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The biggest risks are not ordinary commercial-real-estate risks. A data center can lose value if its promised electricity connection is delayed, its anchor tenant reduces usage, an AI investment cycle cools, or its power, cooling, water and building systems cannot support the next generation of equipment. Projects also require unusually large upfront capital, while permitting, construction and grid upgrades can postpone revenue for years.
The most important diligence question is whether the site will have reliable, affordable power and a creditworthy tenant for the full investment period. Demand forecasts are attractive but highly sensitive: the U.S. Department of Energy and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimate that data centers consumed about 176 TWh in 2023, or 4.4% of U.S. electricity, and could consume 325–580 TWh by 2028, or 6.7–12%. That range itself shows why an apparently compelling development can become overbuilt.
Why data-center investments have an unusual risk profile
Data centers combine infrastructure, technology and real estate. The building is only one part of the asset. Value also depends on substations, transmission capacity, backup generation, fuel supply, fiber routes, cooling plant, water access, security and the servers or networking equipment installed by tenants. Replacing or upgrading those systems can cost as much as constructing the shell.
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The result is an asymmetric outcome: a successful campus can benefit from scarce power and strong demand, but a single failed assumption can impair the whole project. The Federal Reserve’s 2025 analysis illustrates the sensitivity. Depending on alternative project-plan assumptions, U.S. data-center investment in 2027 ranges from $360 billion to $930 billion.
1. Power availability and grid reliability
Electricity is the binding constraint for many projects. A marketing statement that a site is “power-ready” does not prove that a utility has granted firm capacity, completed the required substation work or committed to a delivery date.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s 2025 summer assessment says reliability margins are tightening as generation retires while hyperscale load grows. In its 2024 markets release, FERC warned that rapidly increasing electricity demand from hyperscale customers, combined with base-load retirements and insufficient new dispatchable generation, is not sustainable without corrective action.
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What can go wrong
- The interconnection queue position is conditional, or the required transmission and substation upgrades are years late.
- The contract provides interruptible rather than firm capacity, allowing curtailment during system stress.
- Demand charges, tariff changes or congestion make delivered electricity more expensive than the underwriting assumes.
- On-site generators lack fuel assurance, air permits, maintenance capacity or rights to operate during grid outages.
- Battery storage or renewable contracts reduce emissions exposure but do not provide the same dependable capacity as firm grid service.
Power diligence checklist
- Obtain the executed interconnection agreement, queue position, milestones, upgrade-cost allocation and utility delivery date.
- Confirm whether capacity is firm, interruptible or subject to curtailment, and identify the compensation and notice rules for interruptions.
- Model the tariff, demand charges, transmission costs, taxes and expected escalation under normal and stressed conditions.
- Verify substation transformers, switchgear, backup generation, fuel contracts, storage duration and maintenance responsibilities.
- Test the project with delayed energization, lower available capacity and a higher power price before assigning value to expansion phases.
2. Permitting, regulation and community acceptance
A project can have a willing tenant and still fail to open. Zoning, environmental review, water rights, generator-emissions limits, noise restrictions, heat-discharge rules and renewable-procurement requirements differ by jurisdiction. Local opposition or litigation can add years and substantial carrying costs.
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CBRE’s 2025 investor survey found that regulations and power availability were the leading challenge, cited by 39% of respondents. The same survey reported that 95% planned to increase data-center investment, a sign of strong capital appetite but also of potential competition for permitted sites and utility capacity. The International Energy Agency has warned that limited network capacity, long connection queues and slow permitting are creating bottlenecks; it also cautions that overestimated demand can leave grids with stranded investment.
Questions to resolve before closing
- Does the zoning approval cover the proposed floor area, generator count, operating hours and future expansions?
- Are environmental-impact studies, wetlands reviews, hazardous-material permits and water withdrawals complete?
- Can regulators limit generator runtime, cooling-water withdrawals, noise or waste heat during droughts and heat waves?
- Are tax incentives, renewable requirements or community-benefit agreements conditional on job, investment or operating milestones?
- Are there pending appeals, neighborhood groups, electoral changes or litigation that could reopen approvals?
3. Demand, AI-cycle and overbuilding risk
AI workloads are driving exceptionally large power and capacity forecasts, but the timing and location of demand are uncertain. A customer can postpone a campus, consolidate workloads, use more efficient models, move to a newer region or reduce capital spending after a weak business cycle. Several developers pursuing the same forecast may then deliver capacity faster than customers can absorb it.
The DOE/LBNL range of 325–580 TWh of possible U.S. data-center consumption in 2028 is not a single guaranteed outcome. The Federal Reserve’s $360 billion to $930 billion 2027 investment range similarly reflects different project-plan assumptions rather than a forecast that every project will be built.
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Stress tests for an AI-led project
- Delay occupancy by 12–24 months while interest and operating costs continue.
- Reduce leased power utilization and rack density rather than assuming contracted megawatts become revenue immediately.
- Apply lower rents or shorter lease terms if competing campuses open nearby.
- Model slower AI adoption, more efficient models, customer capex cuts and migration to regions with cheaper or more reliable power.
- Assume one expansion phase is cancelled and calculate the value of the completed facility alone.
S&P Global identifies overbuilding, lower residual values, tenant credit risk and changing regulatory requirements as potential consequences if AI expectations weaken. A prudent valuation therefore depends on current contracted demand and realistic alternative uses, not only on a headline market-growth estimate.
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4. Financing, leverage and construction execution
Data centers are capital intensive before they generate rent. A delay in utility work, transformers, generators, cooling equipment, fiber or commissioning can create a cash-flow gap. Construction inflation and scarce electrical labor can consume contingencies; floating-rate debt can raise costs at the same time that a schedule slips.
Moody’s expects leverage to rise for hyperscale projects planned for 2026–2028. S&P Global also identifies financing conditions and cost inflation as constraints on credit quality. Higher leverage magnifies returns only when occupancy and power delivery arrive on schedule; otherwise it accelerates covenant pressure and refinancing risk.
Financial items to model
- Land, utility deposits, design fees, equipment lead times, labor, taxes and commissioning costs.
- Separate contingencies for civil work, electrical equipment, grid upgrades and technology retrofits.
- Draw schedules that include interest during construction and delayed rent commencement.
- Fixed versus floating debt, hedging costs, covenant headroom and refinancing dates.
- Exit value under lower utilization, higher capitalization rates and obsolete equipment.
Require independent schedule verification and milestone-based funding. A tenant’s letter of intent should not be treated as equivalent to a binding lease with payment obligations.
5. Tenant concentration, lease terms and utilization
Many facilities depend on one hyperscale or wholesale tenant. That concentration can produce excellent visibility when the tenant is financially strong and contract protections are robust, but it leaves the owner exposed to a single credit decision, technology strategy or site plan.
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Contract provisions that matter
- Tenant credit, parent guarantees, security deposits and termination rights.
- Lease term, renewal options, expansion commitments and deadlines for taking contracted power.
- Take-or-pay obligations versus usage-based charges, including remedies for unused capacity.
- Power pass-throughs, inflation escalators, taxes and responsibility for major equipment replacements.
- Assignment rights and the owner’s ability to re-let the space if the anchor leaves.
ARC identifies lease-renewal, tenant-concentration and utilization risk. A tenant may pay for capacity but deploy fewer servers than expected, leaving the owner with lower effective utilization and expensive idle infrastructure. Renewal risk also rises when newer, more efficient alternatives reach the market before the original lease expires.
6. Technology obsolescence and retrofit cost
Data-center buildings do not age like ordinary warehouses. AI servers, networking standards, rack densities and cooling methods change quickly. A well-located facility can lose competitiveness if its electrical topology, floor loading, busways, fiber routes or cooling plant cannot support the next equipment generation.
ARC calls obsolescence a distinctive data-center financing risk, while S&P Global points to declining residual values over time. Reliable power and fiber, efficient cooling and adequate backup reduce vulnerability, but they do not eliminate the need for retrofit capital.
Technical diligence
- Verify floor loading, clear heights, rack layouts and pathways for heavier, denser equipment.
- Review medium-voltage distribution, busway capacity, redundancy topology and room for additional switchgear.
- Map diverse fiber entrances, meet-me rooms and carrier availability.
- Check whether cooling supports liquid-cooled or higher-density racks, and price the electrical and mechanical work required to add it.
- Estimate replacement cycles for UPS systems, generators, chillers, pumps and controls, rather than treating the original fit-out as permanent.
7. Water, cooling, climate and insurance
Cooling reliability is an operating and financial risk. Water-intensive systems can face drought restrictions, permit limits or rising prices; air-based systems can struggle during extreme heat. A site may also face flood, wildfire, storm, smoke or freeze exposure that interrupts operations or damages equipment.
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Schneider Electric’s 2026 study links climate risk to cooling stress, business interruption, physical damage, transition risk and supply-chain exposure. Zurich’s 2026 whitepaper highlights insurance capacity, severe weather, energy and water constraints, resilience and evolving regulation.
What to verify
- Water source, withdrawal and discharge permits, drought curtailment rules and backup supply.
- Design-day temperature, humidity and smoke conditions, plus cooling performance during heat waves.
- Floodplain, wildfire, wind, hail, seismic and extreme-temperature maps for the site and utility routes.
- Redundant cooling loops, pumps, controls and spare parts, with tested failure procedures.
- Property, business-interruption, equipment-breakdown and cyber coverage, including exclusions, deductibles, waiting periods and sublimits.
- Whether insurers will continue offering adequate limits at commercially viable premiums as hazard losses increase.
How to underwrite a prospective investment
- Define the exposure. Identify whether you are buying a direct facility, a development, a REIT interest, a fund position, debt or equity. Each vehicle passes through different combinations of operating, leverage and tenant risk.
- Prove the power path. Trace generation and transmission from the utility agreement to the building’s busways, including dates, upgrade costs, curtailment terms and backup fuel.
- Confirm legal and community feasibility. Review every zoning, environmental, water, emissions, noise and tax condition, as well as appeals and local opposition.
- Validate demand. Distinguish binding leases from letters of intent and market studies. Test occupancy, utilization, rent, expansion timing and tenant credit independently.
- Rebuild the capital budget. Include contingencies, interest during construction, equipment replacement, retrofit work and a delayed-revenue case.
- Assess resilience and insurability. Quantify water, cooling, climate, supply-chain and insurance exposures under severe but plausible events.
- Set decision thresholds. Establish minimum firm power, tenant coverage, contingency, debt-service coverage, insurance limits and residual-value assumptions before approving the investment.
How to compare two data-center opportunities
Compare projects on delivered capability, not headline megawatts or planned square footage.
| Comparison axis | Evidence to request | Why it changes value |
|---|---|---|
| Power date and cost | Executed interconnection agreement, firm capacity, upgrade schedule and full tariff | A delayed or interruptible connection can postpone revenue and reduce utilization |
| Permitting certainty | Final approvals, conditions, appeals and water or emissions permits | Unresolved approvals create schedule and legal risk |
| Tenant quality | Credit analysis, guarantees, lease term and termination provisions | Concentrated cash flow depends on one customer’s ability and willingness to perform |
| Lease economics | Take-or-pay language, power pass-throughs, escalators and expansion commitments | Contracted megawatts do not always equal collected revenue |
| Cooling and water | Cooling design, water permits, drought plan and heat-wave performance | Operating restrictions can reduce capacity or increase cost |
| Technology flexibility | Rack density, electrical topology, fiber diversity and liquid-cooling readiness | Retrofit needs and obsolescence affect residual value |
| Construction execution | Independent schedule, equipment orders, contingencies and contractor capacity | Delays extend negative cash flow and may trigger penalties |
| Leverage and refinancing | Debt terms, hedges, covenants, maturity dates and interest sensitivity | Higher rates or lower occupancy can restrict liquidity |
| Climate and insurance | Hazard maps, policy terms, deductibles, exclusions and insurer capacity | Uninsured downtime can exceed annual operating profit |
| Competitive supply and exit | Nearby permitted capacity, vacancy, power availability and likely buyers | New alternatives can weaken rents, renewals and sale liquidity |
Warning signs that deserve a lower valuation
- Power capacity is described as “planned,” “nearby” or “under study” without an executed utility commitment.
- The investment case relies on a single long-range AI demand forecast and does not show a completed-facility downside case.
- A tenant’s expansion is counted as revenue before it has accepted power or signed binding obligations.
- Construction contingencies are small despite long-lead electrical equipment and uncertain grid work.
- Debt matures before stabilized occupancy, or the model assumes refinancing at today’s terms.
- Cooling depends on a single water source or a design condition milder than recent local extremes.
- Insurance quotes exclude the hazards that are most material to the site, such as flood, wildfire or extended business interruption.
- The facility cannot accommodate denser racks or liquid cooling without major structural and electrical reconstruction.
What investors still need to specify
No universal risk ranking produces a complete recommendation. Country, power market, tax regime and investment vehicle determine the applicable rules, tariffs, financing and investor protections. Direct owners face construction and operating risk; debt investors focus more on collateral, covenants and repayment; fund or REIT investors also bear manager, portfolio and liquidity risk.
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For any structure, the central test remains the same: can the asset deliver reliable, affordable power and useful capacity to a creditworthy customer through changing technology, regulation, climate conditions and financing markets? If that answer depends on several uncontracted milestones occurring on schedule, the uncertainty should be reflected in price, leverage and contingencies rather than treated as upside.
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