financial-integrity risks. There is no universal return hurdle or price forecast for every project. See OECD’s analysis of development finance and critical minerals.
Map permits, land rights, water, power, and logistics
Build a permit register from the applicable local legal regime. For every approval, record the responsible authority, application status, consultation requirement, decision criteria, dependencies, appeal exposure, renewal conditions, expiry date, and activity that cannot begin until the permit is granted. Put those approvals on the construction and financing critical path.
Access and infrastructure checks
- Confirm legal title or tenure for the mineral rights, surface land, easements, camps, pipelines, transmission lines, roads, rail, ports, and processing sites.
- Verify the source, allocation, quality, seasonal availability, treatment, discharge rights, and cost of water.
- Obtain evidence of power capacity, connection timing, tariff, reliability, backup generation, and curtailment risk.
- Check whether roads, railways, ports, tailings facilities, waste-rock areas, pipelines, and third-party plants are permitted, financed, available at the required capacity, and controlled by a reliable counterparty.
- Model rainy-season, winter, flood, earthquake, wildfire, border, and security disruptions where relevant to the site and route.
The International Energy Agency notes that environmental requirements are often enforced through permits and that obtaining them can extend lead times. Streamlining should not remove the ability to maintain and enforce environmental and social standards. Read its discussion of sustainable and responsible practices.
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Assess environmental, health, human-rights, and community risks
Review baseline conditions and predicted impacts for construction, operations, closure, and post-closure. Require site-specific evidence rather than broad statements that a project is sustainable or socially accepted.
Environmental and safety scope
- Water balance, groundwater drawdown, surface-water quality, competing users, discharge limits, and treatment failures.
- Biodiversity, protected areas, habitat fragmentation, species impacts, restoration commitments, and climate-related hazards.
- Waste rock, hazardous materials, acid or metalliferous drainage, tailings design, dam-break consequences, monitoring, independent review, and emergency response.
- Air emissions, greenhouse-gas sources, noise, dust, traffic, worker exposure, occupational health, and community health and safety.
- Closure design, progressive rehabilitation, monitoring after closure, financial security, and responsibility if the operator fails.
People, Indigenous Peoples, and remedy
Identify affected communities, land users, workers, Indigenous Peoples, cultural-heritage interests, and groups that may be excluded from formal consultations. Check whether engagement began early enough to influence the design, whether information was understandable and accessible, and whether commitments are recorded, budgeted, and monitored. Review resettlement, compensation, labor conditions, security arrangements, human-rights allegations, grievance channels, response times, and remedy outcomes.
The World Bank’s Environmental and Social Framework contains ten Environmental and Social Standards addressing labor, inclusion, gender, climate, biodiversity, community health and safety, and stakeholder engagement for applicable Bank-financed projects initiated on or after October 1, 2018. It is a reference framework, not automatically the governing standard for a private project.
IEA warns that community opposition can result in protests, litigation, permit denials, or disruption, while corruption can create liability, permitting delays, operational delays, and instability. These are risk pathways to investigate, not evidence that a particular project has misconduct or opposition. OECD’s Handbook on Environmental Due Diligence in Mineral Supply Chains recommends identifying, assessing, preventing or mitigating, tracking, communicating, and providing for remediation of adverse impacts.
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Investigate ownership, integrity, and the mineral’s route to market
Corporate and legal integrity
- Verify beneficial ownership, corporate authority, mineral tenure, licenses, concessions, joint-venture rights, and change-of-control provisions.
- Screen owners, directors, agents, lenders, contractors, and major counterparties for politically exposed-person, sanctions, conflict, corruption, fraud, and money-laundering risks.
- Review anti-bribery controls, procurement, related-party transactions, tax and royalty arrangements, payment disclosures, audits, litigation, and government interactions.
- Confirm that land, water, transport, power, and processing contracts are enforceable, transferable, and not dependent on undocumented promises.
Product, traceability, and buyers
Trace material, where feasible, from extraction through traders, processors, refiners, and intended buyers. Confirm product specifications, qualification requirements, chain-of-custody controls, export restrictions, sanctions exposure, logistics, insurance, and available processing capacity. Test whether proposed offtake agreements specify volume, quality, pricing formula, payability, delivery point, force majeure, termination, credit support, and consequences of delayed or substandard product.
OECD’s responsible-minerals due-diligence case study describes traceability as a platform for embedding environmental, social, and governance data, while recommending an approach that supports inclusion and market access. Treat traceability claims as controls to test, not as proof of responsible production.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Check financing certainty and transaction protections
Separate indicative interest from legally committed capital. For each proposed funding source, document amount, currency, tenor, pricing, security, covenants, conditions precedent, drawdown tests, political-risk requirements, refinancing assumptions, and the consequences of cost overruns or commissioning delays. Match debt currency and repayment profile to project cash flows and consider whether a local-currency shock can trigger default.
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IFC states that metals and minerals financing can include equity, quasi-equity, corporate- and project-level debt, and capital mobilized from third parties. This describes financing forms, not a commitment to a specific project. Its current sector page reports approximately $5.3 billion invested and mobilized over the decade it describes; that figure is portfolio activity, not a return benchmark or estimate of available funding. See IFC Metals and Minerals.
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Protect the investment with information rights, consent rights over material changes, independent engineer reporting, completion tests, cost-overrun funding arrangements, step-in rights where appropriate, insurance requirements, and clear remedies for missed milestones. Confirm who bears closure, remediation, reclamation, and abandonment liabilities if the project is sold or suspended.
Compare candidate projects on a consistent basis
Use one comparison workbook with the same currency, inflation convention, price deck, discount-rate method, tax treatment, schedule definitions, contingency policy, and risk categories. Do not let one project use a best-case price and another use a conservative price.
| Comparison axis | Evidence to record |
|---|---|
| Resource and study maturity | Resource and reserve confidence, effective date, study stage, independent review, and unresolved technical gaps. |
| Mine and plant | Mining method, recovery, product quality, throughput, ramp-up, technology maturity, and operating complexity. |
| Capital and operating exposure | Initial and sustaining capital, unit costs, contingency, escalation, closure funding, and downside cases. |
| Infrastructure and permits | Water, power, transport, tailings, land rights, permit critical path, dependencies, appeals, and renewal risk. |
| Environmental and social profile | Water and biodiversity exposure, waste and tailings risk, safety, Indigenous and community engagement, resettlement, and remedy. |
| Governance and integrity | Ownership, tenure, contracts, corruption controls, sanctions and conflict exposure, tax transparency, and related parties. |
| Market and financing | Product qualification, offtake quality, processing access, buyer concentration, committed funding, covenants, and refinancing risk. |
| Resilience and strategic fit | Price and schedule downside performance, supply-chain value, jurisdictional fit, and fit with the investor’s mandate. |
Weight these axes according to the mandate and context. A project with a lower modeled return may be preferable if its permits, water, financing, and offtake are substantially more certain; that is a decision-specific conclusion, not a universal ranking.
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- Set the decision criteria. Approve the required return, downside tolerance, strategic objectives, prohibited risks, and evidence standard before reviewing management’s preferred outcome.
- Build the evidence room. Request the latest technical studies, models, raw data summaries, permits, contracts, environmental and social assessments, consultation records, ownership documents, financing term sheets, insurance, and litigation schedules.
- Commission independent reviews. Use appropriately qualified geological, mining, metallurgical, engineering, environmental, social, legal, tax, insurance, and market specialists. Their work supports, but does not replace, the investor’s own accountability and applicable qualified-person review.
- Model downside and delay. Run integrated scenarios and identify the assumptions that destroy value, liquidity, covenant headroom, or closure funding.
- Record conditions. Convert unresolved issues into explicit conditions precedent, milestones, covenants, mitigation budgets, monitoring obligations, price protections, or reasons to decline.
- Approve only with evidence. Require dated owners, deadlines, and escalation triggers for every material condition. Revisit the decision when permits, resource estimates, designs, prices, or counterparties change.
Red flags that should stop or pause a commitment
- A study is presented as feasibility-level but lacks underlying data, independent review, a clear effective date, or a coherent mine and process design.
- Returns depend on an uncontracted price, unverified recovery, uncommitted infrastructure, or a permit described as routine without a status record.
- Water, tailings, closure, resettlement, or community impacts are missing from the model or assigned no funded mitigation.
- Ownership, beneficial owners, mineral tenure, related-party payments, sanctions screening, or government contracts cannot be verified.
- Oftake is described as “interest” or a memorandum without binding volume, quality, pricing, delivery, and credit terms.
- Financing is announced without signed commitments, conditions precedent, cost-overrun support, or a credible plan for delays.
A critical raw-materials project is investable only to the extent that its technical case, legal right to operate, impact management, financing, and market assumptions are evidenced and resilient under stress. The final decision should state what is proven, what remains conditional, who owns each action, and which change would trigger a re-underwrite.
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