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Yes—but only as part of a locally designed restoration program. A 2026 Lancaster University study found that rat eradication, seabird recovery and native-vegetation restoration can reinforce coral growth, reef sediment production and island-soil stability. In the study’s modeled 2°C-warming scenario, some rat-free, seabird-populated atoll reefs could keep pace with projected sea-level rise through 2100. That is a conditional ecological result, not a guarantee for every island or a universal replacement for coastal defenses.
What the 2026 study measured
Researchers combined ecological data from 28 atoll islands in the Seychelles, the Chagos Archipelago and Tetiaroa in French Polynesia. They examined seabird nutrient inputs, coral-reef growth and calcification, reef sediment production, and the structure of plant roots. The analysis connected three interventions: removing invasive rats, restoring native vegetation and allowing the island–reef system to rebuild biological and physical processes.
Invasive rats can eat seabird eggs and chicks as well as native seeds, shoots and flowers. Their removal can therefore change both the animal community and the plants that hold island sediments. Recovered seabirds bring nutrients from the open ocean in their droppings; those nutrients support reef organisms and increase the supply of sand and rubble. Denser native roots help keep that material on the island.
Measured differences around seabird-populated islands
| Measure | Finding reported by Lancaster University (2026) |
|---|---|
| Lagoonal-reef growth | 1.8 times higher around rat-free, seabird-populated islands than around rat-infested islands |
| Ocean-facing reef growth | 2.5 times higher around rat-free, seabird-populated islands than around rat-infested islands |
| Sediment-production potential | Estimated at 2.3 to 2.8 times higher around seabird-populated islands |
| Modeled sediment difference | About 170 cubic metres (6,000 cubic feet) more sediment produced around the reefs each year for an island of about 14 hectares (35 acres) |
| Fine-root length | 4.6 times higher where native vegetation was abundant than where native vegetation was sparse |
The sediment figure is a model for an island of the stated size, not a measurement that applies to every atoll. Likewise, the growth multipliers describe the study’s island comparisons and should not be treated as fixed outcomes for future projects.
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How removing rats can affect a coral reef
- Predation falls. With rats gone, seabird eggs and chicks are more likely to survive, allowing colonies to rebuild.
- Plant recruitment improves. Rats no longer consume as many native seeds, shoots and flowers, so natural vegetation can return where suitable propagules remain.
- Nutrients move from sea to land and reef. Seabirds feed offshore and deposit nutrient-rich droppings on islands and nearby reefs.
- Reef production increases. Nutrient-enhanced reefs can support faster coral growth and calcification, along with more sediment-producing organisms such as parrotfish.
- More sediment is available to the island. Coral fragments, shells and other carbonate material help beaches and island rims rebuild as waves move sediment around.
These links explain why a rat campaign is not simply a pest-control exercise. Its possible climate benefit depends on the recovery of the wider food web and on the reef remaining healthy enough to convert biological growth into durable sediment.
Why native plants matter for staying above the water
Native vegetation and coconut-dominated plantations do not provide the same root structure. The study found fine-root length was 4.6 times higher in areas with abundant native plants. Longer, denser roots can bind loose island sediment, limit erosion and help soil retain water and nutrients. Vegetation also slows wind and surface runoff, giving newly deposited material more opportunity to remain on the island.
Planting must be ecologically appropriate rather than a generic seed mix. Species selection, existing invasive plants, freshwater conditions and the island’s disturbance history all affect whether restoration strengthens or destabilizes the shoreline. The proposed sequence is usually to remove the rat pressure, protect or reintroduce locally appropriate native plants, and then monitor whether the plant community is reproducing without continual replanting.
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What the sea-level-rise result does—and does not—say
The Lancaster University release says rat-free, seabird-populated lagoonal reefs could closely keep pace with projected sea-level rise through the end of the century under a 2°C warming scenario. It also says reefs without seabirds have limited ability to keep up. This is a modeled scenario based on linked ecological processes, not a promise that every restored island will remain habitable under any emissions pathway.
Outcomes will vary with local reef condition, storm exposure, wave climate, sediment budgets, groundwater, invasive species and the rate of sea-level rise. A restored reef may still be overwhelmed by extreme storms or by warming-driven coral decline. Nick Graham, the study’s lead author at Lancaster University, said:
“Atoll islands are not static; they are naturally active systems that can change and adapt to their environmental conditions if they are allowed to do so.”
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Evidence from existing island projects
Midway Atoll
The U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service says Midway Atoll was declared rat-free in 1996. After eradication, native naupaka recovered and seabird populations rebounded. The agency explains that rats had eaten plants and seeds and helped invasive plants spread. This is a field example of the two recovery pathways identified by the study: protecting birds and releasing native vegetation from direct pressure.
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At Palmyra, the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service describes rat removal as the first step in a broader restoration program. It reports visible increases in seedlings and animals after removal and expects long-term increases in plant and animal density and diversity to improve atoll resilience. The agency states:
“We believe removing all the rats will increase the density and diversity of plant and animals at Palmyra in the long term, and thereby the resilience of the atoll.”
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Other Pacific examples
The IUCN describes rat-removal projects at Palmyra, Enderbury, Birnie and Henderson. Its account emphasizes that rats prey on seabird eggs and chicks, compete with native species and eat native-plant seeds. In the Cook Islands, the Te Ipukarea Society reports that long-term rat control helped the kākerōri recover from 29 birds to more than 500. That population change is a regional conservation result, not a measurement from the 2026 atoll study.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Restoration compared with hard coastal engineering
| Decision factor | Ecological restoration | Hard defenses such as seawalls |
|---|---|---|
| Processes addressed | Can link seabirds, coral growth, carbonate sediment and soil-root stability in one program | Primarily blocks or redirects waves at a protected shoreline |
| Ecological side effects | Can improve biodiversity when species and methods are locally appropriate; poorly chosen introductions can cause harm | Can alter currents, beaches and nearshore habitat, with effects depending on design and location |
| Speed of benefits | Usually gradual: rat removal, plant recovery, reef growth and sediment accumulation take time | Physical protection can begin after construction, but does not create new reef or soil functions |
| Maintenance and feasibility | Requires eradication planning, monitoring, biosecurity and community engagement; remote or uninhabited islands may be practical targets | Requires construction access, inspections and long-term maintenance; some atolls cannot support or justify the necessary works |
| Role in adaptation | May increase the island–reef system’s ability to absorb wave energy and maintain land | Can remain necessary where people, infrastructure or extreme exposure exceed ecological protection alone |
The study does not claim restoration replaces coastal defenses everywhere. Dr. Jennifer Appoo of the University of the Seychelles said:
“Our results show new evidence that island restoration is not only beneficial to biodiversity conservation but can enhance the resilience of low-lying atoll islands in the face of sea-level rise, particularly where costly engineering solutions are unfeasible or inappropriate.”
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Requirements for a responsible restoration program
- Map the baseline. Document rat distribution, seabird colonies, native and invasive plants, reef condition, shoreline movement and sediment sources.
- Plan eradication and biosecurity together. Rats can reinvade through boats, cargo or visiting vessels, so quarantine rules and follow-up detection are essential.
- Work with local communities and authorities. Access, food systems, cultural priorities and disposal methods affect whether an eradication campaign is safe and acceptable.
- Use locally appropriate vegetation. Protect natural regeneration where possible and monitor survival, reproduction, root development and invasive-plant competition.
- Measure the reef and island as one system. Track seabird numbers, coral growth, calcification, sediment production, beach profiles, soil loss and storm recovery rather than relying on a single indicator.
- Plan for climate uncertainty. Test whether the expected gains remain sufficient under different sea-level, warming and storm scenarios, and retain targeted defenses where the risk analysis requires them.
Professor Yadvinder Malhi of the University of Oxford summarized the broader implication:
“Restoring and boosting the wildness of these islands through seabirds and native vegetation helps these islands to adapt to global change.”
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