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A new ice-sheet model indicates that seawater is reaching much farther beneath Thwaites Glacier than standard models allowed, increasing basal melting and the glacier’s exposure to ocean heat. The result raises projected sea-level risk, but it does not establish that Thwaites will certainly collapse by 2100.
What the new Thwaites Glacier study changes
Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica is popularly called the “Doomsday Glacier” because it is large, already losing ice and helps hold back ice farther inland. It is roughly the size of Florida or Britain. A report published by CNN Newsource/KESQ on October 15, 2026, describes a UC Irvine and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory model that treats the glacier’s grounding line as a broad, tide-driven grounding zone rather than a narrow, fixed boundary.
The grounding line is where ice resting on the seabed begins to float as an ice shelf. In the revised model, that transition can span several kilometres and move with the tides. Seawater can therefore flush in and out beneath ice that is still grounded. The pumping carries relatively warm ocean water inland, increases melting at the glacier’s base and reduces the area of ice in contact with the bed.
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The PNAS study “Widespread seawater intrusions beneath the grounded ice of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica” used daily-repeat ICEYE satellite radar interferometry collected from March through June 2023. Those observations documented seawater migration beneath grounded ice. The finding addresses a specific modeling omission: standard approaches did not fully represent tidal seawater moving through a mobile, kilometre-scale grounding zone.
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Lead author Mattia Poinelli, a project scientist at UCLA, said scientists have “come to acknowledge a different arrangement beneath Earth’s major ocean-terminating glaciers.” Eric Rignot of UC Irvine said the results “predict greater risk of and exposure for coastal flooding than anticipated in the coming decades.” Ted Scambos of the University of Colorado Boulder, who was not involved, called the result “a real gamechanger for sea level forecasting from Thwaites.”
How much sea-level rise could Thwaites add?
| Measure | Figure | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Modeled Thwaites contribution by 2100 | Up to 1.2 inches (about 30 millimeters) | The revised model’s upper result under an assumption of no additional global warming; roughly twice earlier estimates. |
| Ice-equivalent sea-level rise in Thwaites | About 0.6 meters (nearly 2 feet) | The global-average rise if the glacier’s entire ice volume were eventually lost. |
| Thwaites’ share of current global sea-level rise | About 4% | The contribution cited in the 2026 report. |
| Amundsen Sea region’s current share | About 8% of approximately 4.5 millimeters per year | A wider regional measure reported by the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC), not the same geographic scope as the glacier-only figure. |
| Chance of unpinning from Mouginot Ridge by 2100 | 60% | A model probability, not a date on which collapse is expected. |
| Possible wider West Antarctic response | Around 10 feet | A conditional risk if Thwaites’ loss triggers substantial retreat of inland ice; it is not a fixed-schedule forecast. |
The 1.2-inch result is a projection of additional global-average sea-level contribution from Thwaites under the model’s stated no-additional-warming assumption. Local water levels can differ substantially from the global average because of land motion, ocean circulation, tides and storm conditions. The number should therefore be used as a risk input for planning, not as a prediction of the water level at a particular shoreline.
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Why retreat can accelerate
A sloping bed exposes thicker ice
The glacier’s bed slopes downward inland. As the grounding line retreats, thicker ice can become exposed to ocean influence. If warm water continues to reach that newly exposed base, ice loss can increase and retreat can move inland more quickly.
Underwater ridges provide temporary resistance
Two underwater ridges currently help pin Thwaites in place. The 2026 model estimates a 60% chance that the glacier will unpin from Mouginot Ridge by the end of the century. Losing that contact could remove an important brake and allow retreat toward the next ridge. The probability describes a modeled outcome over a time horizon; it does not say that a complete collapse will follow immediately or inevitably.
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What this means for coastal cities
Even a fraction of an inch of additional global sea-level rise raises the baseline on which high tides, storm surge and extreme rainfall operate. The practical consequence is more frequent flooding of low-lying roads, ports, drainage systems and buildings, especially where land is sinking or protective infrastructure is already near its design limits. The revised result gives coastal planners a stronger reason to test flood defenses against higher-end sea-level scenarios rather than relying only on older glacier estimates.
Thwaites’ complete loss would contribute about 0.6 meters of global sea-level rise from its own ice. Because the glacier buttresses inland parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, its retreat could also destabilize additional ice. The often-cited roughly 10-foot figure describes that wider, conditional response—not a forecast that the whole ice sheet will collapse on a known schedule.
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How certain is a collapse this century?
No. The new study increases concern about the rate of basal melting, but it does not prove that Thwaites will collapse by 2100. Robert Larter, a marine geophysicist at the British Antarctic Survey, cautioned that scientists still need to learn much more about grounding-zone processes before they can make confident predictions about the speed of ice loss.
An ITGC assessment published in December 2024 found that a rapid, catastrophic-collapse scenario during this century was less likely than earlier worst-case projections, while emphasizing that serious risk remains. That assessment and the 2026 study answer different questions: the earlier work examined collapse timing and system dynamics, whereas the newer work changes how seawater-driven basal melting is represented.
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What scientists will measure next
Direct observations beneath the grounding line remain limited. The team described in the 2026 report plans a field deployment in 2028 to measure how seawater flushes through the grounding zone. Those measurements should help test how widely the intrusion occurs, how far inland warm water travels and how much additional melt it causes.
For now, the strongest conclusion is specific: Thwaites is already an important source of sea-level rise, and allowing tidal seawater to penetrate a broad grounding zone can make modeled ice loss substantially larger. The revised projection is a warning to incorporate that process into future forecasts, not a countdown clock to an inevitable 2100 collapse.
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