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Material nonpublic information (MNPI) in a U.S. prediction market is not simply any fact that other traders have not heard. Under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) enforcement theory most relevant to regulated event contracts, the concern arises when a person possesses information important to a market, uses or tips it in breach of a pre-existing duty of trust and confidence owed to its source, and acts with the required scienter (a culpable state of mind).
That framework comes from the CFTC’s anti-fraud explanation of the misappropriation theory. It applies within the scope of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), CFTC-regulated products and applicable exchange rules. It is not a universal definition for every offshore platform, contract, or country.
The three elements that make information-based trading an insider-trading concern
CFTC Enforcement Director David Miller described the misappropriation theory in remarks at NYU Law School published in 2026. In his formulation, liability attaches when an individual:
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- Misappropriates it by trading or tipping in breach of a duty of trust and confidence owed to the information’s source.
- Acts with scienter. The person must have the legally required culpable mental state; the remarks do not reduce the issue to accidental possession of an undisclosed fact.
This is a source-and-duty test as well as an information test. A trader can have an informational advantage without automatically committing federal insider trading. Investigators must examine how the person obtained the information, whether a duty existed, whether the person traded or tipped in violation of that duty, and the person’s state of mind.
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Why “secret” is not enough
Calling information “nonpublic” describes its availability, not the entire legal violation. A confidential production schedule, injury report or unreleased announcement may be unavailable to ordinary traders, but the CFTC’s account asks an additional question: did the trader exploit it in breach of a duty to the source? Without that relationship and breach, the misappropriation theory is not established merely by showing that the market had not yet learned the fact.
Trading and tipping are both covered conduct
The theory reaches a person who trades personally and a person who passes the information to someone else who trades. A tipper’s exposure therefore cannot be avoided by giving the order to a friend, family member, colleague or trading group. Whether a particular communication is unlawful depends on the same duty, breach and scienter analysis.
What makes information “material” in an event contract?
The CFTC remarks do not provide a complete, stand-alone materiality checklist for every prediction-market contract. In practical terms, information is potentially material when a reasonable trader would view it as important to the event’s outcome, timing or settlement. Examples could include a fact that changes the probability of the named event, reveals that an outcome has already been determined, or is likely to move prices when released.
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That explanation is an intuitive guide, not a substitute for a legal determination. Contract wording, settlement rules, the information’s reliability and the surrounding facts all matter. A rumor, an educated guess and a confirmed confidential fact may have very different evidentiary value even if they concern the same event.
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Examples of potentially material information
- An unreleased video or announcement that directly determines whether a contract’s specified event occurs.
- Confidential knowledge that a scheduled event has been cancelled, delayed or materially changed before the market is notified.
- Nonpublic information about a participant’s health or injury when the contract turns on that person’s performance, an issue discussed in the CFTC’s 2024 proposed-rule materials.
- Information showing that an outcome is effectively fixed, provided the person learned it through a protected relationship and the contract’s terms make it relevant.
These are illustrations of relevance, not a finding that every employee, athlete, candidate or contractor who knows such a fact has violated federal law.
What makes information “nonpublic”?
Information is potentially nonpublic when it remains confidential or unreleased rather than being broadly available through an official disclosure or widespread distribution. The timing and quality of dissemination matter. A fact posted on an issuer’s public channel, announced by the exchange or incorporated into the contract’s official information may no longer be nonpublic, while a private message, internal file or embargoed communication ordinarily remains restricted.
Public visibility is not always binary. A narrow rumor, a specialist’s inference or a comment visible to only a small group may not be equivalent to broad public disclosure. The sources reviewed do not establish a universal audience-size threshold, so readers should avoid treating one social-media post or a handful of copied messages as a definitive safe harbor.
The source relationship is the critical bridge
Misappropriation requires a pre-existing duty of trust and confidence owed to the source. Such a duty can arise from employment, a formal affiliation, a confidentiality agreement, professional obligations or another relationship in which the recipient is expected to keep the information from being used for personal trading. The legal analysis is fact-specific; merely being near an event or knowing a participant does not automatically create the duty.
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A 2026 CFTC advisory illustrates the analysis
In an advisory dated February 25, 2026, the CFTC described an individual who traded markets tied to a YouTube channel while employed by or formally affiliated with that channel. According to the advisory, the trader worked as an editor and likely had advance knowledge of video contents before the videos were posted publicly.
The exchange, Kalshi, found a reasonable basis to conclude that the information had been misappropriated in breach of a pre-existing duty. The CFTC reported a financial outcome of $20,397.58, consisting of $5,397.58 in disgorged profits and a $15,000 penalty, together with a two-year suspension from direct or indirect exchange access.
This is one exchange case, not a general penalty schedule. It shows why access obtained through a job or formal affiliation can be important, but it does not mean every employee’s trade is automatically illegal. The facts still have to connect the confidential information to the contract, the duty to the source, the trading or tipping, and the person’s state of mind.
Potential CEA provisions identified in the advisory
The advisory discussed potential issues under CEA Section 6(c)(1) and CFTC Regulation 180.1(a)(1) and (3), provisions addressing a manipulative scheme or artifice to defraud and conduct operating as a fraud on another person. The advisory’s “potentially” language matters: it identifies provisions that may apply to an information-based scheme; it is not a ruling that every trade based on an informational advantage violates those provisions.
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Federal law and exchange rules are separate layers
CFTC customer guidance states that each CFTC-regulated exchange must establish and enforce its own trading rules and monitor activity for anomalies and abuses such as insider trading. Those contractual and market-conduct rules can be broader or more specific than the federal anti-fraud theory.
Kalshi’s published screening and surveillance policy, for example, describes restrictions involving political persons and sports professionals and lists categories of people it screens. Those are that platform’s rules, not a universal statutory definition of MNPI. A person can therefore face an exchange investigation, suspension or voided position under a rulebook even when the facts do not establish a federal enforcement violation.
Check the contract before trading
For any venue, review the exact event-contract terms, prohibited-person provisions, information-use restrictions, settlement methodology, surveillance authority, penalties and appeal or dispute process. The governing product classification and jurisdiction determine which CEA and CFTC rules are relevant. An offshore or differently classified market may operate under a different legal regime, and the CFTC framework should not be silently extended to it.
What the 2024 proposed rule does—and does not—say
CFTC materials accompanying a 2024 proposed rule discussed event-contract risks such as a participant’s ability to influence an event or access to information about a player’s health or injury. Those materials are proposal text, not final law and not a completed, general definition of MNPI for prediction markets.
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Use the proposal as evidence of issues the agency considered, not as proof that a particular category of information is now prohibited everywhere. Final contract rules, later enforcement actions and the applicable exchange rulebook control the analysis for a live market.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.A practical pre-trade decision process
The following sequence helps identify risk without pretending to be a bright-line legal test.
- Define the contract precisely. Read the event description, resolution source, cutoff time and settlement conditions. Identify which fact would actually move or determine the contract’s value.
- Describe the information. Record what you know, when you learned it, how reliable it is and whether it has been officially released to the market.
- Map the source relationship. Ask whether the source imposed confidentiality, whether your job or affiliation gave you access, and whether a written or recognized duty restricts personal use.
- Separate observation from protected access. A public broadcast, ordinary analysis or independently developed estimate is different from an internal file, embargoed message or private briefing.
- Check trading and tipping rules. Determine whether the venue bans trading by a class of persons, use of nonpublic information, disclosure to others, attempts to influence outcomes or all of these.
- Consider intent and documentation. If the trade would look like exploiting confidential access, do not trade or pass the information while seeking advice from qualified counsel. Preserve the relevant communications and rule version rather than deleting them.
Common situations compared
| Situation | Why it may matter | What is still unresolved |
|---|---|---|
| Employee learns an unreleased company or channel announcement | Employment or affiliation may create a duty to the source; the fact may directly affect a related contract. | Whether the information is material, the duty’s scope, the connection to the contract and scienter. |
| Athlete hears a teammate’s injury privately | The injury could materially change a sports outcome, and a team or league relationship may impose restrictions. | Applicable venue rules, confidentiality obligations, contract wording and whether the information was publicly disclosed. |
| Trader reads a public report and forms an independent forecast | Independent analysis of public information is generally different from misappropriating a source’s confidential information. | Whether the report was genuinely public and whether any undisclosed source information was also used. |
| Friend receives a tip from an insider | Tipping and trading can both implicate the misappropriation theory; the recipient may be part of the information chain. | The tipper’s duty, the recipient’s knowledge, the information’s materiality and applicable exchange rules. |
| Person can influence the event being traded | Influence creates a manipulation concern distinct from ordinary informational advantage and was discussed in the CFTC’s proposal materials. | Whether the conduct violates the contract, exchange rules or final applicable law. |
How venues investigate and penalize suspected misuse
A regulated exchange is responsible for monitoring its activity for anomalies and abuses. Surveillance may lead to questions about account ownership, communications, employment, affiliations, order timing or the relationship between a public release and a trade. Venue rules can authorize restrictions while an investigation proceeds and can impose consequences separate from a CFTC case.
The 2026 advisory demonstrates the range of consequences one platform reported: disgorgement of profits, an additional monetary penalty and suspension from direct or indirect access. It should not be read as a mandatory formula. Other cases may involve different facts, remedies or procedural rights.
Questions the sources cannot answer categorically
There is no universal all-platform checklist in the CFTC materials reviewed. They provide a legal theory, agency guidance and an enforcement example, but not a single materiality threshold that resolves every event contract. They also do not establish a market-wide prevalence rate or an enforcement-success percentage.
Accordingly, statements such as “any employee information is illegal,” “any rumor is public,” or “a platform rule is the same as federal law” go beyond the evidence. The defensible approach is to identify the information, source, duty, breach, trading or tipping, scienter, contract terms and governing jurisdiction separately.
Bottom line for U.S. prediction-market traders
Information counts as potentially material nonpublic information when it is important to a contract and remains confidential or unreleased, but the CFTC’s misappropriation framework requires more than secrecy. The central questions are whether the trader or tipper owed the source a pre-existing duty of trust and confidence, breached that duty by using or sharing the information, and acted with scienter. Exchange rulebooks may impose additional restrictions, and the 2026 CFTC advisory shows that employment-based access can lead to disgorgement, penalties and suspension. Treat the CEA/CFTC analysis, the exact contract terms and the venue’s own surveillance policy as distinct layers before placing a trade.
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