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Standard Chartered has kept its $2 trillion stablecoin-market capitalization target but delayed the expected milestone from the end of 2028 to 2030. The change follows a 2026 plateau in the number of stablecoins outstanding, even as the coins already in circulation are being transferred more frequently. That combination points to slower issuance, not necessarily weaker use of existing tokens.
What changed in Standard Chartered’s outlook
The bank’s earlier work called for a $2 trillion stablecoin market by the end of 2028. Its revised timetable keeps the same target size but adds two years. Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital-assets research, linked the timing change to a prolonged pause in supply growth during 2026.
| Measure | Earlier outlook | Revised outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Market-capitalization target | $2 trillion | $2 trillion |
| Expected milestone | End of 2028 | 2030 |
| Supply backdrop | Faster expansion was assumed | Supply plateaued near $309 billion in 2026 |
| Usage backdrop | Not stated in the earlier timing | Transfer volume and turnover increased during 2026 |
The current supply estimate is about $309 billion. It has stayed roughly between $300 billion and $320 billion for about 12 months, according to Kendrick’s 2026 analysis. Reaching $2 trillion therefore now depends on a later resumption of issuance and demand growth rather than on the rapid expansion previously expected.
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How supply can stall while transaction volume rises
Stablecoin supply measures the value of tokens outstanding. Transfer volume measures how much value moves on-chain over a period. A flat supply can support a much larger volume if holders circulate the same units more often. This is why a supply plateau and rising transaction activity are not contradictory.
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| Usage measure | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Average monthly transfer volume | $4 trillion | Just under $10 trillion |
| Average monthly stablecoin velocity | 15 times | 30 times |
| Highest reported monthly transfer value | Not stated | $19 trillion in May 2026 |
The figures, from Standard Chartered analysis reported by The Block, show that the same broad pool of tokens was turning over more quickly. Average monthly transfers in 2026 were just under $10 trillion, compared with $4 trillion in 2025. May 2026 set a reported monthly record of $19 trillion. Average monthly velocity doubled from 15 times to 30 times, meaning the outstanding supply was used in more transaction cycles during the month.
USDT and USDC show different turnover patterns
The increase was not uniform across the two largest dollar stablecoin ecosystems covered in the analysis.
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- USDT: reported monthly velocity was about seven times.
- USDC: monthly velocity reached about 80 times, up from 45 times previously.
Velocity is an intensity measure, not a direct measure of new users or new capital entering the market. A high value can result from payments, trading, settlement or other repeated transfers by existing holders. It therefore helps explain why transaction activity can accelerate without a matching increase in market capitalization.
Why the forecast moved to 2030
Kendrick characterized the supply slowdown as cyclical and associated it with weak crypto-market activity. In that interpretation, subdued market conditions reduced the incentive or need to issue additional stablecoins, while the tokens already issued continued to support transfers. A recovery in broader crypto activity could restart issuance and put the market back on a faster growth path.
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That is an analyst interpretation and a forecast assumption, not an established outcome. The two-year delay acknowledges that the 2026 plateau has lasted long enough to make the former schedule less plausible, but it does not abandon the long-term $2 trillion thesis.
Is the slowdown temporary or evidence of weaker adoption?
Evidence consistent with a cyclical pause
- Transfer activity increased sharply despite the stablecoin supply range remaining near $300 billion to $320 billion.
- Average monthly volume was more than twice the 2025 level, and overall velocity doubled.
- The record $19 trillion month indicates that existing tokens can support substantial activity without immediate supply expansion.
What the figures do not establish
- Higher transfer volume does not prove that the number of unique users, merchants or long-term holders increased.
- Velocity can rise because of repeated trading or settlement activity, which may not create lasting demand for additional units.
- The data do not show when issuance will resume, how quickly supply could grow, or whether the $2 trillion target will ultimately be reached.
The most defensible reading is therefore mixed: usage intensity was strong in 2026, but the supply engine needed for a market-capitalization expansion remained stalled. Calling the pause temporary depends on a future recovery in crypto-market activity.
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What to watch after the forecast revision
Investors and analysts can distinguish a temporary issuance pause from a more structural slowdown by tracking several developments together:
- Supply leaving the plateau: sustained growth above the approximately $300 billion-$320 billion range would show that new issuance is again exceeding redemptions.
- Volume quality: continued high transfer totals alongside broader payment and settlement use would provide a different signal from short-lived trading spikes.
- Velocity direction: a return from 30 times toward the 2025 level of 15 times would indicate less turnover, while sustained or rising velocity would show continued intensity of use.
- Token mix: changes in the very different USDT and USDC velocity patterns could reveal whether growth is concentrated in one ecosystem.
- Market conditions: a recovery in crypto activity is central to Kendrick’s explanation for why issuance might restart.
Until supply growth resumes, the 2030 date should be treated as a revised projection rather than a scheduled event. The central tension in the outlook is clear: stablecoins are moving faster, but the stock of coins available to move has not yet expanded.
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