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A new study forecasts that large satellite megaconstellations could put trails in a substantial share of images from four space telescopes. In a scenario with about 560,000 satellites, the model estimates at least one trail in 39.6% of Hubble exposures and more than 92% of exposures from SPHEREx, ARRAKIHS and Xuntian. Those are conditional simulation results—not observations of a completed constellation or proof that astronomy and satellite networks cannot coexist.
What the study examined
Alejandro S. Borlaff, Pamela M. Marcum and Steve B. Howell modeled optical satellite trails in images from Hubble, SPHEREx, ARRAKIHS and Xuntian. Their paper, published in Nature on 3 December 2025 and updated with an author correction on 27 May 2026, estimated how often satellites would cross exposures under proposed constellation deployments and mission-specific observing constraints.
The authors describe the work as a first-order forecast for imaging. It addresses one measurable problem—satellite trails in telescope images—not every effect of satellite networks, the full costs and benefits of broadband, or what policy should be adopted. The paper says light contamination is a growing threat to space-telescope operations; it does not conclude that coexistence is impossible.
How many exposures could contain trails?
For the paper’s scenario of approximately 560,000 deployed satellites, the modeled chance of at least one trail and the average number of trails differ by telescope:
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| Telescope | Exposures with at least one trail | Average trails per exposure |
|---|---|---|
| Hubble | 39.6 ± 4.6% | 2.14 (−0.47/+0.46) |
| SPHEREx | More than 92% | 5.64 (−0.27/+0.28) |
| ARRAKIHS | More than 92% | 3.22 (−0.27/+0.27) |
| Xuntian | More than 92% | 92 (−10/+11) |
The first column answers whether an exposure is affected at all; the second describes the modeled average burden across exposures. They are not interchangeable: a high share of affected exposures does not mean every image contains the same number of trails.
Why the forecast varies by telescope
A satellite has to be in a telescope’s view during an exposure to leave a trail. The odds depend on more than the number of satellites: field of view, exposure duration, orbit altitude, the telescope’s pointing limits, and its orbit all matter. A wider field can include more satellites; Earth-avoidance and viewing-angle constraints can change which parts of the sky are observable. The paper’s analysis accounts for mission-specific constraints rather than applying one rate to every telescope.
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Xuntian has the highest modeled average, at 92 trails per exposure in this scenario. The authors connect its higher forecast in part to its lower orbit. The large differences in the table therefore should not be read as a simple ranking of telescope quality or as a prediction that every mission will experience a fixed trail count.
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The estimates depend on proposed constellation deployments and telescope configurations. The study’s constellation inputs were based on filings available through March 2025, and the approximately 560,000-satellite total is a scenario, not a count of satellites already in orbit. ARRAKIHS and Xuntian were still in development when the paper was prepared; their final designs and observing plans could change.
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The Nature paper models imaging observations. Its authors note that spectroscopy could be more severely affected, but that is a possibility they discuss, not an outcome quantified by the image forecast. Likewise, the study does not establish that every future constellation deployment would produce the same contamination rates.
Can space telescopes avoid satellite trails?
Not simply by being in space. A telescope may see satellites both above and below its own orbital altitude, depending on its Earth-limb avoidance angle, as the authors explain. Orbit and pointing restrictions can reduce exposure to some satellites, but they do not make a space observatory inherently immune to trails.
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The paper discusses measures aimed at prevention, avoidance and correction. These include limiting satellite reflectivity and flares, supporting observations that characterize contamination, sharing information about spacecraft reflectance, and improving orbital prediction and image correction. They are mitigation approaches, not a guarantee that all affected data can be restored.
How this fits the wider astronomy debate
The space-telescope forecast is one part of a broader issue. The National Academies’ Astro2020 survey says megaconstellation effects are noticeable for wide-field optical imaging and could become potentially severe for some programs, especially near-Earth-object searches, unless mitigated. That is broader context about observatories, not a result of the Nature paper’s space-telescope simulations.
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The American Astronomical Society’s COMPASSE overview distinguishes optical streaks from other concerns, including diffuse night-sky brightness and radio-frequency interference. These are different mechanisms; the Nature study at issue models optical trails in space-telescope images.
There is also a public-benefit trade-off: satellite broadband may serve communities with limited connectivity, while satellite networks can impose costs on astronomy and other areas. A 2021 SATCON2 community report discussed broadband benefits, alternatives such as fiber, and social costs including debris and environmental effects. Its market figures and projections reflect its 2021 date, not current pricing or fleet conditions. The study does not resolve how those societal trade-offs should be weighed.
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