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There is no evidence-based single winner between Nebius and CoreWeave for investors as of October 13, 2026. CoreWeave reports the larger current operating footprint, newer backlog and liquidity figures, but also very heavy capital spending and explicit potential dilution. Nebius reported exceptionally rapid Q4 2025 growth and positive adjusted EBITDA in its core AI infrastructure business, while its much larger 2026 figures remain management targets rather than achieved results. The decision therefore depends on whether you prioritize demonstrated scale and contracted visibility or earlier-stage growth with greater execution uncertainty.
The short answer for investors
CoreWeave is the more scaled and recently documented operator. In its quarter ended June 30, 2026, it reported approximately $104 billion of revenue backlog, 1.5 gigawatts (GW) of active power and about 3.7 GW of contracted power. It also reported $5.524 billion of cash and cash equivalents and $15.553 billion of total liquidity, including availability under existing facilities. Those figures provide substantial visibility, but they do not mean that $104 billion is current revenue or cash, and the expansion required to serve those commitments is consuming enormous amounts of capital.
Nebius offers a different profile. At year-end 2025, it reported $1.25 billion of annual recurring revenue (ARR), Q4 group revenue of $228 million, and core AI infrastructure revenue of $214 million, up 802% year over year. Group adjusted EBITDA became positive in Q4, and the core AI infrastructure business reported a 24% adjusted EBITDA margin. Nebius then targeted $7 billion to $9 billion of ARR, more than 3 GW of contracted power and 800 megawatts (MW) to 1 GW of connected power by the end of 2026. Those are targets, not results.
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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteFor a long-term investor, the central question is not simply which company has the larger headline number. It is whether each provider can convert contracted demand into energized capacity, delivered GPU services, recognized revenue, operating cash flow and durable returns after interest, depreciation and maintenance capital. The available company filings do not establish current share prices, market capitalizations or valuation multiples, so they cannot support a claim that either stock is cheaper or will produce a higher return.
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Why this comparison is difficult
The headline metrics come from different reporting dates, definitions and business scopes. CoreWeave’s newest figures here are for Q2 2026. Nebius’s latest fully supported operating figures are for Q4 2025, accompanied by 2026 guidance. Comparing a reported result with a future target can make an earlier-stage company appear closer to a scaled peer than it really is.
- Backlog is not revenue. CoreWeave’s backlog includes remaining performance obligations and other estimated future amounts under committed contracts. Delivery and service-availability requirements must still be met, and the company says more than $25 billion of net new commitments added in early Q3 were not included in the June 30 figure.
- ARR is not annual revenue. Nebius defines ARR as revenue from the last month of the quarter multiplied by 12. It is a run-rate indicator, not the amount earned during the full year.
- Contracted power is not operating capacity. A signed power commitment can precede construction, grid connection, equipment installation and customer service. Active, connected and contracted power should be tracked separately.
- Adjusted EBITDA is not GAAP profit. The companies’ adjusted measures may exclude different items and cannot be treated as equivalent to net income or free cash flow.
These distinctions are why an investor should build a time-series comparison rather than pick the larger single figure.
Side-by-side operating snapshot
| Metric | Nebius | CoreWeave | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest period represented | Q4 2025 and year-end 2025; 2026 figures are targets | Q2 2026, quarter ended June 30, 2026 | The periods are not synchronized. |
| Revenue or run-rate | $1.25 billion ARR at year-end 2025; Q4 group revenue $228 million; Q4 core AI infrastructure revenue $214 million | Backlog of approximately $104 billion at June 30, 2026 | Nebius figures describe realized quarterly revenue and a run rate; CoreWeave’s figure describes contracted future revenue. |
| Growth disclosure | Core AI infrastructure Q4 revenue up 802% year over year | More than $25 billion of net new commitments added in early Q3, excluded from the June 30 backlog figure | Each figure has a different meaning and timing. |
| Active or connected power | Approximately 170 MW active at year-end 2025 | 1.5 GW active in Q2 2026 | Active power is the closest measure of currently energized operating capacity, but the dates differ. |
| Contracted power | Target of more than 3 GW by the end of 2026 | Approximately 3.7 GW in Q2 2026 | Nebius’s number is guidance; CoreWeave’s is a reported Q2 figure. |
| Connected-power target | Target of 800 MW to 1 GW by the end of 2026 | Not stated in the cited Q2 materials | Do not treat “not stated” as zero. |
| Adjusted EBITDA | Group adjusted EBITDA turned positive in Q4 2025; core AI infrastructure adjusted EBITDA margin 24% | $1.510 billion in Q2 2026; 59% adjusted EBITDA margin | Periods, scopes and adjustment policies differ. |
| Adjusted operating income | Not stated in the cited Q4 materials | $128 million, a 5% adjusted operating margin, in Q2 2026 | Operating income is after more costs than EBITDA, but this is still adjusted. |
| Adjusted net income or loss | Not stated in the cited Q4 materials | $567 million adjusted net loss, a 22% margin, in Q2 2026 | A large EBITDA figure can coexist with a net loss when depreciation, interest and other costs are high. |
| Cash and liquidity | Not stated in the cited Q4 materials | $5.524 billion cash and equivalents; $15.553 billion total liquidity at June 30, 2026 | Total liquidity includes facility availability and is not the same as cash or free cash flow. |
Nebius: high growth, earlier-stage execution
What Nebius has demonstrated
Nebius Group operates an AI cloud platform alongside other businesses and equity stakes. Its February 12, 2026 shareholder letter reported $1.25 billion ARR at year-end 2025, ahead of the company’s prior $900 million to $1.1 billion guidance range. Q4 group revenue was $228 million, of which $214 million came from core AI infrastructure. The company said that core business grew 802% year over year in the quarter.
The group also reported that adjusted EBITDA turned positive in Q4 2025. Within core AI infrastructure, the adjusted EBITDA margin was 24%. That is an encouraging sign that pricing, utilization or mix can produce contribution above infrastructure costs at current scale. It is not proof of a mature margin structure: the result is one quarter, it is adjusted, and the group includes activities beyond the core AI cloud.
Capacity and buildout plans
Nebius ended 2025 with approximately 170 MW of active power after deploying five new global locations and securing another nine. The distinction matters. “Deployed” locations contribute to operating footprint; “secured” locations may still require construction, grid work, equipment delivery or commissioning.
For the end of 2026, management set targets of $7 billion to $9 billion ARR, more than 3 GW contracted power and 800 MW to 1 GW connected power. The company said the vast majority of new capacity was expected to come from owned data centers. Owning more of the sites can give Nebius greater control over design, availability and infrastructure economics. It also places more construction, permitting, power-procurement and financing risk on the company.
What an investor must verify
- How much of the 2026 contracted power is energized and serving customers rather than reserved for future sites.
- Whether ARR growth is translating into recognized revenue at a similar pace, or whether implementation schedules create a long lag.
- Utilization and pricing by GPU generation, because rapid capacity growth can pressure rates if supply arrives ahead of demand.
- Capital sources for owned data centers, including debt, equipment financing and any equity issuance.
- Whether positive adjusted EBITDA persists after depreciation, interest, stock-based compensation and maintenance capital expenditure.
CoreWeave: larger current scale and heavy capital intensity
Backlog and operating footprint
CoreWeave reported approximately $104 billion of revenue backlog as of June 30, 2026. The company defines that measure as follows: “Revenue backlog includes remaining performance obligations, plus other amounts we estimate will be recognized as revenue in future periods under committed customer contracts, in each case, subject to the satisfaction of delivery and availability of service requirements.” This is company language, not an independent assurance that all of the amount will be realized.
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The release also said the figure excluded more than $25 billion in net new customer commitments added in early Q3. Backlog therefore provides visibility into contracted demand at a point in time, but it is sensitive to contract additions, cancellations, delivery schedules and the provider’s ability to bring sufficient capacity online.
CoreWeave reported 1.5 GW of active power and approximately 3.7 GW of total contracted power in Q2 2026. Active power is already energized operating capacity; contracted power includes capacity tied to future commitments and should not be read as equivalent to usable GPU inventory today.
Q2 2026 financial profile
For Q2 2026, CoreWeave reported $1.510 billion adjusted EBITDA, a 59% adjusted EBITDA margin, $128 million adjusted operating income, a 5% adjusted operating margin, and a $567 million adjusted net loss, a 22% margin. The combination shows why EBITDA alone is insufficient for an infrastructure investor: depreciation, interest and other items below EBITDA can leave the company loss-making even while gross operating economics look strong.
CoreWeave reported $5.524 billion of cash and cash equivalents and $15.553 billion of total liquidity at June 30, 2026. The latter includes availability under existing facilities. Liquidity can support construction and equipment purchases, but it is not the same as unrestricted cash, operating cash flow or free cash flow.
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CoreWeave’s Q2 2026 Form 10-Q reported $14.9 billion of net cash used in investing activities during the first half of 2026, compared with $3.9 billion in the first half of 2025. Cash paid for property and equipment was $14.1 billion in the first half of 2026.
The filing says investments are financed through debt and equity issuances, delayed-draw facilities, original-equipment-manufacturer financing and cash. It also warns that future capital needs may require significant additional debt and/or equity financing. New equity would dilute existing shareholders. Debt can avoid immediate dilution but increases interest expense, refinancing exposure and the amount of revenue that must be committed to fixed obligations.
Contract structure and concentration
CoreWeave’s FY2025 Form 10-K said committed contracts represented more than 98% of 2025 revenue. At December 31, 2025, weighted-average customer prepayments on active contracts were 15% to 25% of total contract value. Prepayments can improve funding and reduce collection risk, but they do not eliminate execution obligations: the provider still has to install, operate and maintain the contracted service.
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The 10-K identifies customer concentration, capital expenditure needs, limited suppliers, limited operating history at the current scale and changes in AI or high-performance-computing demand as risks. A concentrated contract book can be valuable for financing while leaving results exposed to a small number of counterparties, renegotiations or delayed deployments.
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Power is a useful proxy for data-center scale, but it is not a complete measure of compute delivered. Investors should keep four labels separate:
- Contracted power: power capacity secured through agreements or commitments, often for future delivery.
- Connected power: capacity physically connected to the grid or facility and able to progress toward operation.
- Active power: energized capacity being used by operating infrastructure.
- GPU availability: the actual accelerator inventory that can be allocated to customers, including generation, networking and readiness.
A provider can show rising contracted GW while active MW grows slowly if construction, interconnection, transformers, cooling systems, servers or networking are bottlenecks. Conversely, active power can rise without equivalent revenue if utilization is low or contracts have delayed start dates. Ask management for the conversion rate and time from each stage to the next.
Backlog, ARR and contract economics
Questions for CoreWeave’s backlog
- What percentage of the $104 billion is expected to be recognized in each future year?
- How much is subject to customer termination, capacity-delivery milestones or service-availability conditions?
- What share comes from the largest customers, and how concentrated are the remaining performance obligations?
- How do prepayments compare with the capital required before a contract begins producing revenue?
- What happens to margins if delivery dates slip or GPU prices decline during the contract term?
Questions for Nebius’s ARR targets
- How much of the $7 billion to $9 billion 2026 ARR target is supported by signed contracts versus pipeline?
- What monthly revenue level would be needed to produce the target, and when must capacity be online?
- How much ARR comes from the core AI infrastructure business versus other group activities?
- Are customers purchasing raw compute, managed services or a combination, and what are the gross margins for each?
For both companies, contract duration, take-or-pay provisions, minimum commitments, customer prepayments, renewal terms and cancellation rights are more informative than a headline total alone.
Profitability: read past adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA can help compare operating performance before financing and non-cash depreciation, but it omits costs that matter greatly in an AI infrastructure business. Servers and data-center systems lose value, debt carries interest, and new sites require continuing maintenance and upgrades. An investor should examine, in order:
- Revenue recognition: whether contracted demand is becoming reported revenue.
- Gross margin: whether GPU, power, networking and facility costs leave room for overhead.
- Adjusted EBITDA: a management-defined operating indicator, with every adjustment identified.
- Operating income: after depreciation and amortization, which reflect the cost of the asset base.
- Net income and interest burden: the portion left for shareholders after financing costs and other items.
- Operating cash flow and free cash flow: whether the business funds itself after working capital and essential capital expenditure.
Nebius’s 24% core AI infrastructure adjusted EBITDA margin in Q4 2025 and CoreWeave’s 59% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q2 2026 should not be ranked as if they were the same observation. They cover different periods, scales and adjustment policies. CoreWeave’s simultaneous $567 million adjusted net loss demonstrates the gap between EBITDA and shareholder earnings.
Financing, dilution and the cost of growth
AI cloud providers must spend before customers can consume capacity. The investment case improves when contracted revenue funds the buildout without repeatedly issuing stock or taking on debt at unfavorable terms.
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CoreWeave’s financing test
Against $14.1 billion of property-and-equipment cash spending in the first half of 2026, investors should reconcile operating cash generation, debt draws, equity proceeds, equipment financing and customer prepayments. The question is not whether the company can access capital once; it is whether each new financing round produces returns above its weighted cost of capital.
Nebius’s financing test
Nebius’s plan to build most new capacity in owned data centers may improve long-run control but requires funding before the targeted ARR arrives. Investors should monitor construction commitments, lease or ownership obligations, equipment orders, cash balances and any proposed equity issuance. A target that requires capital faster than revenue arrives can create dilution or leverage even if demand is genuine.
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A practical dilution calculation
When either company proposes an equity raise, compare the new shares with the existing diluted share count, then estimate how much incremental capacity and cash earnings the proceeds are expected to create. “Non-dilutive” equipment financing is not free: its interest, security interests and repayment schedule affect the cash available to equity holders.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Customer mix, platform value and moat
Scale alone does not establish a durable moat. An investor should determine whether customers stay because of scarce power and GPUs, superior scheduling and networking, managed software, data gravity, switching costs or simply temporary capacity shortage.
The available company materials do not provide a current, fully comparable customer-concentration table for both issuers. CoreWeave does disclose that committed contracts were over 98% of 2025 revenue and identifies concentration as a risk. Nebius’s cited Q4 letter does not provide an equivalent concentration measure here. Do not assume either business is diversified without a customer-by-customer disclosure.
Platform mix also matters. Raw GPU rental can grow quickly but may be more exposed to price competition. Managed AI services, orchestration, storage, networking and developer tooling can increase customer retention and revenue per cluster, though they add software and support costs. Ask each company to separate capacity revenue from higher-value platform services.
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Valuation: what cannot be concluded yet
Current market capitalization, enterprise value, share price, net debt, consensus estimates and analyst targets are not established in the cited materials. Consequently, it is not valid to say Nebius is cheaper, CoreWeave is overvalued, or either stock has better expected returns based only on the operating figures above.
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Once current market data is available, use consistent denominators:
| Valuation lens | Numerator | Denominator | Important caution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enterprise value to revenue | Equity value plus net debt and other claims | Recognized trailing or forward revenue | Do not substitute backlog or ARR for revenue without labeling the metric. |
| Enterprise value to EBITDA | Enterprise value | Consistently defined adjusted or GAAP EBITDA | Adjustment policies and capital intensity can make peers look falsely comparable. |
| Price to operating cash flow | Equity value | Operating cash flow | Working-capital swings and customer prepayments can distort one period. |
| Free-cash-flow yield | Cash flow available to investors | Equity value | Define maintenance versus growth capital expenditure carefully. |
For both providers, valuation should be stress-tested against lower GPU prices, slower utilization ramp, higher power costs, delayed sites, customer cancellations and more expensive financing.
Which investor profile fits each company?
CoreWeave may fit investors who value current scale
CoreWeave may appeal to investors who place greater weight on a reported Q2 2026 operating footprint, a large contracted backlog, substantial facility availability and evidence of customer prepayments. That preference comes with exposure to very high capital expenditure, debt and equity financing needs, customer concentration and the risk that backlog takes longer or costs more to convert than expected.
Nebius may fit investors who accept execution risk for growth
Nebius may appeal to investors who value rapid demonstrated growth, a positive Q4 adjusted EBITDA result in the core AI infrastructure business and the possibility of a much larger 2026 platform. The trade-off is that the $7 billion to $9 billion ARR objective and power targets are unachieved guidance, while the latest operating base was approximately 170 MW active power at year-end 2025.
Neither profile removes downside
Both businesses depend on continued AI and high-performance-computing demand, access to power and GPUs, reliable construction and financing markets. A strong order book does not protect shareholders if the cost of serving contracts consumes the economics, and a high growth rate does not protect them if new capacity cannot be funded or commissioned.
A due-diligence checklist before buying either stock
- Record the reporting date and definition beside every metric.
- Separate active, connected and contracted power in your model.
- Translate backlog or ARR into expected quarterly recognized revenue.
- Map the largest customers, contract duration, renewal terms and cancellation rights.
- Calculate capital expenditure per additional MW and per deployed GPU cluster.
- Reconcile adjusted EBITDA with operating income, net income and operating cash flow.
- List debt maturities, interest rates, covenants, equipment-financing obligations and available facilities.
- Model dilution under likely equity-raising scenarios.
- Stress-test utilization, GPU rental prices, power costs, construction delays and customer concentration.
- Compare enterprise value with realized revenue and cash generation only after obtaining current market data.
What to monitor in the next filings
- Nebius: actual 2026 ARR versus the $7 billion to $9 billion target; active and connected MW versus the 800 MW to 1 GW connected-power goal; revenue conversion; recurring adjusted EBITDA; capital commitments; and funding sources.
- CoreWeave: backlog recognized by quarter; new commitments and cancellations; active versus contracted GW; customer concentration; prepayment levels; net cash used in investing; property-and-equipment spending; debt and equity issuance; and the path from adjusted EBITDA to net income and free cash flow.
- Both: GPU availability by generation, utilization, service outages, power pricing, supplier concentration, contract profitability and evidence that growth is producing returns above the cost of capital.
Verdict
CoreWeave currently offers the clearer picture of a scaled AI cloud operator: its Q2 2026 disclosures show 1.5 GW active power, about 3.7 GW contracted power, a $104 billion backlog and substantial reported liquidity. Nebius presents the more ambitious growth case: it reached $1.25 billion ARR and positive group adjusted EBITDA at year-end 2025, with management targeting a far larger 2026 footprint. The evidence does not establish which stock is the better investment or which has greater expected return. Investors should choose only after comparing up-to-date valuation with contract quality, capacity actually in service, cash generation, financing needs and dilution risk.
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