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India’s leading quick-commerce platforms could see net order value (NOV) grow by as much as 21.6% quarter on quarter in Q2FY27, while food-delivery order value is forecast to grow around 18% year on year. Those are forecasts attributed to Emkay in an ANI report carried by The Tribune—not reported results. The two figures also use different comparison periods, so they should not be read as a direct growth-rate comparison.
What Emkay’s forecast says
The ANI/The Tribune coverage attributes two expectations to an Emkay report:
- Quick commerce: NOV for leading platforms could rise by as much as 21.6% quarter on quarter in Q2FY27. “As much as” is an upper-end forecast, not a claim that every platform will achieve that rate.
- Food delivery: order value is expected to grow around 18% year on year.
The report is not available in the cited coverage, which does not provide its full methodology, assumptions, platform-level estimates or a forecast range beyond “as much as.” The figures are therefore best treated as Emkay’s reported expectations, not independently verified outcomes.
Why the growth rates are not directly comparable
The quick-commerce estimate is quarter on quarter and refers to NOV; the food-delivery estimate is year on year and described as order-value growth. A quarter-on-quarter rate measures change from the preceding quarter, while a year-on-year rate compares with the same period a year earlier. Seasonal patterns and the comparison base can affect each rate differently.
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The ANI/The Tribune story also prints the phrase “Rs 18% NOV growth” for food delivery, while its preceding description gives the figure as around 18% year-on-year order-value growth. Because that wording is unclear, the food-delivery figure here is presented as the article’s stated around-18% year-on-year expectation, rather than treating the ambiguous phrase as a more precise metric definition.
What the report says could drive quick-commerce growth
The coverage says Emkay sees consolidation taking place in quick commerce and expects higher minimum order values and reduced discounts at some platforms to redirect demand toward competitors. It also anticipates stronger competition during the festive season.
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This describes the report’s interpretation of customer switching, not a demonstrated causal result. The article does not quantify how many customers might switch, identify the platforms involved, or show the effect on order volumes, average order value or margins. A higher order value, on its own, does not establish that a platform is gaining more orders or becoming more profitable.
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Company results offer context, not confirmation
Recent company-reported figures indicate growth in both businesses, but they cover different periods and metrics from Emkay’s forecast.
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| Source and period | Reported figure | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Swiggy, quarter ended December 31, 2025 | Food-delivery GOV grew 20.5% year on year; Instamart GOV grew 103% year on year. | Company-reported gross order value (GOV) growth for Swiggy’s food-delivery and quick-commerce businesses. |
| Eternal Limited FY26 annual-report content, published in 2026 | Blinkit NOV grew 117% year on year to INR 48,567 crore; food-delivery NOV grew 16% to INR 37,993 crore. | Company-specific NOV growth and value for FY26. |
GOV and NOV are distinct measures, and these company results are not the same as Emkay’s leading-platform Q2FY27 forecast. The reported figures show company performance for their stated periods; they do not establish whether the forecast will be met.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Longer-term market estimates are separate forecasts
Other published estimates describe the potential scale of India’s quick-commerce market, but they are not part of Emkay’s near-term forecast and should not be combined as though they used the same scope or method.
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- Redseer and Google: an October 2026 report page projects the market could grow from about USD 13 billion in FY26 to about USD 90 billion by FY31P. It also estimates the channel could rise from about 1% to 4–5% of Indian retail. The report describes a survey of more than 1,200 people across metro and non-metro cities, more than 50 in-store interactions and Redseer’s proprietary benchmarks.
- Equirus: an estimate reported by ANI/The Economic Times puts India quick commerce at INR 1.08 lakh crore in 2026, growing 40% year on year. This is a separate estimate with its own scope and method.
These market-size projections answer a broader question than the Emkay numbers: they estimate the scale of the overall channel over a longer horizon, rather than a quarter’s NOV growth among leading platforms.
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How to read the forecast
- Treat 21.6% as a reported upper-end quarter-on-quarter NOV forecast for leading quick-commerce platforms in Q2FY27, not as an actual result or a forecast for every operator.
- Keep the food-delivery estimate separate: it is reported as around 18% year-on-year order-value growth.
- Read the switching and festive-season points as Emkay’s stated interpretation and outlook; the coverage does not provide platform-level evidence or quantify their effects.
- Use the company results and broader market estimates as context only, preserving their stated periods, metrics and scopes.
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