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Yes—U.S. small-scale solar generation has grown far more than fourfold. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that output from small-scale or rooftop photovoltaic systems increased from 18,812 gigawatt-hours (GWh) to 92,979 GWh over the decade covered by its latest analysis. That is about 4.94 times as much generation, so “quadrupled” is a rounded description; “nearly quintupled” is mathematically closer.
The figures cover distributed photovoltaic systems smaller than 1 megawatt (MW), not large utility-scale solar farms. They include rooftop arrays and other small installations connected through residential, commercial and other distributed systems.
How much has U.S. small-scale solar grown?
EIA’s October 16, 2026, Today in Energy analysis gives the central comparison:
| Measure | Earlier figure | Latest figure | What it shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. small-scale or rooftop PV generation | 18,812 GWh | 92,979 GWh | Approximately 4.94 times the earlier output |
| Residential-sector estimated small-scale PV generation | 4,947 thousand MWh in 2014 | 57,547 thousand MWh in 2024 | More than eleven times the 2014 residential estimate |
| Residential-sector estimated small-scale PV generation | 49,273 thousand MWh in 2023 | 57,547 thousand MWh in 2024 | Increase of 8,274 thousand MWh between those releases |
The first row is the broad national small-scale series cited by EIA. The residential figures are a separate sector estimate in EIA’s 2025 release covering final 2024 data, so they should not be substituted for the total distributed-PV series.
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What counts as “small-scale” solar?
For this EIA series, small-scale photovoltaic generation comes from systems with less than 1 MW of capacity. That threshold captures most residential rooftop systems and many small commercial, community and other distributed installations. It excludes utility-scale plants that produce electricity at much larger centralized facilities.
“Rooftop” is therefore a useful shorthand, but it is not a complete technical definition. A qualifying system can be located on a roof, on another customer property or in another distributed setting, provided it falls below the 1-MW threshold used in the EIA data.
Which states produce the most small-scale solar power?
California, Arizona, Texas and Florida lead the nation in total estimated small-scale solar generation. New York ranks fifth, despite having less intense solar resources than the leading Sun Belt states.
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| State or group | Position or role | Reason highlighted by EIA’s analysis |
|---|---|---|
| California | Top tier | Strong solar resource combined with extensive distributed capacity |
| Arizona | Top tier | Abundant sunlight supports high annual production |
| Texas | Top tier | Large potential solar resource and substantial capacity growth |
| Florida | Top tier | High solar availability and expanding distributed installations |
| New York | Fifth | Capacity additions, improving technology and state incentives offset less favorable solar conditions |
The ranking demonstrates why sunlight alone does not determine distributed generation. Installed capacity, equipment performance, financing and state policy can all change how much electricity small systems produce. New York’s position is an example of deployment and policy compensating for a weaker solar resource than states farther south and west.
Are the EIA numbers measured or estimated?
For most small systems, the figures are estimates rather than direct meter readings collected from every installation. EIA combines information from its electric-utility surveys, net-metering reports and related distributed-generation data. It applies formulas and adjustments described in its technical documentation and backdates the historical series to 2014.
The Electric Power Annual explains that monthly small-scale PV generation is estimated for most systems. EIA directly collects generation data for certain third-party-owned installations, but that is not the same as having a production meter reading for every residential array.
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- Net-metered systems: Customer generation is inferred using utility-reported information and EIA estimation methods.
- Non-net-metered systems: EIA incorporates available distributed-PV data and applies adjustments to estimate output.
- Third-party-owned systems: Some installations have generation collected directly, according to EIA’s methodology.
Because of this method, 92,979 GWh should be read as EIA’s best national estimate for the defined class of systems, not as a sum of individually reported meter readings.
Why has distributed solar expanded so quickly?
The decade-long increase reflects several reinforcing changes:
- More installed capacity: Additional rooftop and other distributed systems create more potential generation.
- Better technology: Improvements in photovoltaic modules and system components allow newer installations to produce more electricity from available space and sunlight.
- State incentives: Programs that reduce upfront costs or improve project economics can accelerate adoption. EIA specifically identifies policy support as part of the explanation for New York’s high ranking.
- Broader deployment: Growth is no longer limited to the states with the strongest solar resources; distributed systems have expanded across multiple regions.
These factors affect generation differently from utility-scale construction. A state can rank highly because it has exceptional sunlight, a large installed base, strong incentives, or a combination of all three.
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What the decade-long trend means for readers
The growth in small-scale generation shows that distributed solar has become a significant part of the U.S. electricity picture. It also shows why national and state comparisons need consistent definitions. A statistic for systems below 1 MW cannot be compared directly with a utility-scale statistic unless the capacity threshold and estimation method match.
For homeowners or organizations evaluating a small photovoltaic system, the national trend is context rather than a promise of identical output. Actual production depends on location, orientation, shading, system size, equipment and local rules. EIA’s national estimates establish the scale of the market and its growth, but they do not predict the output of an individual installation.
The bottom line on “quadrupled”
U.S. small-scale solar generation did at least quadruple over the decade in EIA’s latest analysis—and, using the reported endpoints, it came close to five times the earlier level. The most important qualification is that the series covers photovoltaic systems under 1 MW and relies largely on modeled and reported data assembled by EIA, not universal direct metering.
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