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When fuel markets make soybean oil more valuable, crushers process more soybeans. The bean yields oil and soybean meal together, so increased crushing also creates more meal—even though the meal is not used as fuel. Domestic livestock feeding absorbs much of that output; any surplus can move into exports, inventories, or lower prices, depending on demand and trade conditions.

What soybean crushing produces

A soybean is not separated into a single useful stream. At a crushing plant, processing produces soybean oil and a protein-rich meal at the same time. The meal is primarily a livestock-feed ingredient, while the oil can go to food, industrial products, exports, or biomass-based diesel.

The U.S. Foreign Agricultural Service describes a typical output relationship of roughly four parts meal to one part oil. That is a rounded industry description, not a guaranteed yield: bean composition, plant technology, moisture, and operating conditions change the exact result. The important economic point is that a plant cannot normally increase oil production without also increasing meal production.

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The joint-product chain

  1. Beans enter the crusher. Farmers, elevators, or traders supply soybeans to a domestic processing plant.
  2. The plant separates oil and meal. Oil becomes the higher-value stream when demand for food oils, industrial uses, or biofuel feedstocks is strong; meal emerges as the linked coproduct.
  3. Feed users and exporters compete for the meal. Poultry, hog, dairy, aquaculture, and other feed manufacturers buy meal according to protein needs, rations, prices, and production levels.
  4. Markets clear the extra supply. If meal output grows faster than domestic use, exporters, storage facilities, and price adjustments absorb the difference.

Why fuel demand can increase meal output

Historically, feed demand was a central reason to crush soybeans, with oil providing an additional revenue stream. Growth in biomass-based diesel changes the balance: a stronger oil market can justify running plants at higher rates or building additional capacity. The fuel signal therefore raises the supply of a feed ingredient that the fuel market never directly consumes.

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USDA Economic Research Service explains that The higher usage of soybean oil in biomass-based diesel production is supported by California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) biofuel blending targets for refiners and importers of gasoline or diesel fuel. (USDA ERS)

EPA’s 2026 analysis shows the scale of the oil-market shift. Soybean oil used to produce biodiesel rose from approximately 5.1 billion pounds in marketing year 2013/14 to approximately 13 billion pounds in 2023/24. In the same analysis, domestic soybean crush increased 39 percent, from 1,734 million bushels in 2013/14 to 2,410 million bushels in 2024/25. Those are historical comparison figures; they do not establish that every bushel of additional crush was caused by fuel demand.

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service describes the mechanism directly: as renewable-diesel production expands, demand for vegetable-oil feedstocks can encourage more soybean processing. Because meal and oil are joint products, the resulting feed supply rises alongside the fuel-oriented oil supply. (USDA FAS)

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Where the additional soybean meal goes

The first destination is the domestic feed market. USDA ERS reports that domestic meal consumption accounts for about 74 percent of U.S. soybean meal production. That share explains why a new crush plant or higher operating rate can initially supply U.S. livestock feeders rather than immediately creating an export shipment. (USDA ERS)

When meal production grows beyond what domestic feed manufacturers can use at prevailing prices, the surplus becomes available to foreign buyers. USDA ERS reports that U.S. meal exports reached record highs from marketing year 2023/24 as crush expansion exceeded domestic demand. USDA FAS likewise links greater supplies and record export performance to the rise in crushing. This does not mean every incremental ton is exported; the split varies with feed consumption, freight costs, exchange rates, storage, and competing origins.

Market outlet How it responds to extra meal What determines the share
U.S. livestock and aquaculture feed Absorbs meal when poultry, hog, dairy, fish, and other animal production require more protein. Animal inventories, feed formulations, meal prices, and the cost of alternatives.
Exports Take supply that domestic users do not purchase; export volumes can set records during rapid crush growth. Foreign demand, port capacity, freight, currency values, and competition from other exporters.
Storage and inventories Temporarily hold meal when production arrives before buyers are ready. Warehouse capacity, carrying costs, expected prices, and the length of the demand slowdown.
Price adjustment Lower prices can encourage additional feed use or make exports competitive, helping clear supply. Crop size, existing stocks, substitutes, policy, and the responsiveness of feed demand.

How large is the potential increase?

USDA ERS forecast a U.S. soybean crush of 2.49 billion bushels for marketing year 2025/26 in a July 2025 chart note. The estimate represented a near-3-percent increase to a record and about 57 percent of projected U.S. soybean production. It is a forecast, not a verified final result, so it should not be read as the completed crop-year total. (USDA ERS forecast)

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Measure Figure Qualification
U.S. soybean crush, marketing year 2025/26 2.49 billion bushels USDA ERS forecast published in July 2025; described as nearly 3 percent above the prior level and a record estimate.
Share of projected U.S. soybean production crushed, 2025/26 About 57 percent Derived in the same USDA ERS forecast context; the share depends on the production projection.
Typical meal-to-oil output relationship Roughly 4:1 USDA FAS rounded description for a typical crushing facility, not a fixed yield.
Soybean oil used for biodiesel About 5.1 billion pounds in 2013/14; about 13 billion pounds in 2023/24 EPA historical comparison figures in a 2026 analysis.
Domestic crush in EPA comparison 1,734 million bushels in 2013/14; 2,410 million bushels in 2024/25 EPA reports a 39-percent increase across those historical comparison years.

Applying the rounded 4:1 relationship gives the direction of the effect: a higher crush produces substantially more meal alongside the additional oil. It does not provide a precise national meal total, because actual yields differ by plant and the relationship is not a policy rule or accounting constant.

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Does more meal automatically mean lower prices?

No. More crush-generated meal increases potential supply, which can put downward pressure on prices if demand and exports do not keep pace. But the eventual price depends on the whole market rather than on crush volume alone.

  • Feed demand: Expanding poultry, hog, dairy, or aquaculture production can absorb additional protein meal.
  • Crop size and inventories: A large soybean harvest or high beginning stocks can add supply independently of fuel-driven crushing.
  • Trade: Competitive U.S. prices, freight rates, exchange rates, and foreign buying determine how much meal leaves the country.
  • Substitutes: Feed manufacturers can adjust rations using other protein sources when relative prices change.
  • Plant capacity: A market incentive cannot produce more meal than available crushers can process in the relevant region and season.

A price decline is therefore one possible clearing mechanism, not a guaranteed result. Strong animal production or export demand can keep prices firm even while meal output rises; weak demand can create larger stocks and greater price pressure.

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What changes in soybean and oil trade

More domestic crushing redirects some soybean demand toward processors and may reduce whole-bean exports, all else equal. The United States then exports more processed products—meal and oil—rather than the same mix of unprocessed beans. The actual trade pattern also depends on foreign crushing capacity, tariffs, freight economics, and buyers’ preferences.

Using more U.S. soybean oil in biomass-based diesel leaves less oil available for food, industrial uses, or export markets. EPA notes that crush capacity limits near-term expansion and that food and industrial users compete with biofuel producers for the same oil. If foreign buyers receive less U.S. soybean oil, they can respond by buying other vegetable oils or sourcing oil from another country. These are market channels, not one-for-one outcomes. (EPA analysis)

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Who feels the effects first?

Livestock feeders

Feed manufacturers may see more domestic availability and, when supply is ample, more competitive meal bids. Their savings are not automatic: local basis levels, transport, formulation requirements, and prices of corn and alternative proteins also matter.

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Crushers

Crushers evaluate the combined value of oil and meal, often called the crush margin, rather than meal in isolation. Strong oil demand can support operation even when meal margins are modest, but a meal glut can eventually reduce the value of the joint output and limit further expansion.

Farmers and grain handlers

Additional processing capacity can create a nearby buyer for soybeans and alter local basis patterns. It can also change the relative attractiveness of shipping beans to an export terminal versus selling to a domestic plant.

Exporters and importing countries

Record U.S. meal exports can improve availability for overseas feed industries while changing freight flows and competition among origins. Importers may adjust purchases between U.S. meal, locally crushed beans, and other protein meals.

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How to check the latest conditions

Because crush forecasts, prices, and trade volumes change, use current releases for a live market view rather than treating any single historical figure as permanent.

  1. Check USDA ERS oil-crops coverage for explanations of domestic use, production, trade, and the role of biofuel demand. The overview is at USDA ERS Oil Crops Sector at a Glance.
  2. Read USDA FAS trade analysis when the question involves renewable diesel, feedstock competition, or global meal and oil flows: USDA FAS renewable-diesel analysis.
  3. Use USDA forecasts with their marketing-year labels. The 2025/26 2.49-billion-bushel figure is an estimate, so compare it with later revisions and final data.
  4. Review EPA’s regulatory analysis for historical comparisons of soybean-oil fuel use and domestic crush: EPA document.
  5. Follow the National Oilseed Processors Association monthly crush report for reported crush, meal output and yield, meal exports, and oil output and yield. NOPA says its report covers 20 member companies representing 99 percent of U.S. crush: NOPA monthly crush report.

The practical takeaway

Fuel demand acts on soybean meal indirectly. It can make soybean oil valuable enough to justify more crushing, and every additional crush run produces meal as well as oil. Domestic feed users absorb a substantial share, while exports, inventories, and price changes handle the remainder when output outruns U.S. demand. The size and direction of the final effect depend on feed consumption, crop supplies, processing capacity, trade conditions, substitutes, and competing uses for soybean oil—not on biofuel demand alone.

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