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Yes—according to the Global Carbon Project’s preliminary estimate, the global land carbon sink returned to pre-El Niño levels in 2025 after unusually weak years associated with the 2023–2024 El Niño. That is an estimate of one year’s net carbon uptake, not proof that the land’s long-term ability to absorb carbon has permanently recovered.
What “the land’s ability to store carbon” means
The headline describes the land carbon sink in accessible terms. In the Global Carbon Budget, that sink is the annual net uptake of CO₂ by land, excluding land-use change. It is a flow measured over a period—not a fixed storage capacity and not a measurement of every forest, soil or ecosystem.
Plants and soils take up and release carbon through interacting natural processes. The resulting global figure can change from year to year as temperatures, rainfall, circulation patterns and fires change. The land sink is one of Earth’s natural carbon sinks; the ocean is another.
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The Global Carbon Project’s 2025 budget estimates that the land sink averaged 2.4 ± 0.8 billion tonnes of carbon (GtC) per year over 2015–2024. Within that decade, the estimated sink was 3.1 ± 1.0 GtC per year in 2022, then 1.9 ± 0.8 GtC per year in 2024. The project reports the 2024 estimate as 37% below the strong 2022 sink.
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The project attributes the major 2024 reduction as likely driven by El Niño conditions. Tropical land uptake fell from 2.8 GtC in 2022 to 1.0 GtC in 2024, according to the budget. Intense wildfires in Canada, Bolivia and Brazil were also a significant CO₂ source. These figures describe a global total: they do not mean every region or ecosystem experienced the same change.
Why reports describe the 2025 recovery differently
The Global Carbon Project’s FAQ says: “After a substantially weaker land sink in 2024 due to the 2023-2024 El Niño conditions, the preliminary estimate for 2025 suggests a full recovery of the sink to pre-El Niño levels.” The key word is preliminary: this is the project’s estimate for the calendar year 2025, not a final measurement or evidence that the longer-term trend has turned around.
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A separate low-latency study by Ke and colleagues examined July 2024 through June 2025, rather than the calendar year. Its average of bottom-up and top-down estimates put the net land sink at 1.06 ± 0.40 GtC per year. The authors found that this was a recovery from the El Niño low, but remained 0.49 GtC per year below their mean for the matching July-to-June periods from 2015 to 2022.
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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteThose descriptions are not necessarily contradictory. They cover different periods and use different data streams, models and processing. The low-latency study says its estimates do not include the Replaced Sinks and Sources (RSS) correction introduced in the 2025 budget. Its absolute figures therefore are not directly equivalent to RSS-corrected Global Carbon Budget values. A calendar-year preliminary estimate and a July-to-June model-based estimate should not be treated as like-for-like measurements.
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What a rebound does—and does not—say about climate change
A strong year can follow a weak one because natural variability changes the balance of uptake and release. It does not establish that warming, drought, fire or other climate pressures on ecosystems have ended. The Global Carbon Budget reports that the land sink has been relatively stagnant since 2000, as climate variability and climate change have offset growth associated with rising atmospheric CO₂.
The project estimates that the land sink averaged 25% smaller during 2015–2024 than it would have been without climate change and climate variability. This is a counterfactual comparison, not a claim that uptake fell by 25% over those years. The FAQ also notes that land and ocean sinks together still absorb around half of human CO₂ emissions, while climate change and variability make their future contribution less certain.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read future land-sink headlines
When two reports appear to disagree, check the period and what kind of estimate each one reports. A preliminary projection, a revised annual budget, a model ensemble and an atmospheric inversion may draw on different information and processing. Also check the sink definition—especially whether land-use change is included—and whether an uncertainty interval or correction such as RSS is applied.
For this rebound, the most accurate reading is that the Global Carbon Project’s preliminary calendar-year estimate places the 2025 sink back at pre-El Niño levels, while a separate July-to-June analysis finds recovery from the low but remains below its own historical comparison average. Neither finding alone establishes a lasting reversal in the land sink’s longer-term stagnation.
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