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Possibly—but the bullish case depends on growth assumptions, not a low headline valuation. In a report covered by Benzinga on October 5, 2026, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas argued that SpaceX’s expected growth makes its valuation look more attractive than its headline multiple suggests. Morningstar’s June 2026 analysis reached a much more cautious conclusion. Neither view establishes what SpaceX shares are worth today: the figures below are dated analyst estimates, not a live quote or consensus.
What is the case that SpaceX stock is cheap?
Jonas’s argument is that comparing companies by valuation multiples alone can miss how quickly their earnings are expected to grow. SpaceX looked expensive on one measure in his analysis, but comparatively inexpensive after the multiple was adjusted for forecast growth. That conclusion depends on forecasts—especially for AI computing—and should not be mistaken for a claim that SpaceX is cheap by every conventional measure.
Benzinga reported that Jonas’s October 5 note was titled “Cheap and Getting Cheaper” and reiterated an Overweight rating. The report also disclosed that Morgan Stanley had co-managed a SpaceX offering in the preceding year and received investment banking fees from the company. That relationship is relevant context for readers weighing the bullish view.
How the two valuations differ
The estimates below use different dates, methods and price contexts. They are not simultaneous targets, and the Morningstar figure is not a current forecast.
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| Measure | Morgan Stanley view, as reported by Benzinga | Morningstar view |
|---|---|---|
| Date and approach | October 5, 2026; growth-adjusted valuation and sum-of-the-parts analysis. | June 2026; probability-weighted discounted cash flow analysis. |
| Price context and valuation | Used a $159 reference price and reported a $300 price target. | Estimated fair value at $63 per share, compared with a then-upcoming $135 offering price. Morningstar described its estimate as a 53% discount to that offering price. |
| Valuation multiples | Estimated roughly 30 times 2028 EV/EBIT for SpaceX, compared with roughly 16 times for a selected group of mega-cap AI enablers. Adjusted for expected growth, the reported comparison was about 0.3 times for SpaceX versus a 0.5-times group median; at Jonas’s target, the adjusted multiple would be about 0.6 times. | Did not use the same growth-adjusted multiple comparison; its estimate depended on probability-weighted scenarios. |
| Key assumptions and uncertainty | AI-compute growth and pricing, connectivity and Starship execution. Jonas’s analysis assigned substantial value to enterprise AI. | Assigned a 7% probability to its optimistic “Moonshot” scenario, which depended on commercially competitive orbital data centers and rapidly reusable Starship. |
EV/EBIT compares enterprise value with earnings before interest and taxes. A growth-adjusted multiple also accounts for expected growth, but the result is only as dependable as the forecasts and peer group behind it. A lower growth-adjusted figure does not mean the shares are inexpensive if projected growth fails to arrive.
What Jonas’s sum-of-the-parts model assumes
As Benzinga described the Morgan Stanley analysis, at the cited share-price reference the market-implied value of the space and connectivity businesses was about $127 per share, leaving about $32 per share attributed to AI in that framing. Jonas’s own model assigned enterprise AI $165 per share after a 50% execution-risk discount. These are components of an analyst model, not independently verified values for separate businesses.
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The same report said a $10-per-watt increase in one consensus compute-pricing assumption could add more than $40 billion to consensus revenue. That is a sensitivity in the analyst’s model, not promised revenue: actual results would depend on pricing, deployment, capacity and customer demand.
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Morningstar’s lower estimate reflects a different question: how much is the business worth when uncertain outcomes are assigned explicit probabilities? In its June 2026 report, Morningstar said the offering price implied a much greater likelihood of the optimistic scenario than the firm was prepared to assign. The estimate is therefore a probability-weighted valuation under Morningstar’s assumptions—not a claim that the shares must trade at that level.
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The firm’s analysis treated two important challenges as unresolved: making Starship rapidly reusable and building orbital data centers that could compete commercially. Morningstar did not expect either question to be resolved before 2028 in that analysis. If those milestones prove technically achievable and economically attractive, the cautious scenario weights could look too conservative; if not, a valuation that relies on them could be too optimistic.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What could change the investment case?
AI-compute economics
Track whether SpaceX can deploy computing capacity and secure customers at prices that support the revenue assumptions in bullish models. Compute pricing and deployment were identified by Jonas as variables that could materially change even near-term revenue estimates. A large market opportunity alone does not establish profitable demand.
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Starship progress
Jonas viewed a successful Starship ship catch as a possible major positive catalyst, according to Benzinga’s October 5 account. That was a forecast about a potential event, not evidence that the milestone had occurred. Reusability matters to the thesis because it could affect launch costs and the feasibility of ambitious future plans; technical success would still need to translate into reliable, economical operations.
Capital needs and execution setbacks
Benzinga’s account also described a downside scenario involving slower AI progress, a serious Starship test setback or a dilutive capital raise. These are distinct risks: slower commercialization can weaken expected growth, a test failure can delay milestones, and issuing shares can reduce existing investors’ ownership percentage.
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Connectivity and the spectrum deal
Axios reported on October 9, 2026, that SpaceX had announced a deal to acquire nationwide low-band spectrum connected to its mobile ambitions. Spectrum could help reach places where satellite service struggles, including indoors, but spectrum alone does not supply the physical network infrastructure needed for broad terrestrial wireless coverage. Bernstein analyst Madison Rezaei told Axios, “Buying spectrum is not a commitment to build a nationwide network,” while saying the acquisition made that option more credible and less expensive. SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell told Axios, “I anticipate us to be able to acquire quite a few of their customers because I think our service will be better.” Those statements describe an opportunity and an expectation, not proof of a successful nationwide service.
Quick Recap
How to judge the claim for yourself
- Check the date and price basis. The cited reports use historical reference prices; none supplies a verified live share price as of October 13, 2026.
- Separate the business lines. Ask how much value the case assigns to established space and connectivity operations versus future AI and Starship outcomes.
- Test the assumptions. Consider what happens to a valuation if compute prices, deployment pace, reusable-launch economics or capital requirements fall short.
- Use a margin of safety. A target price is an analyst’s estimate under a particular method, not a guarantee that the market will reach it.
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