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The Moon’s radius is decreasing by an estimated 6–11 centimeters per million years—about 0.1 micrometers (0.0001 millimeters) per year if the long-term average has remained constant. That is imperceptibly slow on a human timescale, but the contraction still compresses the lunar crust, activates faults and can produce shallow moonquakes.
How fast is the Moon shrinking?
The best current geological estimate is a loss of 6–11 centimeters of radius per million years. Expressed annually, that is approximately 0.1 micrometers per year, or 0.0001 millimeters. The figure is not a year-by-year measurement from a continuously shrinking ruler. It is an average inferred from the ages and dimensions of contractional landforms mapped on the Moon.
NASA gives a complementary cumulative perspective: the Moon’s diameter has decreased by about 50 meters (150 feet) over the last several hundred million years. Radius and diameter are different measurements, and the two figures describe different time intervals, so they should not be divided or compared without first aligning those units and periods.
| Measurement | Reported value | What it describes | Important qualification |
|---|---|---|---|
| Radius-loss estimate | 6–11 cm per million years | Long-term contraction rate | Inferred from mapped faults and their ages; assumes the average rate stayed constant |
| Annual equivalent | About 0.1 µm per year | Scale of the same radius estimate | A conversion of the geological average, not a direct annual observation |
| Cumulative diameter change | About 50 m (150 ft) | Total shrinkage over several hundred million years | NASA’s public summary; it measures diameter, not radius |
Is the Moon getting smaller right now?
The evidence indicates that lunar contraction is probably still occurring, but scientists cannot yet replace the geological estimate with a precise modern measurement of the Moon’s radius. The rate may have varied through lunar history as the interior cooled, so treating 6–11 cm per million years as a constant is an assumption that makes the estimate usable rather than a demonstrated present-day speed.
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What is established is that the Moon has young contractional features and recent seismic activity. Those observations show that cooling-related deformation is not confined to the distant past.
What makes the Moon shrink?
Cooling reduces the interior’s volume
The Moon formed nearly 4.5 billion years ago. As its interior loses heat, the material inside contracts. The solid outer crust is brittle, so it cannot smoothly follow every change in volume. Instead, it is compressed, fractures and shifts in blocks.
Thrust faults shorten the crust
On a shrinking world, one crustal block can be pushed up and over another along a thrust fault. The resulting scarps and wrinkle ridges are surface evidence of shortening. These faults are the Moon’s visible response to the interior’s gradual loss of volume.
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Earth’s tides add stress
Earth’s gravity continually raises tides in the Moon. That tidal stress does not supply the primary heat-loss-driven contraction, but it can help orient faults or push an already stressed fault toward failure. The timing of some recorded quakes is consistent with that additional trigger.
What observations reveal the contraction?
Thousands of young fault scarps
Images from NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and its camera have mapped thousands of young thrust-fault scarps. A 2019 NASA survey examined more than 12,000 images and identified young wrinkle ridges in Mare Frigoris. Some features formed within the last billion years; others may be no older than about 40 million years. Their young ages matter because they place contractional movement within relatively recent lunar history.
Apollo seismometers recorded shallow quakes
Four Apollo seismometers operated from 1969 through 1977 and recorded 28 shallow moonquakes. A later reanalysis located 8 of those 28 events within 30 kilometers of mapped faults. Six of those eight occurred near lunar apogee, when the Moon is farthest from Earth and the changing tidal stress associated with its orbit is greatest.
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In 10,000 simulations, the chance of obtaining that degree of coincidence randomly was below 4 percent. That result supports a relationship between shallow quakes and fault activity, while not proving that every event had the same cause.
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Can a shrinking Moon cause moonquakes?
Yes. Contraction loads the crust until existing thrust faults slip or new faults form. NASA describes shallow moonquakes reaching approximately magnitude 5 to 5.5; some can last more than 10 minutes because the dry, fractured lunar crust transmits seismic energy differently from Earth’s crust.
“The Moon is still quaking and shaking from its own internal processes,” said Nathan Williams of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
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The seismic evidence and young scarps reinforce each other: the landforms show where shortening has occurred, while the Apollo records show that faults in or near those structures can still move.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why the south polar region matters for exploration
Future lunar landing sites and outposts cannot be selected solely by mapping water ice, sunlight or terrain. NASA modeling indicates that shallow quakes in the south-polar region could produce strong ground shaking tens of kilometers from a fault scarp. Some slopes, including areas of interest for ice deposits, may also be vulnerable to landslides.
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“Our modeling suggests that shallow moonquakes capable of producing strong ground shaking in the south polar region are possible from slip events on existing faults or the formation of new thrust faults,” said Tom Watters of the Smithsonian Institution.
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Mission planners therefore need seismic-monitoring and slope-stability data alongside resource maps. A site that is attractive for communications, power or ice access may still carry geological hazards that change during an outpost’s operating life.
What the estimate does—and does not—tell us
- It gives the best available long-term average for radial contraction: 6–11 centimeters per million years.
- It does not mean the Moon visibly loses 0.1 micrometers on every calendar year; the annual figure is a conversion of an averaged geological rate.
- It does not predict the date or magnitude of a particular moonquake.
- It does show that cooling, crustal shortening and seismic activity are linked over geologically recent time.
Thomas Watters of the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum summarized the significance of the fault study this way: “Our analysis gives the first evidence that these faults are still active and likely producing moonquakes today as the Moon continues to gradually cool and shrink.”
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