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Motilal Oswal’s reported ₹65 target for Suzlon Energy implied about 73% upside against the share price used in October 12, 2026 coverage—not a forecast or guarantee that investors would earn 73%. The brokerage’s bullish case rested on a large order book, a forecast recovery in deliveries and earnings, and a supportive wind-power outlook. The same case also depends on execution and on assumptions about earnings and valuation.
What the 73% upside figure means
Economic Times reported on October 12, 2026 that Suzlon shares were down nearly 30% year on year and 26% in 2026 to that point. Its report cited an early-trade NSE price of ₹38.69 and Motilal Oswal’s ₹65 target. Financial Express separately described the stock as down 31% over three months and also reported the ₹65 target and 73% implied upside. These are observations from different periods and reference prices, not figures to treat as current after those reports.
“Upside” here is the percentage difference between a target price and a reference market price at the time of reporting. It is not the brokerage’s estimate of the probability of reaching that price, a promised return, or a measure of risk. Share prices can fall, and a target can be revised or missed.
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As summarized by Livemint and in a July 2026 report recap carried by Moneycontrol, Motilal Oswal’s reported method was to apply 30 times estimated FY28 earnings per share (EPS). The recap described 30x as slightly above the brokerage’s cited historical average of 27x two-year forward price-to-earnings (P/E).
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The target therefore rests on two moving parts: the FY28 earnings estimate and the valuation multiple assigned to those earnings. Lower earnings, or a lower multiple, would reduce the implied value; higher earnings or a higher multiple would raise it. Neither input is certain, and a historical average does not establish what multiple the market will use in the future.
Why the brokerage was bullish
Order book and delivery forecasts
Motilal Oswal’s order book was reported at 5.9 GW at the end of Q1 FY27. The brokerage reportedly viewed that as sufficient visibility for estimated deliveries through Q3 FY28. Its forecasts, as summarized by Economic Times, Financial Express and Livemint, called for 3.3 GW of deliveries in FY27, including 2.1 GW in the second half, followed by 3.8 GW in FY28. Economic Times’ summary put the implied first-half FY27 delivery estimate at 1.2 GW.
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Financial Express also reported about 1.3 GW of FY27-to-date orders. That is a measure of orders received, not deliveries completed, and should not be substituted for the delivery forecast.
Expected earnings growth
Motilal Oswal reportedly forecast EBITDA growth at a 22% compound annual growth rate from FY26 to FY28. Its cited seasonal pattern was that the second half typically contributes 60–65% of annual EBITDA. These are brokerage estimates and observations relayed by the news reports, not company guidance independently established here.
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Wind-power demand and installations
The reports said India added about 3 GW of wind capacity in H1 FY27. Motilal Oswal extrapolated a historical pattern in which H2 installations are about 1.5 times H1, implying roughly 4.5 GW in H2 and around 7.5 GW for FY27. Financial Express cited an MNRE expectation of 7.5–8 GW for FY27. The annual figures were expectations, not completed installations.
The brokerage’s demand case also pointed to evening peak power needs. Economic Times reproduced its view that rising demand during those hours could support more wind capacity in wind-solar hybrid and firm, dispatchable renewable energy (FDRE) projects. Livemint cited an Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister paper from July 2026 reporting May evening peak power prices of ₹8.08/kWh in 2023, ₹9.40/kWh in 2025 and ₹9.71/kWh in 2026. Those figures belong to that paper’s stated context; they are not Motilal Oswal estimates or a direct measure of Suzlon’s future revenue.
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Repowering, exports and DevCo
Financial Express and Livemint attributed additional opportunities to the brokerage: a repowering opportunity of up to 25 GW, export markets under evaluation, and more than 600 MW of DevCo orders in the first four months of FY27. These are potential avenues, not proof of secured future revenue. Their value to Suzlon depends on timing, conversion into executable projects and successful delivery.
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Execution and order conversion
The forecasts require Suzlon to convert its order book into deliveries and earnings at the projected pace. Financial Express and Livemint identified execution and delivery targets as items to monitor. An order book provides visibility, but it does not by itself guarantee when orders will be completed or what profit they will generate.
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Forecast and valuation risk
The ₹65 target combines estimated FY28 EPS with a 30x multiple, slightly above the 27x historical average cited by the brokerage. A shortfall in earnings, a slower delivery ramp or a lower market valuation multiple could narrow or erase the implied upside. The wind-addition forecast and newer opportunities also depend on sector demand and project conversion.
A past estimate miss is context, not a verdict
A July 2026 recap of a quarterly result said revenue was 2% below Motilal Oswal’s estimate, deliveries 5% below, EBITDA 13% below and adjusted PAT 26% below. That historical miss illustrates that results can differ from forecasts; by itself, it does not establish that the brokerage’s October 2026 estimates will also be missed.
How to read the call as an investor
- Check the date and reference share price whenever someone quotes the 73% figure; it is tied to October 2026 coverage.
- Separate reported results from brokerage forecasts, and distinguish new orders from completed deliveries.
- Track delivery execution and earnings against the assumptions supporting the FY28 EPS estimate.
- Treat the ₹65 target as one brokerage’s valuation opinion, not a consensus price or a guaranteed outcome.
The October 2026 coverage summarized Motilal Oswal’s report rather than providing its full model, so the underlying estimates and disclosures cannot be independently assessed from those summaries alone. The reported Buy rating and target should be read as attributed analyst opinion, not personal financial advice.
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