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New York City is sinking in some places, but building weight is only one contributor. A 2023 Earth’s Future study modeled more than one million buildings and found an average modeled building mass of 7.04 × 105 kilograms (1.55 million pounds). NASA satellite measurements show the metropolitan area subsided about 1.6 millimeters (0.06 inches) per year on average from 2016 through 2023, with substantially different rates by neighborhood.
How much weight are New York City’s buildings putting on the ground?
Parsons, Wu, Wei and D’Hondt’s 2023 study estimated the average mass of a city building at 7.04 × 105 kilograms, or 1.55 million pounds. Applying that average to a conservative floor of one million buildings gives roughly 7.04 × 1011 kilograms (1.55 × 1012 pounds) of building mass. That arithmetic is an illustrative lower-bound estimate, not a reported total for every structure in New York City. It also excludes people, contents, vehicles, infrastructure and the natural ground itself.
The important result is not that the entire city moves uniformly under one enormous load. A structure transfers stress through its foundation into local soil. Where that soil is soft or loose, the added stress can reduce pore space and produce settlement. The effect depends on the building, its foundation, the thickness and properties of the underlying deposits, and how the site was developed.
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NASA’s 2023 analysis identifies artificial fill and reclaimed land as important settings for faster subsidence. Fill placed during shoreline expansion or other land modification can remain loose and compressible beneath later construction. The study and NASA’s map also show strong neighborhood-to-neighborhood variation; isolated areas of Queens and Brooklyn are moving upward rather than downward.
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| Example location | Ground setting | What the evidence shows | Water and flood context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Governors Island | Artificial or reclaimed fill | NASA identifies it as a subsidence hotspot; a specific local rate is not stated. | Surrounded by tidal water, so downward motion can increase relative sea-level exposure. |
| Coney Island | Historically modified coastal ground and fill | Identified by NASA as an area of notable sinking; the cited studies do not assign one neighborhood-wide rate. | Low-lying coastal setting makes small elevation losses consequential during high water. |
| Arverne by the Sea, Queens | Reclaimed or artificial-fill setting | NASA identifies it as another hotspot; local motion varies within the area. | Near Jamaica Bay and the Atlantic coast, where subsidence can compound flood exposure. |
| Selected Queens and Brooklyn locations | Different soil, bedrock and loading conditions | Some isolated locations show uplift instead of subsidence. | Uplift can reduce, but does not eliminate, relative flood exposure at that site. |
These examples should not be read as a ranking of the city’s “fastest” neighborhoods. The published findings emphasize that geology and previous land modification are more informative than building height alone.
Why does the ground move?
Building load and soil consolidation
A building’s mass increases stress in the soil. Primary settlement occurs as water is squeezed from pore spaces in compressible deposits. In clay-rich layers, secondary settlement can continue after the initial response as the soil creeps. A heavier building can therefore contribute more stress, but the same building may settle very differently on dense material than on soft fill.
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Human changes to the land
Landfill placement, shoreline reclamation and other construction practices create or rearrange deposits. These materials may be less consolidated than older natural sediments, leaving more pore space to close under later loads. This is why artificial-fill settings appear prominently in the hotspot findings.
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Natural post-glacial adjustment
New York’s vertical motion also reflects geology unrelated to any individual building. The region is still adjusting thousands of years after the last ice age, and that long-term process contributes to regional uplift or subsidence. Building weight therefore contributes to observed sinking but does not explain every millimeter of motion.
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How scientists estimated the motion
The building-load study assembled building footprints, estimated heights and floor counts, assumptions about building mass, and models of surface geology, soil and bedrock. It calculated the deformation expected from those loads and compared the results with observations from satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and GPS.
NASA’s complementary analysis used radar measurements from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-1 satellites. Its time series covers 2016 through 2023 and maps vertical land motion across the metropolitan area at much finer spatial detail than a single citywide average. NASA reported an average downward rate of about 0.06 inches (1.6 millimeters) per year. The U.S. Geological Survey summarizes the broader citywide finding as mean subsidence of roughly 1 to 2 millimeters per year.
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Does subsidence make coastal flooding worse?
Yes, where the land moves downward, the ocean effectively rises relative to the ground even if the water level itself is unchanged. Subsidence can therefore add to the relative sea-level rise experienced during high tides, storm surge and coastal flooding. A millimeter-scale annual change is easy to miss in a single year but accumulates over decades, especially in low-lying neighborhoods. Uplift has the opposite local effect, although it does not cancel regional sea-level rise everywhere.
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A regional InSAR map cannot determine whether a particular building is structurally unsafe. It measures motion of the ground surface, not the condition of a foundation, frame or utility connection. Two nearby buildings can respond differently because they have different foundations, loads, construction dates and soil profiles.
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An address-level evaluation requires site-specific geotechnical and structural information. The relevant questions include:
- Is the building founded on competent material, soft clay, or artificial fill?
- What foundation type transfers the load to the ground, and how deep does it extend?
- Has the site been reclaimed, filled or otherwise modified?
- Is measured motion consistent across the parcel, or does it vary over a short distance?
- Is the property close enough to tidal water for small elevation changes to affect flood exposure?
When those answers matter for a purchase, renovation or persistent movement concern, a licensed geotechnical or structural professional must evaluate the site directly. Citywide averages and satellite maps are screening evidence, not an engineering diagnosis.
What the studies do and do not prove
- The modeled building masses use simplifying assumptions about geometry, floor heights, soil properties and loading history.
- The model does not reconstruct New York City’s complete 400-year construction chronology.
- Observed surface motion includes building loads, land modification and natural geological processes.
- Neither the modeled contribution nor the satellite record shows that building weight is the sole cause of sinking at any location.
The clearest conclusion is that more than one million buildings add a measurable load to New York’s ground, while the fastest or most consequential sinking is associated with the interaction of that load, compressible fill or sediment, and the city’s natural vertical motion.
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