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National Grid’s 5 October 2026 pre-close update points to FY2027 underlying earnings per share (EPS) growth slightly above its previous 13–15% range. The regional pattern is different: UK regulated operating profit should be broadly even across the year, while US regulated profit is expected to arrive disproportionately in the second half.
What National Grid changed in its FY2027 outlook
Management has not supplied a new numerical EPS percentage. Instead, it said FY2027 underlying EPS growth is now expected to be slightly above the previously stated 13–15% range for FY2026/27, the financial year ending in March 2027. That makes the October statement a positive trading indication rather than a replacement range with a new upper and lower bound.
The comparison starts with a FY2025/26 underlying EPS baseline of 78.0p. Applying the earlier 13–15% framework to that base implies the scale of growth investors were already expecting; the “slightly above” wording signals an improvement against that framework without specifying how many percentage points are involved.
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| Business area | Expected FY2027 profit timing | What drives the pattern | Effect on the group EPS profile |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK Electricity Transmission | Broadly evenly split between the first and second half | Higher allowed revenue as delivery steps up from RIIO-T2 to RIIO-T3 | Provides a steadier contribution through the year |
| UK Electricity Distribution | Broadly evenly split between the first and second half | Higher allowed revenue linked to the regulatory investment cycle | Supports a more even group earnings cadence |
| US regulated operations | Weighted to the second half | Regional regulatory and seasonal phasing; New England is normalising after a FY2026 one-off | More of the expected EPS delivery is back-loaded into H2 |
Why the UK contribution is described as steady
National Grid expects operating profit from both UK Electricity Transmission and UK Electricity Distribution to be broadly evenly divided across the fiscal year. “Evenly” does not mean identical quarterly results; it means the company is not expecting the pronounced first-half or second-half skew that can make annual guidance harder to track. The profile reflects the increase in allowed revenue as the regulated businesses move from the RIIO-T2 period into RIIO-T3 delivery.
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Why US profit is back-loaded
US regulated operating profit is expected to be weighted toward the second half. New England is returning to a more typical seasonal profile after a one-off effect in FY2026 from a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) return-on-equity judgement. Because that prior-year item affected the comparison, the FY2027 pattern should not be read as a simple repeat of FY2026’s timing. The company’s statement indicates a normalisation of seasonality, not a separately quantified change to the annual EPS target.
The numbers behind the growth framework
| Measure | Published figure | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Underlying EPS | 78.0p | FY2025/26 baseline |
| Underlying operating profit | £5,680 million | FY2025/26 reported figure |
| Capital investment | £11,576 million | FY2025/26 reported figure |
| Underlying EPS growth guidance | 13–15% | Earlier FY2026/27 framework; the 5 October update points to growth slightly above it |
| Five-year capital programme | At least £70 billion | Cumulative commitment over five years |
| Underlying EPS growth ambition | 8–10% CAGR | Five-year compound annual growth rate from the FY2025/26 baseline |
The longer-term plan links earnings growth to a substantial expansion in network investment. National Grid says the five-year programme includes at least £70 billion of cumulative capital spending and targets an 8–10% underlying EPS compound annual growth rate from FY2025/26. The October pre-close update is therefore best viewed within that multi-year framework: regulated revenue rises as projects move into the next price-control period, while annual results can still be affected by regional timing and one-off items.
What the UK-versus-US split means for reading the next results
- Do not treat the old range as the latest point estimate. The 13–15% figure is the previously stated guidance framework. “Slightly above” is newer, but it is not a quantified replacement range.
- Expect the UK businesses to provide the cleaner run-rate. Broadly even first-half and second-half operating profit should make the UK contribution less dependent on a single reporting period.
- Expect US earnings to build later. A first-half result that appears modest relative to the annual objective would not, by itself, contradict the company’s H2-weighted phasing.
- Separate recurring seasonality from the FY2026 comparison. The New England FERC return-on-equity judgement effect was a one-off factor in the prior year, so year-on-year movements may look unusual as it rolls out of the comparison.
Next checkpoint and remaining uncertainty
National Grid’s next scheduled checkpoint is its half-year results on 5 November 2026. Those results can change the picture if reported earnings, regulatory timing or management commentary differ from the pre-close indication. Until then, the most precise reading is that the company sees FY2027 underlying EPS growth slightly above 13–15%, with UK regulated profit broadly level through the year and US regulated profit concentrated more heavily in H2.
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