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Yes, the United States is pursuing AI competitiveness while remaining exposed to China-linked supply chains—but the evidence does not show that every U.S. AI company depends on Chinese suppliers, or quantify a Chinese-company share of U.S. frontier AI hardware. The clearest documented exposures are in selected critical minerals, battery production and processing. Separately, a Federal Reserve measure shows that trade in selected data-center-related goods has surged, but it does not identify a single country as the source of all those goods.
What does it mean for the U.S. to compete with China in AI?
AI competitiveness is not one leaderboard. A country can be strong in research but face constraints in deployment, infrastructure, talent, investment or influence over global standards. The U.S. Government Accountability Office’s May 2026 framework groups the relevant factors into four pillars: Science & Technology, Human Capital, Governance and Economy. Its examples include research and development, workforce, laws and policies, investment and financing, and computing infrastructure.
That framing matters because the answer depends on what “beat China” means: leading in research, deploying AI widely, attracting talent, building infrastructure or shaping standards. GAO cautions that the factors’ importance varies with the policy question. Its framework also calls for weighing risks such as job dislocation and increased energy consumption, not just capability or investment.
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Building AI infrastructure means moving servers, processing units and related parts through international supply chains. In a February 13, 2026 note, the Federal Reserve Board counted more than $272 billion in global trade in its selected AI-related product categories during the first half of 2025—65% more than in the first half of 2024.
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This is a customs-code proxy, not the value of the AI industry, a measure of U.S.–China bilateral trade or a complete inventory of AI inputs. The Federal Reserve selected three HS-6 categories: 8471.50, processing units such as NVIDIA DGX servers; 8471.80, other data-processing units such as HGX server baseboards; and 8473.30, parts and accessories such as graphics cards. The categories can include non-AI goods and omit AI-related goods classified elsewhere.
The same analysis says the U.S. and China drove growth in AI-related imports in 2024, with U.S. imports accelerating in 2025. Chinese imports fell in the second quarter of 2025 amid geopolitical tensions and restrictions. Mexico’s imports also grew from a low base; a significant portion of its AI-related imports came from Taiwan. These patterns show a geographically distributed hardware trade, not that every product or company in it has a Chinese supplier.
Where China-linked supply-chain exposure is clearest
Critical minerals used in technology
GAO’s July 22, 2026 report on substitution and recycling says U.S. batteries and semiconductors rely heavily on imported minerals including lithium, gallium and germanium. It reports that China owns 99% of worldwide gallium production. Gallium is used in semiconductors, but that figure is about global production of one mineral; it is not a measure of China’s share of U.S. semiconductor manufacturing or AI hardware.
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The scale of import reliance extends beyond any single material. A January 14, 2026 White House proclamation states that, as of 2024, the U.S. was 100% net-import reliant for 12 critical minerals and at least 50% net-import reliant for 29 more. These figures describe net-import reliance, not the proportion of AI products made in China.
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Batteries and battery materials
China’s position is also well documented across the battery chain, from mining and processing raw materials to making components and finished batteries. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission’s November 2024 report says six of the world’s ten largest battery producers were based in China and accounted for 77% of global battery production capacity in 2022, compared with 6% for the U.S. The same report says China accounted for over 70% of U.S. lithium-ion battery imports by value in 2023. Those are historical capacity and import figures, not current shares or measures of AI-specific battery use.
Why processing can matter as much as mining
Domestic extraction alone does not ensure a domestic supply chain. The January 2026 White House proclamation says the U.S. is a major producer of mined, unprocessed rare-earth oxides, but limited domestic processing can mean material is exported for refining and then reimported. It also describes U.S. reliance on imported permanent magnets. A mine, a refinery, a component plant and a finished-product factory are separate stages, and dependence can persist at any one of them.
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What these findings do—and do not—establish
Taken together, the sources document selected material, battery and processing vulnerabilities alongside a rapidly expanding trade in certain hardware categories. They do not map the current suppliers of individual U.S. AI companies, quantify how much of named U.S. data-center or chip production depends on Chinese companies, or establish one overall dependency percentage. The Federal Reserve’s customs categories aggregate trade across countries; GAO’s mineral analysis and the Commission’s battery figures cover different parts of the supply chain.
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There is also a distinct concern about access to AI models. In a September 2026 announcement of a joint advisory, the NSA, FBI and CISA alleged that China-based companies used distillation campaigns against U.S. frontier AI models. The agencies characterized distillation as a legitimate research technique while alleging misuse in the campaigns they described. That is an allegation about acquiring or replicating model capabilities—not evidence of physical supply-chain dependence.
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How quickly can the U.S. reduce these exposures?
Battery recycling and substitutes
GAO’s July 2026 minerals report describes battery-recycling technology as mature, but says the U.S. lacks sufficient collection and recycling infrastructure and often exports battery-recycling material for processing. It says recycling and some battery-substitution approaches could contribute to reducing dependence in roughly two to three years, subject to infrastructure and further development. That is a potential contribution, not a promise that broad import reliance will end on that schedule.
For stationary grid storage, lithium iron phosphate batteries may reduce reliance on cobalt, manganese and nickel. Their lower energy density makes them less suitable for some other uses, including long-haul electric vehicles. Lithium-free batteries are not yet commercially mature, so a substitute that fits one application does not automatically replace materials across the economy.
Semiconductor materials and the infrastructure bottleneck
For semiconductors, GAO says recycling and material substitution are likely years away from maturity. Potential substitutes for minerals such as gallium and indium do not yet perform as well under relevant conditions. Recovering materials from electronic waste is difficult because the amounts can be small and the materials mixed or bonded together.
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