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“Harvest now, decrypt later” is a confidentiality risk: an attacker can copy encrypted information today and keep it in case a future cryptographically relevant quantum computer can decrypt it. The sensible response is to identify which data must remain secret for years, find the public-key cryptography protecting it, and plan a tested migration—not to assume current encryption has already been broken.
How a harvest-now, decrypt-later attack works
An attacker records encrypted traffic or obtains encrypted files now, then stores those copies. If a future quantum computer can break the public-key cryptography used to establish encryption keys, the attacker may be able to recover information from the retained material. The exposure would happen later, but the collection can happen before the technology needed to decrypt it exists.
This makes the threat depend on two timelines: how long the information must remain confidential and how long it takes to replace cryptography across the systems that protect it. A short-lived secret may lose value before a future decryption capability exists; a medical, legal, government, commercial, or personal secret that must remain private for many years can have a longer exposure window.
NIST says, “No one knows how long it will take to build a cryptographically relevant quantum computer.” That uncertainty is not evidence that such a computer exists or can currently break today’s public-key cryptography. NIST also notes that, historically, integrating new algorithms into information systems after standardization can take 10 to 20 years. That figure describes a past integration experience, not a forecast for every organization’s migration.
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What post-quantum cryptography changes
Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) refers to cryptographic algorithms designed to resist attacks from both conventional and quantum computers. It is intended to replace vulnerable cryptographic building blocks in systems that need to keep working securely as quantum capabilities develop. Adopting PQC is a planned transition, not a way to repair a system that has already been decrypted.
On August 13, 2024, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce approved three NIST Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS). They do different jobs: one establishes shared secret keys; two create digital signatures. They are not interchangeable choices, and a system may need more than one cryptographic function.
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| Standard | Algorithm | Primary job | What that means in a system |
|---|---|---|---|
| FIPS 203 | ML-KEM, derived from CRYSTALS-KYBER | Key encapsulation mechanism (KEM) | Establishes a shared secret key across a public channel, which can then be used in an encryption protocol. |
| FIPS 204 | ML-DSA, derived from CRYSTALS-Dilithium | Digital signature | Allows a system to verify that signed data has not been changed and that it came from the holder of the signing key. |
| FIPS 205 | SLH-DSA, derived from SPHINCS+ | Digital signature | Provides another standardized approach to signing and verifying data. |
NIST’s 2026 project information says these finalized standards can and should be put into use now. Standardization work continues, so distinguish these approved standards from algorithms that may be candidates for future standards. An organization should base deployment on its use case, product support, protocol dependencies, and interoperability testing—not treat the three standards as a menu of equivalent replacements.
Which data and systems deserve priority
Start with information whose confidentiality would still matter years from now, then trace the cryptography that protects it. The relevant question is not simply whether a system uses encryption today; it is what data the encryption protects, how long that data remains sensitive, and whether the system relies on quantum-vulnerable public-key algorithms.
- Long-lived sensitive information: Identify records, communications, intellectual property, and other data whose exposure would remain harmful well into the future.
- Public-key dependencies: Find where key establishment and digital signatures are used in applications, network protocols, certificates, products, and services.
- Systems with broad consequences: Consider the importance of the information or process protected, how many systems depend on the component, and how difficult it would be to replace or update it.
- External services and products: Include providers and embedded components in the inventory; an organization cannot complete a migration if critical cryptographic functionality is controlled by a supplier without a workable update path.
The materials from NIST and its National Cybersecurity Center of Excellence (NCCoE) do not quantify how widespread harvest-now collection is or how much data has been collected. Prioritization should therefore rest on the sensitivity and required secrecy lifetime of the organization’s data, rather than an unsupported prevalence estimate.
How to begin a migration to PQC
NCCoE identifies cryptographic asset discovery and inventory as a good starting point. The following sequence is a practical synthesis of NIST and NCCoE migration guidance, not a mandatory checklist or a promise that every system can move in the same way.
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- Discover cryptographic use. Locate cryptography in applications, network protocols, certificates, products, and services. Record the algorithms and components involved where they can be identified.
- Connect each use to what it protects. Map cryptographic assets to the data or process they secure, and record how long confidentiality or authenticity is required.
- Rank migration risk. Prioritize high-value, long-lived sensitive data and systems that depend on quantum-vulnerable public-key algorithms. Include operational impact and dependencies in the ranking.
- Coordinate with providers. Ask product and service providers which PQC standards they support, how updates will be delivered, and how their cryptographic roadmaps affect your systems. Include suppliers whose products or services embed cryptography.
- Test before production rollout. Check interoperability with connected systems and assess implementation performance in the relevant environment. A supported algorithm still needs to work across the protocols, products, and services that communicate with one another.
- Maintain crypto agility. Design procurement, architecture, and update processes so cryptographic components can be changed again when standards, implementation needs, or system dependencies change.
NCCoE’s project work includes cryptographic visibility and risk management—building and maintaining an inventory—and interoperability and benchmarking, including support for providers embedding PQC and assessment of implementations. That framing helps explain why migration is an engineering and operational program, not merely an algorithm switch.
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What the 2035 NIST transition means
NIST’s project page describes a standards transition under which quantum-vulnerable algorithms will be deprecated and ultimately removed from NIST standards by 2035, with high-risk systems transitioning earlier. This is the timeline for NIST standards; it is not a universal legal deadline for every private company or every system worldwide.
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Organizations that must follow particular standards or regulatory requirements should determine how those requirements apply to their own systems. Others can still use the NIST transition as a planning signal: inventory first, identify long-lived risks, coordinate dependencies, and schedule tested changes rather than waiting until a provider or standard forces a rushed replacement.
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