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India’s Ministry of Steel has published a draft National Steel Policy with a 2047 horizon. It projects 604 million tonnes (MT) of crude steel capacity by then, alongside separate figures for production, finished-steel demand, per-capita consumption, exports and emissions intensity. The document is a proposal, not an adopted policy: the Ministry is inviting feedback through October 30, 2026.
What the draft projects for 2047
The Ministry’s draft sets out a larger steel industry and higher domestic consumption as long-term goals. Its figures describe different measures, so they should not be treated as interchangeable estimates of how much steel India will make or use.
| Measure | Draft figure | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Crude steel capacity | 604 MT by 2047 | The industry’s planned ability to produce crude steel, not its actual output. |
| Crude steel production | 531 MT by 2047 | Projected crude steel output. |
| Finished steel demand | 505 MT by 2047 | Projected demand for finished steel products; it is not the same measure as crude steel production. |
| Per-capita steel consumption | 302 kg by 2047 | The draft projects an increase from 116 kg in FY2025-26. |
| Steel exports | 45 MT by 2047 | The draft’s export objective. |
| Average emissions intensity | 1.54 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of crude steel by 2047 | The draft’s intensity objective, compared with its stated current average of 2.54 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of crude steel. |
These are projections and objectives in the Ministry of Steel’s draft, not results already achieved. The figures also use different bases: capacity and production refer to crude steel, while demand refers to finished steel. The export figure is a separate objective; the draft’s headline numbers should not be added or subtracted as if they were a single, fully reconciled material balance.
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The Ministry identifies construction and infrastructure as the largest sources of steel consumption, accounting for around 67% in the draft. It links future demand to continued building and investment in housing, transport, manufacturing, renewable energy, clean mobility and digital infrastructure. A sustained rise in consumption would require steelmaking capacity as well as transport, processing and supply systems capable of serving those uses.
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The Ministry’s historical context records crude steel production rising from about 89 MT in 2014–15 to 170 MT in 2025–26, and finished steel consumption increasing from 77 MT to 164 MT over the same period. These are figures presented as past industry growth, not outcomes caused by the draft policy.
Raw materials and transport are major constraints
The draft says raw materials account for around 65–70% of steelmaking costs and reports that India imports nearly 92% of its coking coal. It projects 2047 requirements of 772 MT of iron ore and demand of 236 MT of coking coal. Iron ore, coking coal, scrap and finished steel serve different roles in the supply chain; the figures are not interchangeable measures of steel output.
To improve security of supply, the draft proposes domestic mining, expansion of coal washeries, overseas asset acquisition, long-term supply arrangements and optimisation of coal blends. It also calls for stronger scrap collection and recycling, which could provide an additional feedstock for steelmaking.
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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsMoving bulk minerals reliably is another challenge. Business Standard’s account of the draft reports a proposal to expand iron-ore slurry pipeline capacity from around 18 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) to more than 299 MTPA by 2047. The same account identifies practical obstacles such as approvals, land, local opposition, water use and environmental constraints. The proposed expansion is not evidence that the pipelines have been built or that those obstacles have been resolved.
Secondary steel and quality measures
The Ministry’s draft describes about 2,550 secondary-sector units in FY2025–26, accounting for nearly 47% of crude steel production capacity. It proposes support for raw materials, technology upgrades, skills and safety, as well as downstream clusters. Because the cited share is of capacity, it should not be read as the sector’s share of actual production.
The policy also proposes stronger quality standards and conformity assessment, import monitoring and action against substandard steel, while seeking to strengthen exports. These are planned policy measures; the draft does not establish that every proposed system is already operating.
How the draft proposes to cut emissions
The draft presents decarbonisation alongside industry growth. Its 2047 objective is an average intensity of 1.54 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of crude steel, and it sets out a direction toward net zero by 2070. The intensity figure is emissions per tonne of crude steel, not total emissions from the sector.
The proposed transition is phased. Early measures include improving energy efficiency, using renewable electricity and increasing scrap use. The draft also points to advanced steelmaking technologies, hydrogen-based direct reduced iron and carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS). These options differ in the infrastructure and inputs they require; the draft sets out a policy direction, not proof that any one pathway is ready to deliver the full target at scale.
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Beyond steelmaking equipment, the draft proposes digital systems for oversight and planning. These include AI-supported import monitoring, a national steel data platform and wider digital infrastructure. Such tools could help officials track trade and industry information, but their effectiveness would depend on implementation, reliable data and the ability to act on what the systems report.
The proposal also covers research and innovation, international cooperation, workforce training and industrial safety. It calls for a Steel Industry Safety Council and Directorate, skills assessments and upgrades to training centres. These proposals recognise that expanding capacity depends on people, standards and institutions as well as investment in plants and raw materials.
What happens next
The Ministry of Steel’s consultation page invites suggestions on the draft through October 30, 2026. The consultation is still open as of October 11, 2026, and the draft may change in response to feedback. The available material does not establish a final policy text, an approval date or future implementation results.
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