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Climate change is projected to make tropical cyclones near Hawaiʻi stronger by late this century, but scientists cannot yet say whether the islands will see more storms overall. A University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa study using thousands of synthetic storms and seven global climate models also finds that the historical difference between El Niño and La Niña could narrow as the climate warms, especially for wind hazard.
The result is a change in risk, not a simple forecast of more landfalls. A storm passing within 300 nautical miles can bring destructive wind, extreme rain, flooding, landslides and high surf even when its center never crosses an island.
What the Hawaiʻi study examined
Researchers used the Columbia Tropical Cyclone Hazard model to generate thousands of physically plausible tropical cyclones from atmospheric and oceanic conditions produced by seven global climate models. They compared historical conditions with mid-century and late-century climates under a high-emissions scenario.
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What changes most clearly
The strongest signal is intensity. Late-century simulations shift toward stronger tropical cyclones near Hawaiʻi. The direction of change in the total number of storms remains uncertain, so the study does not support saying that warming will definitely produce more Hawaiian hurricanes.
El Niño-related differences also change. Historically, El Niño tends to bring stronger and more frequent tropical cyclones near Hawaiʻi than La Niña. In the late-century simulations, the El Niño–La Niña contrast becomes less pronounced, particularly for tropical-cyclone wind hazard. During El Niño, storm tracks sit southwest of the islands relative to La Niña tracks.
Historical, mid-century and late-century risk compared
| Risk dimension | Historical climate | Mid-century simulation | Late-century simulation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm intensity | Observed storms provide the baseline. | The study does not establish a single clear direction in the supplied results. | Projects a shift toward stronger tropical cyclones near Hawaiʻi. |
| Total storm frequency | Varies substantially from year to year. | Direction of change remains unresolved. | Direction of change remains uncertain; stronger storms do not automatically mean more storms. |
| Track location | Tracks vary with circulation patterns, including ENSO. | Model-dependent transition; no single shift is established in the reported findings. | El Niño tracks remain southwest of La Niña tracks, while the ENSO contrast changes. |
| Wind hazard | El Niño historically favors higher wind risk than La Niña. | Not stated as a definitive result. | Wind-hazard differences between El Niño and La Niña become less pronounced, alongside the overall intensity shift. |
| Rainfall and flooding | Near-island storms can cause heavy rain and flooding. | No specific rainfall change is established in the reported results. | Rainfall, flooding and landslide consequences remain important hazards, but no single percentage change is given. |
| Landfall versus passage | Landfall is only one impact pathway. | The model tracks both near-island storms and landfalls. | Risk assessment includes storms within 300 nautical miles, whether or not they make landfall. |
| Confidence and uncertainty | Direct observations of Hawaiian impacts are limited. | Results vary by modeled climate and storm realization. | Intensity signal is clearer than the storm-count signal; rare-event probabilities remain difficult to estimate. |
How El Niño changes the starting conditions
El Niño is part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a coupled ocean–atmosphere pattern. NOAA defines El Niño conditions using Niño-3.4 sea-surface temperatures at least 0.5°C above normal for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods, together with evidence that the atmosphere is responding to the warmer ocean.
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- El Niño occurs, on average, every two to seven years.
- An event typically lasts nine to 12 months.
- Historical Hawaiian storm statistics show a tendency toward stronger and more frequent nearby tropical cyclones during El Niño than during La Niña.
- Relative to La Niña, El Niño tracks are displaced southwest of the islands.
Those relationships are tendencies, not guarantees for an individual season. The climate-model experiment indicates that substantial warming could weaken the historical El Niño–La Niña separation, with the clearest convergence in modeled wind hazard. It does not remove ENSO from the risk picture or establish that every El Niño will produce the same track or intensity.
Why a storm does not need to make landfall to cause damage
Hawaiʻi’s exposure is determined by the storm’s wind field, rainbands, ocean response and interaction with steep terrain—not only by whether the eye crosses land. A nearby cyclone can produce:
- Damaging winds: broad outer bands can affect islands well away from the center.
- Extreme rainfall: slow or moisture-rich systems can overwhelm drainage and trigger flash flooding.
- Landslides: saturated slopes can fail after prolonged rain, blocking roads and damaging utilities.
- High surf and coastal flooding: storm-driven waves and water levels can threaten shorelines without a direct strike.
- Cascading infrastructure impacts: power, communications, airports, roads, water systems and supply chains can be disrupted in combination.
That broader definition is why the study used a 300-nautical-mile analysis radius. As lead author Nicole Murray put it, “This research addresses a hazard that is rare in Hawai‘i but can have enormous consequences when it occurs.” She also noted that storms “do not need to make a conventional landfall to disrupt communities, damage infrastructure and create dangerous flooding and wind impacts.”
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What the 2014 season showed
A NOAA Institutional Repository summary of a 2015 study recorded three hurricanes approaching the Hawaiian Islands in 2014, the third-largest number since 1949. That work identified both warming-related changes in storm tracks and ENSO variability as relevant influences.
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The 2014 count is historical context, not evidence that climate change has established a permanent upward trend in Hawaiian storm numbers. The newer modeling result likewise separates a clearer late-century intensity signal from an unresolved change in total frequency.
What remains uncertain
- How many storms will occur: the modeled direction of change in total counts is not settled.
- Exact local impacts: Hawaiʻi has relatively few direct-impact observations, making probabilities for rare events difficult to estimate.
- Timing of changes: the study compares historical, mid-century and late-century climates but does not provide a single calendar year when a threshold will be crossed.
- Emissions pathway: the late-century results come from a high-emissions experiment and should be read as a substantial-warming scenario, not a guaranteed future.
- Season-by-season outcomes: ENSO affects the background environment, but individual storms can depart from the average pattern.
What this means for preparedness
Emergency planning should use proximity and hazards—not landfall labels—as the trigger for action. Residents, businesses and public agencies should monitor official forecasts for wind, rainfall, surf and flooding; check whether evacuation routes, drainage systems and communications plans remain usable; and account for secondary disruptions such as power loss, blocked roads and supply delays.
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For infrastructure planning, the study points to a need to test systems against stronger nearby cyclones even if the eventual number of storms is unchanged. For seasonal outlooks, ENSO remains useful background information, but a forecast of El Niño or La Niña cannot by itself determine whether a particular Hawaiian community will be struck.
Christina Karamperidou, a study co-author and atmospheric sciences professor at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa’s SOEST, said, “The 2026 hurricane season has provided a powerful reminder of this.” The practical lesson is consistent with the modeling: prepare for the full range of effects from a nearby tropical cyclone, not only for a direct landfall.
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