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Neither historical LEGO appreciation nor an index fund’s market exposure guarantees a good outcome. The published LEGO studies do not provide one directly comparable return estimate: they cover different periods, samples and portfolio methods. One reports a 1.20% annual real return for a broad, value-weighted LEGO index from 1966–2018, while another reports at least 11% average annual return (8% after inflation) for a different sample from 1987–2015.
For a real decision, compare what you can actually realize after buying, storing and selling a physical set with the market risk, diversification, liquidity and fund costs of an index fund. A quoted collectible price is not the same as cash received after transaction costs, and neither study establishes that any currently sold set is a sound investment.
What the published LEGO studies actually measured
Historical estimates are useful context, but they are not a forecast for a set you can buy today. The two frequently cited studies use different dates, samples, weighting and model assumptions, so their percentages should not be averaged or treated as competing measurements of the same portfolio.
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| Study | Period and sample | Reported result | How to read it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shanaev, Shimkus, Ghimire and Sharma, Journal of Risk Finance, published November 30, 2020 | 10,588 sets, 1966–2018 | 1.20% annual inflation-adjusted return for a survivorship-bias-adjusted, value-weighted LEGO index; 5.54% annual inflation-adjusted return for equities in the comparison | A broad historical index construction, not the return of a particular set or a prediction for future buyers |
| Dobrynskaya and Kishilova, Research in International Business and Finance, 2022 | LEGO sample, 1987–2015 | At least 11% average return per year, reported as 8% in real terms; 4%–5% multifactor alpha and a 0.4 Sharpe ratio | Results from a different sample and model; alpha and Sharpe ratio are model-dependent metrics, not net cash returns |
The 2020 paper also reports that including a 5%–25% LEGO allocation in a diversified portfolio was beneficial for investors with varying risk aversion in its analysis. That is a result of that paper’s model and assumptions, not a recommended allocation for every reader.
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Why the estimates differ so much
The records available for these studies do not reconcile every difference in portfolio construction, price collection, sample selection or treatment of costs. The 1966–2018 result is inflation-adjusted, value-weighted and adjusted for survivorship bias. The 1987–2015 paper reports a higher average for its own sample and also presents factor-based statistics. Different start and end dates can capture different LEGO release cycles and collector markets; weighting can make expensive or popular sets matter more or less; and a quoted secondary-market price may omit the cost and delay of selling.
Consequently, it is inaccurate to write simply that “LEGO returns 11%.” The defensible statement is that Dobrynskaya and Kishilova reported at least 11% average annual return, or 8% in real terms, for their 1987–2015 sample, while Shanaev and colleagues reported 1.20% real annual return for their 1966–2018 index. Neither figure is a guarantee.
Do LEGO sets appreciate in value?
Some retired sets have sold for more than their original price, and both studies found positive historical results for their chosen samples. That does not mean every set appreciates, that appreciation is steady, or that a buyer can sell at the price shown in a listing. Demand can be concentrated in particular themes, editions, conditions and locations, and the time needed to find a buyer is part of the investment outcome.
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Listed price versus realized return
A marketplace listing or an estimated collectible value is an asking or reference price. Your realized result depends on the price a buyer actually pays, whether the set is complete and authentic, how long the sale takes, and every cost incurred along the way. A simple net-proceeds calculation is:
net proceeds = sale price − selling fees − shipping and packing − taxes or other transaction costs
Your investment basis should include the purchase price and acquisition costs, plus storage, insurance or restoration expenses that you actually incur. Compare the resulting net gain or loss with the holding period; a total percentage gain over several years is not an annual return. The available studies do not quantify contemporary resale fees, storage costs or the hours required to manage listings, so those items must be estimated for your own market rather than borrowed from a published percentage.
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The older-set liquidity finding
Shanaev and colleagues describe a liquidity effect in which older sets in their sample had higher returns. This is an observed relationship in that dataset, not a rule that every older set will be easier to sell or more profitable. Age can coexist with scarcity, condition problems and a smaller pool of buyers. Treat it as a research finding to investigate, not as a buying signal.
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How index funds work
An index is a rules-based basket or benchmark of securities; it is not itself an investment you can buy. An index fund is a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund that seeks to track such an index. A fund may use full replication, holding the securities in the index, or sampling, holding a representative subset. The fund vehicle determines how you buy, sell and bear expenses, while the tracked index determines the underlying exposure.
Index funds are not risk-free
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy explains in its Investor Bulletin: Index Funds (August 6, 2018) that “Fees and expenses reduce the value of your investment return.” The bulletin is U.S. investor education, not a universal rulebook for every jurisdiction. It also identifies general investment risk, limited flexibility, tracking error and potential underperformance caused by fees, expenses, trading costs and tracking error.
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An index fund can fall when the securities in its index fall. A fund tracking a narrow sector, country or theme can be much less diversified than a broad-market fund. Even a broad fund will not match its index perfectly: expenses, portfolio changes, trading, cash balances, sampling and market frictions create a difference between index performance and investor performance.
What to inspect in a specific fund
- Tracked index: Identify the securities, weighting rules, rebalancing schedule and geographic or sector concentration.
- Fund structure: Confirm whether it is an exchange-traded fund or mutual fund, how it is bought and sold, and what dealing rules apply in your jurisdiction.
- Expenses and other costs: Read the current prospectus and fee disclosures. A stated expense ratio is only one part of the cost of owning and trading a fund.
- Tracking difference: Compare the fund’s historical results with the index after expenses; do not assume the difference is zero.
- Liquidity and dealing: Check the trading venue, dealing frequency and the fund’s ability to handle subscriptions and redemptions.
LEGO sets vs. index funds: which has better returns?
The evidence does not establish a universal winner. The LEGO estimates are historical collectible-market results from different studies, while an index fund delivers the performance of a chosen securities index minus implementation costs. A fair comparison must use the same currency, inflation convention, period, taxes and all-in costs, and it must compare money you can actually realize.
| Decision factor | LEGO sets | Index funds |
|---|---|---|
| Return evidence | Published estimates range from 1.20% annual real return for a 1966–2018 value-weighted index to at least 11% average annual return (8% real) for a 1987–2015 sample. Methods and periods differ. | Return follows the selected securities index, less fund and trading costs. No particular return is guaranteed. |
| What you own | Physical, set-specific collectibles whose value depends on condition, completeness, authenticity, scarcity and buyer demand. | A fund interest representing a portfolio of securities. The basket and concentration depend on the index. |
| Liquidity | You need a secondary-market buyer; selling speed and price are uncertain. The 2020 paper’s older-set liquidity effect is a sample finding. | Liquidity and dealing depend on the fund structure, market and underlying securities; they are not identical for every fund. |
| Costs | Purchase price, shipping, storage, damage or condition loss, packing, selling fees and other transaction costs. Contemporary amounts are not established by the cited studies. | Fund expenses, trading costs, bid-ask or dealing costs where applicable, and tracking difference. Check the specific prospectus and disclosures. |
| Diversification | Often concentrated in a small number of themes or sets unless you deliberately build a wide collection. The 5%–25% portfolio result is model-specific. | Can provide broad diversification, but a narrow index can be concentrated. Holdings and weights must be checked. |
| Work and custody | Requires selection, purchase, inspection, secure storage, inventory records and eventual selling. The studies do not measure hours or storage expense. | Administration is handled by the fund, although you still choose, monitor and trade it and must understand account and tax rules. |
| Primary risks | Set-specific demand, illiquidity, condition damage, authenticity or missing-part issues, and uncertain exit price. | Market declines in the underlying securities, concentration, tracking error, fees, trading frictions and fund-structure risks. |
How to evaluate a LEGO purchase without treating it as a guaranteed investment
- Set the objective and horizon. Decide whether the purchase is primarily for building and collecting, potential resale, or a speculative allocation. Define when you might need the money; a collectible that cannot be sold promptly may not meet a short deadline.
- Record the all-in acquisition cost. Save the invoice and include delivery, taxes and any accessories or restoration needed to make the set saleable. Do not compare a retail sticker price with a gross resale listing.
- Verify condition and completeness. Document whether the box, instructions, minifigures, parts and seals are present, and record wear or alterations. Condition affects the pool of buyers and the achievable price.
- Use completed-sale evidence where available. Distinguish completed transactions from unsold listings. Check whether the prices are for the same edition, region and condition; do not assume a high outlier is typical.
- Plan custody. Choose a dry, secure location and keep an inventory. Consider how heat, moisture, crushing, sunlight, theft or loss would affect value. Include any insurance or storage cost in your calculation.
- Model an exit. Estimate a conservative sale price, a slower sale, and a lower-price case. Subtract selling, packing, shipping and tax costs. If the result only works at an optimistic asking price, it is not a robust investment case.
- Compare with a relevant benchmark. Use the same holding period and inflation treatment when comparing a collectible outcome with a fund. A published LEGO index is not automatically the correct benchmark for one set.
- Limit concentration. Decide how much loss or illiquidity you could tolerate before buying. The historical 5%–25% allocation result from one study should not be converted into a personal target without considering your complete finances.
How to assess an index fund for the same goal
- Define the exposure. Choose the market, region, company size or asset class you actually want. A fund that tracks a narrow index may not deliver the diversification you expect.
- Read the prospectus and current disclosures. Confirm the objective, index methodology, holdings, rebalancing, replication or sampling method, dealing rules and principal risks.
- Calculate all-in cost. Include the fund’s ongoing expenses and the costs of buying, selling, converting currency or maintaining the account where relevant. The SEC’s warning about fees reducing returns applies to the difference between a gross index result and your net result.
- Check tracking quality. Look at the historical gap between the fund and its index and understand whether expenses, sampling, cash or trading explain it. Past tracking does not guarantee future tracking.
- Test concentration. Review the largest holdings, sectors and countries. “Index fund” describes a method, not a promise of broad diversification.
- Match the time horizon and risk capacity. Equity funds can lose value over periods that matter to you. Keep near-term spending needs separate from assets whose value can fluctuate.
- Confirm local rules. The SEC bulletin is U.S.-focused. Tax treatment, investor protections, fund labels and dealing arrangements differ elsewhere, so use the disclosures and regulations that apply where you live.
Risk, liquidity and effort in real use
Collectible-market risk
With a set, the risk is concentrated: one theme can lose favor, a box can be damaged, or a buyer can dispute completeness. You may also have to accept a lower price to sell quickly. A historical average hides the dispersion between successful and unsuccessful sets and the periods when no convenient buyer is available.
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Market and implementation risk
With an index fund, the main value change comes from the underlying securities. Diversification can spread company-specific risk but cannot remove market risk. Fees, trading costs, sampling and tracking error reduce the result relative to the benchmark, and a narrow index can recreate concentration in a different form.
Liquidity is not simply “easy” or “hard”
A fund may be tradable during market hours, but actual liquidity depends on its structure, the venue and the underlying assets. A LEGO set may have an active collector audience yet still require listing, negotiation, packing and delivery. Compare the time and certainty needed to turn each holding into cash, not just whether a price appears on a screen.
What the 5%–25% LEGO portfolio result does and does not mean
In the 2020 analysis, adding a 5%–25% LEGO allocation to a diversified portfolio was beneficial for investors with varying risk aversion. The result belongs to that paper’s return series, portfolio assumptions and risk preferences. It does not identify a universally optimal percentage, establish that the relationship will persist, or account for your taxes, storage, transaction costs and ability to sell.
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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchIf you are considering collectibles alongside funds, treat the allocation as a risk-budget decision. Ask whether you could hold the sets through a long period without a buyer, whether a loss would affect essential spending, and whether the rest of your portfolio already contains the diversification you need. A qualified adviser can address personal suitability; the historical study cannot.
Common mistakes when comparing the two
- Combining incompatible averages: Do not blend the 1.20% real result for 1966–2018 with the 11% nominal-or-real-distinguished result for 1987–2015 into one LEGO rate.
- Calling a listing a return: Use completed sale proceeds and subtract every relevant cost.
- Ignoring inflation: Label figures as nominal or real and keep that convention consistent.
- Assuming age guarantees liquidity: The older-set finding is statistical evidence from one sample, not a promise about a specific retired set.
- Calling alpha a cash yield: The reported 4%–5% multifactor alpha and 0.4 Sharpe ratio depend on the model and factors; they are not equivalent to a net annual return.
- Assuming an index fund matches its index exactly: Expenses, trading, sampling and tracking error create a gap.
- Assuming “index” means diversified: Read the index’s holdings and weighting rules instead of relying on the label.
- Using U.S. guidance as global law: The SEC bulletin is U.S. investor education; local fund, tax and consumer-protection rules may differ.
- Buying a current set because a historical study sounds favorable: Neither study identifies a currently sold model or recommends one.
A practical decision checklist
Before committing money, write down the answers to these questions:
- What is the purpose of this money and when might I need it?
- Am I comparing a collectible’s net, realized proceeds with a fund’s net, after-cost result over the same period?
- What assumptions am I making about sale price, selling time, inflation, taxes, fees and damage?
- How concentrated is the LEGO holding or the fund’s tracked index?
- Could I tolerate a prolonged period without a buyer or a market decline?
- What records will prove condition, ownership and cost basis?
- Which costs are known, and which are estimates because the available studies do not quantify them?
- Does the decision fit my jurisdiction’s tax, trading and investor-protection rules?
These questions turn a headline return into a decision about realized cash, risk and suitability. Historical LEGO results can show that collectible returns have existed; they cannot tell you what your next set will earn. An index fund can provide efficient exposure to a chosen market index, but it still carries market risk and fund-specific costs.
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