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NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) favors a warmer-than-average winter across much of the northern and eastern United States for December 2026 through February 2027. Wetter-than-average conditions are favored from the Southwest across the southern tier and along the East Coast, while drought risk increases in parts of the northern Rockies and inland Pacific Northwest. El Niño is present and strengthening, but these maps show probabilities—not a guarantee of any particular storm or temperature on a specific day.
How strong is the El Niño signal?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Weather Service (NWS) have issued an El Niño Advisory. Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures are above average, and atmospheric circulation anomalies are consistent with El Niño.
The NWS says there is greater than a 90% chance that El Niño reaches very strong status during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27. The CPC estimates a 54% chance of reaching its historic-strength threshold in September–November, 83% in October–December and 70% in November–January. That threshold is a three-month relative oceanic Niño index (RONI) value of at least +2.5°C, compared with El Niño events observed since 1950.
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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteA strong event raises the odds of a recognizable winter pattern, but it does not determine every month or storm. Other climate patterns—including the Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation and Madden-Julian Oscillation—plus ordinary weather variability can reinforce or disrupt the El Niño response.
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What NOAA favors by region
| Region | Temperature outlook | Precipitation outlook | Important qualification |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern California and Pacific Northwest | Above average favored | Not uniformly wetter; dry signals are strongest farther inland | Drought development or worsening is favored in parts of the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington. |
| Midwest, Mississippi Valley and Upper Mississippi Valley | Above average favored; Upper Mississippi Valley probabilities are about 40–60% | Equal chances in the Upper Mississippi Valley | Mixed precipitation signals mean a warmer winter is more certain than a wetter or drier one locally. |
| Southwest through the southern tier and Southeast | Above average in much of the region; parts of the Southeast, including Florida, are closer to near normal | Wetter than average favored | The wet signal extends from the Southwest across the southern states. |
| East Coast | Above average favored across much of the East | Wetter than average favored | A wet seasonal average does not specify when storms occur. |
| Alaska, Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands | Above average favored | Not specified as a single uniform signal in the temperature outlook | Local conditions can differ substantially within each area. |
| Hawaii and much of the Southwest | Equal chances of below-, near- or above-average seasonal temperatures | Southwestern areas generally have a wetter signal | “Equal chances” means no category has a favored probability on the seasonal map. |
Will winter be warmer or colder than normal?
The broadest temperature message is warmth. Above-average seasonal temperatures are favored across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley, much of the East, Alaska, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Near-normal temperatures are more likely in parts of the Southeast. Hawaii and much of the Southwest have equal chances among the three temperature categories.
A seasonal category describes the average over December, January and February. It does not mean every cold front will be weak or that a short cold spell is impossible. A location can record several freezes and still finish the season warmer than its long-term average.
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Where is it expected to be wetter or drier?
NOAA favors wetter-than-average precipitation from the Southwest across the southern tier to the Southeast and along the East Coast. This is a seasonal accumulation signal, so it can result from a few major storms rather than steady rain every week.
The clearest dry-side concern is drought development or worsening in parts of the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington. Boundaries are not city lines: nearby areas can have different outcomes, and local soil moisture, snowpack and water use also affect drought conditions.
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Does El Niño mean more snow?
Not automatically. A warmer seasonal average can reduce snow chances at lower elevations, while a wetter pattern can still produce major snow when cold air is present. Elevation, storm track and short-lived atmospheric patterns determine whether precipitation falls as snow, rain or mixed precipitation.
NOAA’s seasonal guidance cannot predict the frequency, number or intensity of individual snowstorms. Its local discussion states: “Snowstorms will occur at times this winter. However, the frequency, number, and intensity of these events cannot be predicted on a seasonal timescale.” Use a shorter-range NWS forecast for a specific storm’s timing, track, snowfall amount and hazards.
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How to read the outlook without overinterpreting it
- Read the category first. “Above,” “near” or “below” average is a probability ranking, not a promised outcome.
- Check whether the map says equal chances. That wording indicates that below-, near- and above-average outcomes are each plausible and none is favored.
- Separate temperature from precipitation. The Upper Mississippi Valley illustrates why: warmth is favored at roughly 40–60%, while precipitation remains at equal chances.
- Look for the time scale. The December–February outlook cannot identify a particular week, storm or cold snap.
- Update for short-range decisions. For travel, school closures, flooding or snow removal, rely on current NWS forecasts and advisories as the event approaches.
Why this winter may not look “typically” El Niño
El Niño shifts the odds by changing tropical Pacific heating and the atmospheric circulation connected to it. The U.S. response varies from one event to another. NOAA therefore describes seasonal climate outlooks as “odds,” “chances” or “probabilities,” not guarantees. The Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Madden-Julian Oscillation and random weather can alter the jet stream, storm paths and temperatures for weeks at a time.
For winter 2026–27, the most defensible expectation is a warmer-than-average seasonal background across much of the northern and eastern United States, a wetter southern tier and East Coast, and elevated drought risk in parts of the northern interior West. Whether a particular community gets a blizzard, flood or dry month will be decided by shorter-term weather patterns that the seasonal map cannot resolve.
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