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Nomura’s reported October 2026 view does not verify a specific ₹12–15-per-bag increase as the amount needed to offset fuel costs. Moneycontrol’s October 6 account of the brokerage’s channel checks says trade prices rose about ₹10 per bag in September and dealers expected a further increase of about ₹10 in October. Nomura named UltraTech Cement and Dalmia Bharat as its top picks, both with reported Buy ratings, while warning that weak demand could limit how much of any hike the market absorbs.
What Nomura’s reported October update actually says
Moneycontrol reported on October 6, 2026, that Nomura’s channel checks showed an approximately ₹10-per-bag month-on-month increase in pan-India cement trade prices in September. Dealers expected a further increase of around ₹10 per bag in October. These are reported market checks and expectations, not confirmation that every company implemented the increases or that customers paid them in full.
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The reported average adjusted trade price in 2QFY27 was ₹325 per bag, broadly flat quarter-on-quarter. That quarterly average and the September monthly movement describe different periods and measures; one should not be read as proof that the October expectation was achieved.
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Nomura’s reported top picks were UltraTech Cement and Dalmia Bharat, both rated Buy. The update is a media account of brokerage research, not the underlying Nomura note, and the ratings are attributed to Nomura as reported by Moneycontrol.
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Why cement producers were seeking higher prices
Fuel costs were still elevated in Nomura’s reported checks. Average imported fuel costs rose 1% quarter-on-quarter and remained more than 15% above their 4QFY26 level. Thermal-coal prices rose 2% and retail diesel prices 4% in the latter part of 2QFY27, according to the figures Moneycontrol attributed to Nomura.
Cost pressure was visible in reported spreads: the average cement spread in 2QFY27 was ₹2,449 per tonne, down ₹62 per tonne quarter-on-quarter. Measures that account for fuel costs with a lag were also weaker than the 1QFY27 average: the 60-day fuel-cost-lagged spread declined ₹106 per tonne and the 90-day measure declined ₹250 per tonne. These are brokerage-reported estimates, not official industry statistics.
Nomura’s reported assessment was that “sustained margins will depend more on the industry’s ability to maintain pricing than on further easing in input costs.” In other words, lower input costs alone were not the only route to margin support; producers also needed to retain price increases. The data do not establish that a particular per-bag hike would fully offset fuel inflation.
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Where October price momentum was strongest
Price movements were not uniform across India, and an announced increase is not the same as an effective transaction price.
- South: Nomura’s reported checks indicated the strongest momentum, with indications of increases of up to ₹20 per bag.
- North and East: announced ₹10-per-bag increases had not been effectively implemented, according to the report.
- Central: prices were broadly flat.
The report also summarized dealer feedback as saying the price push was “largely company-led.” Dealers expected further increases to be difficult to absorb and potentially delayed amid weak uptake, festivals and monsoon-related disruption. That makes regional dealer acceptance and actual trade prices more useful indicators of pass-through than announcements alone.
How the ₹12–15 figure compares with other reported forecasts
The available October 6 Nomura coverage does not attribute a ₹12–15-per-bag required hike to fuel costs. Other outlets reported different ranges from different brokerages; they should not be merged into a Nomura estimate.
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| Brokerage attribution | Reported increase | Date and qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Elara Capital, as reported by ETEnergyWorld | ₹5–15 per bag | September 30, 2026; planned early-October increase. The report also cited a 19% rise in petcoke prices over the prior month. |
| Centrum Broking, as reported by The Economic Times/ANI | ₹5–20 per bag | September 29, 2026; possible October increase, with sustainability dependent on demand and dealer acceptance. |
Those ranges were forecasts or planned increases as reported on their respective dates, not proof of realized prices. They do not substantiate the claim that Nomura specified ₹12–15 per bag as the amount necessary to offset fuel costs.
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Demand remains the key test for margin recovery
Nomura forecast FY27 cement-volume growth of 6–7%, as reported by Moneycontrol on October 6. That is a forecast, not a reported result. The same coverage highlights the tension facing producers: they were trying to pass through higher costs while dealers described weak uptake and resistance to further increases.
For investors following the sector, the useful distinction is between a price hike being announced, being implemented at the dealer level, and being sustained in realized prices. Demand recovery and dealer acceptance determine whether reported increases translate into stronger spreads; fuel and packaging costs remain part of the margin equation. The figures available here do not establish subsequent outcomes.
Sources and scope
- Moneycontrol, October 6, 2026: Nomura channel checks, price and cost figures, regional variation, FY27 volume forecast, and reported top picks.
- ETEnergyWorld, September 30, 2026: Elara Capital’s reported early-October increase range and petcoke cost figure.
- The Economic Times/ANI, September 29, 2026: Centrum Broking’s reported possible October range and conditions for sustainability.
This is market-news context, not individualized investment advice.
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