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National rent data points to a measured, mixed market—not falling rents. Zillow’s September 2026 index put typical U.S. rent at $1,932, up 2.7% from a year earlier, while 39.6% of listings on Zillow offered a concession. Separately, the U.S. Census Bureau’s rental vacancy rate was 7.3% in the second quarter and was statistically unchanged year over year. Those figures describe different things: asking rents, advertised move-in incentives, and a survey estimate of vacant rental units.
What the latest national rental data says
| Indicator | Latest figure | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Typical asking rent | $1,932 in September 2026; up 2.7% year over year and 0.1% from August | Zillow’s commercial Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), not a government rent estimate. Zillow called the annual increase its largest since April 2025. Zillow, September 2026 Market Report |
| Listings with concessions | 39.6% on Zillow in September 2026, compared with 37.4% a year earlier and 39.3% in August | The share of rental listings on Zillow advertising an incentive—not the share of all U.S. rentals. Zillow, September 2026 Market Report |
| Rental vacancy rate | 7.3% in Q2 2026; 7.0% in Q2 2025 | Census survey estimate. The Bureau said the year-over-year difference was not statistically significant; the rate was also virtually the same as Q1 2026. U.S. Census Bureau, Q2 2026 |
Put together, these measures suggest renters may encounter more advertised incentives and a relatively elevated vacancy rate, while the asking-rent index remains above its level a year earlier. They do not establish that rents are falling nationwide or that every renter has more leverage.
Are rents going down in 2026?
No, not according to Zillow’s latest national asking-rent index. Its September 2026 ZORI was $1,932, 2.7% higher than in September 2025. The month-to-month increase was small—0.1%—but a small monthly change is not the same as a year-over-year decline.
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ZORI is a listing-based commercial index. It should not be treated as an official Census rent estimate or directly equated with Census figures for vacant units: the sources use different definitions, samples, and coverage. For the September snapshot, the Zillow index is the relevant figure for observed asking-rent movement.
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Why can rents rise while more apartments are available?
Rent levels, available choices, and incentives can move differently. A landlord can hold the advertised monthly rent steady or raise it modestly while offering a free month, waived fees, or free parking to attract a renter. The listed price and a renter’s effective cost after incentives are therefore not always the same.
Zillow’s June 2026 report connected elevated availability and concessions with substantial new rental inventory and a years-long building boom. It also noted that apartment completions fell in Q2 as net absorption increased, suggesting the flow of new apartments was slowing. These are Zillow’s market interpretation and apartment-sector observations; they are not the same measure as Census’s vacancy rate for rental units across the country. Zillow, July 23, 2026
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There is no single rental-supply total in the figures cited here. Census’s latest completed housing-unit estimates, Vintage 2025, cover all housing units through July 1, 2025—not rental units alone. They cannot be used as a count of newly added rentals. U.S. Census Bureau, housing-unit estimates
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Many Zillow listings were advertising concessions: 39.6% in September 2026, up from 37.4% a year earlier. That is a share of listings on Zillow, not a national survey of every landlord or rental home. Examples of concessions include a move-in discount such as a free month, waived fees, or free parking. Zillow’s June 2026 report
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To compare an offer with the asking price, calculate the effective monthly rent over the lease term. For example, if a 12-month lease advertises one month free, divide the total rent payable across the 12 months by 12; then add any required fees or parking costs that apply. Confirm the incentive’s conditions, timing, and whether it changes the rent due after the promotion.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Is the rental market getting easier for renters?
Some indicators point to more opportunity, but the national picture is not a guarantee for an individual search. A higher listing-concession share can make certain new leases less expensive after incentives, and an elevated vacancy rate may signal more available units overall. Yet the national asking-rent index was still rising year over year.
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Conditions vary substantially by metro and property type. Zillow’s reports show wide local differences in rents and concessions; its June comparison also found single-family rent growth exceeded multifamily rent growth. A national average can obscure a tight local market, a relatively negotiable one, or a difference between apartments and houses.
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How to apply the national figures to your city
- Check local asking rents. Use a local metro or neighborhood figure rather than assuming the U.S. average describes your search area.
- Compare the full lease cost. Convert concessions into an effective monthly amount, and include mandatory fees and recurring charges.
- Look at the property type. Apartment and single-family rent trends can differ, as can local supply conditions.
- Treat vacancy as context, not a rent quote. Census’s national rate is a quarterly survey estimate of rental-unit availability, not a current list of the homes advertised in your city.
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