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A study in Nature Human Behaviour estimates that Australia had a median Indigenous population of 2.22 million in 1788. By the 1861 census benchmark, about 7% remained—an estimated 93% decline over 73 years. The researchers model 2.06 million excess deaths, but stress that this is an uncertain demographic estimate, not an exact body count or a death toll attributable to one cause.
What the study found
The study places the median Indigenous population of Australia at 2.22 million when the First Fleet arrived in 1788. Earlier historical estimates commonly ranged from 250,000 to 1 million. Comparing the new population model with early colonial census records, the researchers estimate that 2.06 million excess deaths occurred between 1788 and the 1861 census benchmark.
| Measure | Modelled figure | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Estimated Indigenous population in 1788 | 2.22 million median | The study’s central estimate before British invasion |
| Earlier historical estimates | 250,000–1 million | Older range cited for comparison |
| Estimated excess deaths, 1788–1861 | 2.06 million | A modelled demographic estimate, not a precise count of identified deaths |
| Average excess deaths across 73 years | 28,200 per year | The 2.06-million estimate divided across the study period |
| Estimated population remaining in 1861 | About 7% | The basis for describing a 93% loss from the 1788 median |
| Modelled range for total deaths | About 700,000–4.2 million | The uncertainty interval reported for the wider modelling |
The 93% figure therefore describes the change from the study’s median estimate for 1788 to the population level represented by 1861 records. It does not mean that exactly 93% of every Indigenous community died, nor that every death occurred at the same rate across Australia.
How researchers estimated a population that was not counted nationally
Colonial records were incomplete, geographically uneven and often recorded communities after disease, dispossession and violence had already reduced their numbers. Australia did not have a comprehensive national census of Indigenous Australians until 1971. To avoid relying solely on those damaged records, the researchers combined three independent approaches.
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Archaeological radiocarbon evidence
The team analysed more than 5,000 archaeological radiocarbon dates. The distribution and timing of dated sites provide a long-term signal of human activity and population change across different environments, including periods before written records.
Genetic estimates
Genetic data were used to infer effective population size—the number of people contributing genes to later generations. This is not identical to a headcount, but it supplies an independent constraint on the scale and history of Indigenous populations.
Environmental productivity modelling
The researchers modelled how many people non-agricultural Australian environments could support. This approach incorporates ecological productivity and the subsistence systems of societies that did not rely on intensive agriculture.
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- Robert Hughes, The Fatal Shore: The Epic of Australia's Founding, paperback
Each method has different assumptions. Their broadly similar results are why the authors argue that the much larger 1788 estimate is not dependent on a single record or calculation.
What drove the demographic catastrophe?
The model cannot reliably assign each excess death to a separate cause. Disease, frontier violence and the disruption of food systems overlapped, and the effects of one could intensify another. The evidence identifies several connected mechanisms.
Introduced infectious diseases
Smallpox, measles, influenza and tuberculosis spread through Indigenous communities that had no previous exposure to some of these pathogens. The University of New South Wales account describes a smallpox epidemic in the Sydney region in 1789, followed by later outbreaks between 1826 and 1838 and again between 1860 and 1869. Related modelling cited by UNSW estimates that the first epidemic may have caused up to 220,000 deaths in south-eastern Australia.
Frontier killings and military violence
As colonisation expanded, armed conflict and organised killings occurred on the frontier. These deaths were often poorly recorded or not recorded at all, making a complete national total impossible to reconstruct from colonial documents.
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Taking Country, fencing and settlement restricted access to traditional food sources and water. Indigenous people could also be blocked from, or criminalised for, obtaining food in customary ways. Malnutrition increased vulnerability to infection and other causes of death.
Forced labour and family separation
Exploitative labour systems, coercion and the removal of children and family members damaged health, community networks and the transmission of cultural knowledge. These structural effects could persist after an outbreak or violent encounter had ended.
Why the 2.06-million figure is not an exact death toll
“Excess deaths” is a modelling term. It represents the deaths the researchers infer were needed to explain the population decline relative to the estimated pre-invasion population and expected demographic patterns. It does not identify 2.06 million individual death certificates.
- The central estimate is 2.06 million, while the reported modelled range is roughly 700,000 to 4.2 million.
- Early censuses were fragmentary and often counted people only after epidemics, displacement or violence had reduced populations.
- The study cannot produce a dependable national split between disease, killings, starvation, labour exploitation and other forms of structural violence.
- Regional experiences differed; an Australia-wide percentage should not be read as a uniform loss in every community.
How this estimate differs from older population figures
Earlier estimates of 250,000 to 1 million were constrained by colonial observations and incomplete counts. Those sources generally missed people living away from settlements, communities that avoided colonial authorities and populations already reduced before an official count was made.
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What happened after 1861?
The study’s 1861 benchmark captures the steep early decline; it is not the endpoint of Indigenous history. The 2021 Australian Census counted 812,728 people identifying as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. That is about 37% of the study’s 1788 median population estimate, reflecting substantial population recovery from the 1861 low while remaining far below the pre-invasion level.
Researchers cited in coverage describe this recovery alongside continued survival, cultural continuity and resilience. A projection that population parity with the 1788 median could occur around 2047 is conditional on current growth trends, not a guaranteed forecast.
Why the finding matters for Australia’s history
Professor Corey Bradshaw of Flinders University said that establishing the size of Indigenous populations before 1788 is essential to truth-telling and reconciliation. Professor Larissa Behrendt described the decline as “a demographic catastrophe at the heart of the Australian story,” while Bradshaw said a 93% reduction in roughly seven decades could not be interpreted as anything other than disastrous.
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Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →The scale of the estimate also affects debates about land, environmental stewardship and policy. Recognising that Indigenous societies supported millions of people before invasion challenges the idea that the continent was sparsely inhabited or unmanaged. It places Indigenous-led land management, historical recognition and reconciliation in the context of a profound population loss followed by remarkable survival.
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