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EU governments are divided over the size and priorities of the bloc’s next seven-year budget, the 2028–2034 multiannual financial framework (MFF). On 13 October 2026, the Irish Council Presidency had proposed a €1.62 trillion package, while the European Parliament’s negotiating position called for €1.78 trillion in constant 2025 prices. Neither figure is an agreed budget. With unanimity required among member states and Parliament’s consent also needed, leaders are trying to build a political agreement before elections and the remaining legislative work tighten the timetable.
Why the next EU budget is contentious
The MFF sets a seven-year ceiling and framework for EU spending; it is not the bloc’s annual budget. The current negotiation concerns the framework that would begin in 2028, not the 2027 annual budget. Its central dispute is how to balance established spending, especially agriculture and cohesion policy, against newer priorities such as defence, competitiveness, innovation, and the green and digital transitions.
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The Associated Press reported on 13 October 2026 that cohesion and farm spending together account for about two-thirds of the budget. Governments resisting cuts to those areas face pressure from countries seeking to limit the overall package. Without higher national contributions or new revenue, governments may have to reduce established programmes or scale back ambitions in newer fields.
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The European Parliament wants sufficient, clearly protected funding for agriculture, fisheries, cohesion policy and the European Social Fund, alongside more investment in newer priorities. It also objects to the Commission’s proposed national and regional plan structure, arguing that it could weaken transparency, parliamentary scrutiny and established EU policies. These are Parliament’s stated concerns, not a settled finding about how the proposed system would work.
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What the competing budget figures mean
Headline totals need care: they use different price bases and treat repayment of NextGenerationEU borrowing differently. They are proposals from separate institutions, not settled amounts.
| Figure | What it represents | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| €1.62 trillion | Irish Council Presidency proposal reported by the Associated Press on 13 October 2026 | A live negotiating proposal, not an agreed Council figure. AP described it as 30% above the current seven-year package and 8% below the Commission proposal, but those comparisons should not be treated as directly comparable without matching their price basis and debt treatment. |
| €1.78 trillion in constant 2025 prices; €2.01 trillion in current prices | European Parliament’s 2026 negotiating position | Parliament also places €149.3 billion for NextGenerationEU debt repayment above the main MFF ceilings. It characterizes its position as €175 billion above the Commission proposal in 2025 prices. |
| €1.76 trillion in 2025 prices | European Commission proposal, as summarized by the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS) | EPRS says this total includes €149.3 billion for NextGenerationEU debt repayment, a different framing from Parliament’s treatment of repayment. |
These figures cannot be compared by subtracting one headline from another alone: the price basis and whether debt repayment sits inside or outside the MFF ceilings matter. The European Parliament adopted its interim negotiating report on 28 April 2026 by 370 votes to 201, with 84 abstentions.
Who pays, and why new revenue is disputed
The EU budget is financed chiefly by member-state contributions based on gross national income, alongside customs duties, a VAT-based resource and a contribution based on non-recycled plastic packaging. The Commission has proposed additional own resources related to emissions trading, the carbon border adjustment mechanism, non-recycled e-waste, tobacco excise duties and a contribution from large companies. Parliament estimates the proposed sources could raise €60 billion annually; that is an estimate, not enacted or guaranteed revenue.
Creating new own resources has a separate political hurdle: the decision requires unanimity among member states and subsequent national ratification. That makes new revenue a potential way to ease the trade-off between contributions and spending, but not an automatic solution.
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Affordability is already a point of conflict. Sweden’s EU Affairs Minister Jessica Rosencrantz called the Irish proposal “wildly unaffordable” and said implementing it would mean a 60% increase in Sweden’s contribution. That is her assessment, as reported by AP, rather than an independently verified contribution calculation. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the sides were “still a long way from reaching an agreement” and argued the budget must be affordable for the states carrying the main financing burden.
Why elections add pressure, but not certainty
AP’s 13 October report connected the push for agreement to unpredictable elections in France, Italy, Poland and Spain during 2026–2027. It cited hard-right strength in French polling and described outcomes in Poland and Spain as difficult to predict. The report does not provide a complete country-by-country election calendar, and it does not establish that any result will change the budget talks.
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The political concern is forward-looking: a change in national governments could complicate the search for unanimity, so leaders may prefer to settle the broad framework while current governments are in office. That is a possible reason for urgency, not a demonstrated effect of future election results. European Council President António Costa told leaders that a timely agreement was essential for economic predictability and stability.
What happens next, and what if the deadline slips?
The Council’s stated aim is to prepare the ground for a leaders’ political agreement by the end of 2026. That target is meant to leave time for the detailed programme laws to be adopted in 2027 and for funding to begin when the new framework starts in January 2028. Missing the political target would make the timetable harder; it does not mean EU funding immediately runs out.
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- 16 July 2025: The European Commission presented its 2028–2034 MFF proposal.
- 28 April 2026: Parliament adopted its interim report and negotiating position.
- 11 June 2026: The Cyprus Council Presidency presented a revised negotiating box with figures.
- Second half of 2026: The Irish Presidency is tasked with preparing the ground for an agreement among leaders. AP reported Ireland’s €1.62 trillion proposal on 13 October, ahead of an EU leaders’ summit scheduled for 15–16 October.
- 2027: The Council must adopt the MFF regulation unanimously after Parliament gives its consent. The separate own-resources decision also requires unanimity and national ratification; most sectoral programmes proceed through their relevant ordinary legislative procedures.
- 2028: The new MFF is due to enter into force for the 2028–2034 period.
Parliament’s role in the MFF regulation is significant but limited in form: under the special legislative procedure, it can consent to or reject the Council’s position, but it cannot amend it. Political agreement among leaders therefore does not complete all the legislative and ratification steps needed to put the budget into operation.
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