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Prediction markets are moving into mainstream brokerage and cryptocurrency apps, making it possible to trade yes-or-no contracts on future events. Coinbase offers these markets through Coinbase Financial Markets with contracts operated by Kalshi, while Robinhood’s Prediction Markets Hub routes contracts through several venues. However, no official live listing reviewed for this article confirms a contract asking whether Coinbase, Robinhood or Marathon will hit a specific corporate target. That three-company proposition remains a near-term possibility, not an established market.
What traders would actually be buying
An event contract pays according to the outcome of a defined future event. A market might ask whether an index reaches a level, whether a policy decision occurs, or whether a company hits a stated target by a specified date. Traders buy “yes” or “no” positions, and the price reflects the market’s current implied probability rather than fixed bookmaker odds.
Robinhood’s contract pages say a correct prediction pays $1 for every contract owned. A contract trading at 42 cents therefore represents a market-implied probability of roughly 42 percent before fees and other trading costs, although the price can move as participants update their views. A losing position pays nothing.
The wording and settlement rules matter as much as the headline. Each market defines its expiry, the data source used to determine the outcome, and when settlement occurs. Cryptocurrency contracts can use a benchmark reference rate rather than a momentary quote from one exchange. A trader who assumes the wrong price source or cutoff time can lose despite correctly anticipating the broader direction.
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Where prediction markets are available
| Interface or venue | What is established | Settlement information |
|---|---|---|
| Coinbase | Prediction markets are offered through Coinbase Financial Markets and operated by Kalshi. | Contract-specific rules define the outcome, reference data and timing. |
| Robinhood Prediction Markets Hub | The hub lists markets routed through KalshiEX, ForecastEX, Rothera Exchange and Clearing, or NADX. | Robinhood says a correct contract pays $1 per contract; individual rules govern settlement. |
| Rothera Exchange and Clearing | Robinhood’s Q2 2026 investor disclosure describes Rothera as a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse launched in June through Robinhood’s joint venture. | Rothera is one of the venues identified for Robinhood event-contract routing. |
The exchange named in an app is not always the same company that provides the user interface. Routing, clearing and market-making arrangements can change. Axios reported that Robinhood also signed a multiyear deal to route event-contract volume through Crypto.com’s OG.com derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, illustrating how quickly the infrastructure is evolving.
Could there be contracts on Coinbase, Robinhood and Marathon targets?
In principle, a target-style contract could be written as a precise yes-or-no question, such as whether a company’s share price, revenue measure or another disclosed metric reaches a stated level by a deadline. The contract would need an unambiguous reference source, a time zone, a measurement window and a rule for unusual events such as trading halts, restatements or a change in the company’s capital structure.
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The available official pages and announcements do not document a live contract covering named targets for all three companies in the headline. They establish that Coinbase and Robinhood now expose event-contract infrastructure and that the platforms can support propositions tied to measurable outcomes. They do not prove that a Coinbase-target, Robinhood-target and Marathon-target trio is currently tradable.
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That distinction is important. A news headline can describe where the market is heading without implying that a particular contract is already listed, liquid or available to every customer. Before trading, search the relevant hub for the exact company name and read the contract rules rather than relying on a social-media description or a generic category label.
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How to check a contract before placing an order
- Confirm access. Open the prediction-market section in the brokerage or exchange interface and check whether event contracts are enabled for your account and location.
- Read the full question. Identify the target, deadline, unit of measurement and whether the event requires a close, an intraday print or another condition.
- Identify the settlement source. Note the named index, exchange, government release or company filing that determines the result. For crypto markets, check whether a reference rate is used.
- Check the expiry and settlement date. A market can stop accepting trades before the official result is published, and settlement may occur later.
- Review price, liquidity and fees. The displayed price is a market-set probability, not a guaranteed forecast. Wide spreads or thin order books can make it costly to enter or exit.
- Verify geographic eligibility and disclosures. Availability can depend on state, country, account type and changing regulatory guidance.
Who runs the growing market infrastructure?
Kalshi and Coinbase
Coinbase says its prediction markets are offered through Coinbase Financial Markets and operated by Kalshi. Coinbase is therefore the customer-facing access point in this arrangement, while Kalshi supplies the event-contract market operation identified in Coinbase’s explanation.
Robinhood’s multi-venue model
Robinhood’s public hub identifies KalshiEX, ForecastEX, Rothera Exchange and Clearing, and NADX as venues for event contracts. The model gives Robinhood more than one source of listed markets and liquidity, but it also means that the governing rules can differ from one contract or venue to another.
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Rothera’s reported scale
Robinhood’s Q2 2026 investor disclosure says Rothera launched in June as a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse and had handled more than 3.5 billion contracts to date. That figure is the company’s reported cumulative volume, not a guarantee that any individual market will have deep liquidity.
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Why the numbers are attracting attention
The commercial growth is already material. The Block reported that Robinhood’s event-contract revenue reached $156 million in the second quarter of 2026, exceeding the company’s $100 million in crypto-trading revenue for that period.
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The Block also reported a Bernstein model estimating about $150 million in second-quarter prediction-market revenue and citing a $160 price target for Robinhood. Bernstein’s broader thesis, as reported by The Block, put the opportunity across prediction markets, perpetual futures, tokenized equities and compute-linked markets at more than $70 billion. These are reported company figures and analyst estimates, not independent forecasts of a specific Coinbase, Robinhood or Marathon contract.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Are these contracts legal?
Legality and availability remain jurisdiction-specific. Federal and state authorities continue to debate how far the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s authority extends and where state gaming rules apply. Axios reported CFTC chair Michael Selig saying that clear rules and a clear understanding that the CFTC supports lawful innovation are needed. Later Axios coverage described Robinhood’s expansion as occurring amid continuing uncertainty over federal CFTC authority versus state regulation.
A CFTC license for a venue does not automatically make every contract available in every state or country. Platforms can restrict products, change eligibility or remove markets as interpretations and enforcement priorities develop. Check the disclosures and account notices shown at the time of trading, and do not assume that access from one jurisdiction transfers to another.
Main risks for a target-style contract
- Definition risk: A company can appear to hit a target while failing the contract’s precise close, index or measurement rule.
- Liquidity risk: A correct view may still be difficult to monetize if few traders are willing to take the other side.
- Timing risk: Expiry, publication and settlement can occur at different times.
- Regulatory risk: Access and permitted contract types can change with federal or state decisions.
- Concentration risk: A trader may already have substantial exposure through shares, options or employment tied to the same company.
What to expect next
The immediate development is broader distribution: event contracts are appearing inside familiar financial apps instead of remaining confined to specialist venues. If demand continues, exchanges may list more corporate, economic and market-level questions, including target-style propositions. Whether the specific Coinbase, Robinhood and Marathon contracts appear—and whether they attract enough volume to trade efficiently—must be verified from a live listing and its settlement rules.
For now, the defensible conclusion is that the plumbing for these bets is being built and scaled, while the exact three-company target market remains unconfirmed.
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