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Michigan has the sharper overall export-concentration risk. Transportation equipment represented about 43% of Michigan’s 2024 goods exports—approximately $27 billion—and Canada absorbed $23.2 billion, or 39% of the state’s goods exports, in 2025. A tariff, North American demand shock, or disruption in vehicle production can therefore affect a large share of Michigan’s export economy at once.

Iowa is less dependent on one manufactured sector or one foreign market. Its 2025 export leaders were food and kindred products ($3.5 billion), machinery except electrical ($3.3 billion), chemicals ($2.8 billion), transportation equipment ($969 million), and computer/electronic products ($678 million). That diversification lowers single-industry risk, but Iowa has substantial agricultural exposure: USDA estimated $13.5 billion in domestic agricultural exports in 2023, led by soybeans, pork, corn, feed grains, and soybean meal. The practical answer depends on the shock: Michigan is more vulnerable to concentrated auto and Canada exposure; Iowa is more vulnerable to farm-commodity prices, disease, and agricultural trade barriers.

What “exposed to export declines” means

Exposure is not the same as an export decline that has already happened. The available state data show the size of export industries, their concentration, and their destination markets; they do not by themselves forecast next year’s growth or contraction.

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For this comparison, an industry is more exposed when a fall in foreign sales would affect a large share of the state’s exports, when customers are concentrated in a few countries, when tariffs or retaliation can block market access, or when production depends on cross-border supply chains that are difficult to reroute. Four tests are useful:

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  • Industry concentration: Does one sector account for an unusually large share of goods exports?
  • Destination concentration: Would a problem in Canada, Mexico, China, or another major market remove a large block of demand?
  • Commodity and policy sensitivity: Are prices, disease conditions, quotas, or retaliatory tariffs likely to change sales quickly?
  • Supply-chain depth and customer substitution: Can producers switch buyers and inputs, or are they tied to an integrated production network?

On the first two tests Michigan is more concentrated. Iowa has greater direct farm-export exposure on the third test. Michigan’s integrated automotive network creates scale and specialized capabilities, but also makes a North American disruption transmit rapidly through assemblers, parts suppliers, logistics companies, and industrial employers.

Michigan’s main export vulnerabilities

Transportation equipment is the dominant concentration risk

Michigan goods exports totaled about $62 billion in 2024, according to MichAuto/SEMCOG and the International Trade Administration. Transportation equipment accounted for roughly 43%, or approximately $27 billion. Vehicles and vehicle parts together exceeded $25 billion in 2024 in the MichAuto analysis.

That share means an auto-sector decline is not a narrow manufacturing problem. It can reduce orders for stamping, plastics, electronics, glass, tooling, logistics, engineering, and maintenance suppliers. Plants may also cut overtime, postpone capital spending, or reduce inventories before a decline appears in annual export totals.

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The U.S. Trade Representative’s 2025 state profile measured Michigan’s transportation-equipment exports at $25.2 billion. The 2024 share estimate and the 2025 dollar figure come from different years and statistical presentations, so they should not be treated as contradictory. Together they show that transportation equipment remains Michigan’s largest export cluster by a wide margin.

Canada is a large single-country exposure

Michigan exported $23.2 billion in goods to Canada in 2025, equal to 39% of total goods exports. Canada’s proximity supports efficient cross-border movement of vehicles, engines, parts, machinery, food, and other products, but the same concentration can magnify a policy or demand shock.

A tariff dispute, border delay, Canadian recession, currency movement, or change in vehicle purchasing could affect Michigan exporters faster than a comparable shock in a distant, less integrated market. Mexico-linked auto supply chains add another layer: components can cross the border multiple times, so a tariff or customs delay can raise the cost of a finished vehicle even when final demand has not changed.

Secondary manufacturing sectors broaden the risk beyond autos

USTR’s 2025 figures identify four significant Michigan sectors after transportation equipment:

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Michigan export sector 2025 exports What can drive a decline
Transportation equipment $25.2 billion Vehicle demand, tariffs, parts availability, financing conditions, and North American production disruptions
Chemicals $5.5 billion Industrial and consumer demand, energy and feedstock costs, and restrictions on chemical trade
Machinery $5.1 billion Business investment cycles, construction and farm equipment demand, and capital-goods tariffs
Electrical equipment $4.3 billion Electronics and industrial-equipment demand, component availability, and supply-chain delays
Computers and electronics $2.7 billion Technology investment, component sourcing, and changes in global electronics demand

These sectors provide some diversification, but many sell into the same industrial cycle. A North American manufacturing slowdown can therefore depress several categories simultaneously rather than leaving the rest of Michigan’s export base untouched.

Agriculture, food, and forest products are smaller but not insulated

Michigan’s agriculture, food, and forest-product exports totaled $2.9 billion in 2024, according to the Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development. Leading markets included Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and China. The mix gives Michigan more destination variety than its auto trade alone, yet these products remain exposed to retaliatory tariffs, shipping costs, and changes in overseas food demand.

Michigan Executive Directive 2026-2, issued April 2, 2026, describes the transmission channels directly: “Those reports revealed that tariffs increased the price of raw materials, raised production costs, and restricted market access for our products.” The directive also says retaliatory tariffs hurt Michigan exporters, “particularly in agriculture.” These are mechanisms of potential damage, not proof that every tariff produces the same state-wide result.

Iowa’s main export vulnerabilities

A broader manufactured export base

Iowa’s 2025 USTR profile is spread across several major categories rather than dominated by one sector:

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Iowa export sector 2025 exports Exposure pattern
Food and kindred products $3.5 billion Foreign food demand, sanitary rules, tariffs, and agricultural input costs
Machinery except electrical $3.3 billion Farm and industrial investment cycles, capital-goods tariffs, and component costs
Chemicals $2.8 billion Industrial demand, energy and feedstock prices, and trade restrictions
Transportation equipment $969 million Commercial and farm-equipment demand, parts supply, and customer investment
Computer and electronic products $678 million Technology demand, component sourcing, and production-network changes

Food, machinery, and chemicals together are much larger than transportation equipment in Iowa’s 2025 profile. A downturn in one category can be serious for affected companies and communities, but it is less likely to remove nearly half of the state’s goods exports at once.

Agriculture is Iowa’s largest concentrated economic exposure

The Iowa 2025 Official Register, citing USDA, reported an estimate of $13.5 billion in Iowa domestic agricultural exports for 2023. The leading products were:

Product 2023 export value Typical shock channels
Soybeans $3.6 billion Import restrictions, harvest size, global prices, and competition from other origins
Pork $2.8 billion Animal disease, food-safety rules, tariffs, and consumer demand
Corn $2.2 billion Crop conditions, feed and fuel demand, prices, and trade barriers
Feeds and feed grains $1.7 billion Livestock cycles, feed demand, freight costs, and foreign competition
Soybean meal $953 million Livestock demand, crushing margins, substitute feed ingredients, and import policy

A decline in overseas agricultural sales can spread beyond farms. Lower prices or volumes reduce revenue for grain elevators, processors, feed mills, fertilizer and equipment dealers, trucking firms, ports, and rural lenders. Disease can affect pork demand directly, while a policy decision by a large buyer can alter soybean or corn prices even when Iowa’s production has not changed.

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The $13.5 billion USDA agricultural estimate should not be added to Iowa’s Commerce goods-export totals. USDA agricultural estimates and Commerce goods statistics use different definitions and methodologies; combining them would overstate the state’s exports.

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Canada still matters to Iowa

Iowa exported $5.0 billion in goods to Canada in 2024, approximately 30% of its goods exports. That is a meaningful destination concentration, although lower than Michigan’s 39% share in 2025. Canadian demand matters for Iowa food, machinery, chemicals, and manufactured products, while cross-border logistics affect delivery times and input costs.

Iowa’s exposure is therefore diversified by industry but not immune to a Canada-centered shock. A trade measure that affects farm products and machinery at the same time could reach several Iowa export clusters, even if no single manufactured sector dominates the state.

Michigan versus Iowa by type of shock

If tariffs target vehicles, parts, or industrial inputs

Michigan would generally be hit harder first. Transportation equipment is its largest export category, and vehicle production relies on parts and materials moving through Canada, Mexico, and the United States. Tariffs can raise the landed cost of components, force suppliers to change sourcing, and make vehicles less competitive in foreign markets. The effect can cascade through multiple tiers before an annual export statistic records the full change.

Iowa would still feel the effect through machinery, chemicals, electronics, and farm equipment. Higher steel, chemicals, electronics, or freight costs can reduce margins for Iowa manufacturers and raise the cost of equipment purchased by farms. Its more distributed export mix, however, provides some offset if food or another sector remains strong.

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If retaliation targets farm products

Iowa would generally face the larger direct exposure. Soybeans, pork, corn, feed grains, and soybean meal make up a large agricultural export base, and foreign tariffs or import restrictions can redirect supplies into the domestic market, lower producer prices, or leave processors with excess inventory.

Michigan agriculture would also be affected. The state’s agriculture, food, and forest-product exports reached $2.9 billion in 2024, and the executive directive specifically identifies agriculture as particularly harmed by retaliatory tariffs. In absolute export concentration, though, Iowa’s farm mix is the more substantial vulnerability.

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If Canada’s economy or border access weakens

Michigan has the greater immediate risk because Canada took 39% of its 2025 goods exports and is tightly connected to the state’s auto production system. Border delays can interrupt just-in-time parts flows as well as finished-vehicle sales.

Iowa’s 30% Canada share is lower, but the impact would span food, machinery, chemicals, and other products. A disruption could therefore be broad even without a single Iowa industry absorbing Michigan-sized losses.

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If global capital-goods demand falls

Both states would be exposed. Michigan’s machinery, electrical equipment, computers, and chemicals are tied to industrial investment and manufacturing demand. Iowa’s machinery and chemicals face similar cycles, while weaker farm income can reduce purchases of tractors, equipment, and inputs.

Michigan’s concentration makes the downside more synchronized: autos and several supplier industries can contract together. Iowa’s mix gives it more opportunities for one category to cushion another, although a farm recession can weaken both agricultural exports and machinery demand at the same time.

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Why supply chains make Michigan’s risk sharper

Auto production is not simply a final-product export. Engines, transmissions, batteries, electronics, castings, stamped parts, and other components may cross borders before a vehicle reaches a customer. A tariff or customs delay at one point can increase costs throughout the chain. Suppliers that cannot quickly qualify a new customer or redesign a component may have fewer alternatives than a commodity exporter selling a standardized crop to several buyers.

That integration also creates benefits. Large plants, specialized suppliers, engineering skills, and established logistics can help Michigan compete for future contracts. The same fixed network creates operating leverage: when vehicle output falls, utilization and orders can decline across many connected businesses.

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Iowa’s agricultural supply chain has a different form of interdependence. Farms, elevators, crushers, feed mills, meat processors, railroads, and truckers depend on volume, but crops and processed commodities can often be redirected among buyers more readily than a vehicle-specific component. The trade-off is price sensitivity: redirected grain or pork may still sell, but at a lower margin when foreign demand disappears.

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How tariffs transmit into state economies

  1. Input costs rise. A tariff on metals, chemicals, electronics, machinery, or packaging increases the cost of materials used by exporters.
  2. Production costs rise. Companies may pay more for components, freight, compliance, inventory, and substitute suppliers.
  3. Foreign access is restricted. The exporter’s product becomes more expensive in the destination market, or retaliation blocks it outright.
  4. Prices and volumes adjust. Firms may absorb the cost, raise prices, reduce output, change product mix, or seek another customer.
  5. Local spillovers follow. Lower orders affect wages, overtime, investment, transportation, processors, and suppliers.

The relative effect depends on who pays the tariff, how easily inputs can be substituted, whether competitors face the same charge, and how quickly the exporter can find another market. Export value alone cannot determine the final employment or income effect.

Which state would get hit harder?

For a broad export shock centered on autos, Canada, Mexico, or cross-border manufacturing, Michigan is the more exposed state. Its 43% transportation-equipment share and 39% Canada share create the highest combined concentration in this comparison. The $25.2 billion USTR transportation-equipment figure for 2025 reinforces the scale of that dependence.

For a shock centered on agricultural retaliation, crop prices, livestock disease, or restrictions on farm commodities, Iowa is more exposed. Its $13.5 billion in 2023 domestic agricultural exports and large soybean, pork, corn, feed-grain, and soybean-meal flows connect foreign demand directly to farm and rural-business income.

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For a diversified global slowdown, neither state is insulated. Iowa has more sectoral spread, while Michigan has greater industrial scale and a deeper integrated supply chain. The likely winner on resilience depends on whether companies can replace customers, substitute inputs, and maintain production while trade conditions change.

How to verify an actual export decline

To measure realized declines rather than exposure, use a consistent state-and-partner series. Census state trade data are available by six-digit Harmonized System product, four-digit NAICS industry, partner country, and monthly or annual period. The International Trade Administration’s State TradeStats Express provides state-by-partner data at NAICS two-, three-, and four-digit levels.

  1. Choose one measure. Decide whether the analysis uses NAICS industry exports or HS product exports. Do not mix them in the same ranking.
  2. Choose the period. Compare the same months or full calendar years, and label whether the figures are nominal dollars or inflation-adjusted.
  3. Choose the partner scope. Run a total-world series and separate Canada, Mexico, China, and other major markets.
  4. Keep the origin definition constant. State trade statistics can use an origin-of-movement concept; changing definitions between years can create a false trend.
  5. Calculate the change. Use (current-period exports − prior-period exports) ÷ prior-period exports × 100 for the year-over-year percentage.
  6. Check concentration. Calculate each industry’s share of state exports and each partner’s share of total exports before ranking risks.
  7. Interpret carefully. Separate dollar declines caused by lower quantities from those caused by prices, exchange rates, or product reclassification.

Census TIPS links traded products to industries and offers 2021–2023 export files, but it labels that product-to-industry linkage experimental. Use it as a supplementary classification tool, not as a reason to combine incompatible totals.

Data qualifications that change the comparison

  • The 43% Michigan transportation-equipment share and approximately $27 billion value refer to 2024 goods exports; USTR’s $25.2 billion transportation-equipment figure refers to 2025. They describe different years and reporting frameworks.
  • Michigan’s $23.2 billion Canada figure is for 2025, while Iowa’s $5.0 billion Canada figure is for 2024. The percentages should be read as year-specific, not as a single synchronized forecast.
  • USDA’s Iowa agricultural-export estimate and Commerce goods-export statistics are methodologically different and should not be summed.
  • Export concentration identifies potential exposure. It does not establish that tariffs, disease, or a recession will occur, nor does it predict the size of a future decline.

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