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Oil prices fell and most stock markets rose early Monday, October 12, 2026, after U.S. President Donald Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an “energy ceasefire.” Traders weighed the possibility that a halt to attacks on energy infrastructure could ease risks to Russian oil supply. But the announcement came with few details, and the available reports did not establish that a ceasefire had been confirmed by Moscow or would hold.
How far did Brent and WTI fall?
At 0037 GMT on October 12, Reuters reported early-session declines in both major crude benchmarks. These are snapshots from that time, not closing prices.
| Benchmark | Price per barrel | Change | Observation time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude futures | $103.35 | Down $1.37 (1.31%) | 0037 GMT, October 12, 2026 |
| U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures | $90.55 | Down $1.30 (1.42%) | 0037 GMT, October 12, 2026 |
Reuters, republished by Metrobank Wealth Insights, attributed the decline to expectations that a ceasefire could allow more Russian supply. That describes a market expectation, not evidence that additional oil had already reached the market.
Why did stocks rise while the ceasefire was uncertain?
Agence France-Presse reported that most stock markets rose as oil prices tumbled. The available report supports that broad direction, but not precise moves for particular indexes. Investors may have treated the prospect of reduced energy disruption as positive even while the terms and durability of the announcement remained unresolved. That is a plausible reading of the market reaction, not proof that the ceasefire was in force.
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The AFP account, republished by Yahoo News Malaysia, does not provide benchmark-specific figures, and the cited reporting does not establish closing moves for named equity indexes. The oil prices above are from an early-session observation; they should not be presented as end-of-day levels.
What was announced, and what remained unconfirmed?
On Sunday, October 11, Trump wrote: “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” The Associated Press reported that he offered no further details and that Moscow had not immediately commented.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine “welcomed” the announcement as “good news for everyone.” AP also reported that Zelenskyy said Russian attacks on energy infrastructure were continuing. The reports therefore distinguish Trump’s claim of an agreement from evidence that attacks had stopped: they do not establish a confirmed, sustained halt.
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Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →The Associated Press account covers the announcement and the reported Ukrainian response. The oil-market coverage likewise treated the ceasefire’s durability as uncertain.
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Why might the oil-price pullback be limited?
Lower perceived risk to energy infrastructure and exports can affect traders’ expectations before any extra supply is delivered. If the announcement led traders to expect fewer disruptions and more Russian oil reaching the market, that could help explain the early decline. Whether that expectation becomes actual supply depends on events after the announcement.
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, cautioned: “Questions remain over the validity and longevity of any such ceasefire, and without clearer evidence that it will actually hold, the extent of the pullback is likely to stay limited.” His comments underline why a price move alone cannot demonstrate that the arrangement was implemented or would last.
Reuters, republished by MarketScreener, reported the uncertainty alongside the supply expectations behind the oil decline.
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